In December, the domestic market entered a low season for steel consumption, and steel output fell. Affected by the slight rise in steel prices and the impact of winter storage, iron ore prices have risen. In the later period, the steel output will also decrease, the iron ore port inventory will rise slightly, the oversupply situation in the iron ore market will further manifest, and the iron ore price will be difficult to continue to rise, and it will show a volatile operating trend.

 

　　1. China's iron ore price index turns from falling to rising

 

　　According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, at the end of December, the China Iron Ore Price Index (CIOPI) was 253.39 points, an increase of 11.47 points month-on-month, or an increase of 4.74%. Among them: the domestic iron ore price index was 238.94 points, a decrease of 9.44 points month-on-month, or a decrease of 3.80%; the imported iron ore price index was 255.57 points, a month-on-month increase of 14.62 points, or an increase of 6.07%.

 

　　Looking at the average level of the whole month, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) is generally lower than last month. In December, the average CIOPI composite index was 248.73 points, a decrease of 14.57 points or 5.53% from the previous month. Among them: the average domestic iron ore price index was 238.88 points, a decrease of 16.22 points from the previous month, a decrease of 6.36%; the average value of the imported iron ore price index was 250.22 points, a decrease of 14.32 points month on month, or a decrease of 5.41%.

 

　　2. The domestic iron ore concentrate continues to decline, and the price of imported fines has risen

 

　　At the end of December, the tax-included price of domestically produced iron ore concentrates of CIOPI was 614.84 yuan / ton, a month-on-month decrease of 24.29 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.80%; the CIF price of imported CIOPI fines was US $ 69.03 / ton, an increase of US $ 3.95 / ton, or It was 6.07%.

 

　　Looking at the average level of the whole month, the average tax-included price of domestic iron ore concentrates was 614.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 41.75 yuan / ton from the previous month, a decrease of 6.36%. Among them: from December 3 to December 10, the fluctuation fluctuated from 624.77 yuan / ton to 605.38 yuan / ton, and from December 10 to the end of December, the shock increased from 605.38 yuan / ton to 614.84 yuan / ton.

 

　　The average CIF price of imported fines was US $ 67.58 / ton, a decrease of US $ 3.87 / ton from the previous month, a decrease of 5.41%. Among them: from December 3 to December 11, the shock operation from 66.26 USD / ton to 66.06 USD / ton, from December 11 to the end of December, from 66.06 USD / ton to 69.03 USD / ton.

 

　　3.Analysis of iron ore price trend in the later period

 

　　Since the beginning of winter, downstream demand will weaken, iron and steel production will further decline, the intensity of iron ore demand will decline, and inventory will change from falling to rising. Iron ore is still in a situation of oversupply, and prices will continue to rise.

 

　　1, the production of pig iron and crude steel fell month-on-month, and the intensity of iron ore demand fell

 

　　According to the statistics published by the Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel by member steel companies in the first half of December was 1,862,300 tons, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel was 2,385,800 tons, a decrease of 7.69% from November. The month fell 6.70%. The output of crude steel and pig iron decreased month-on-month, and the intensity of iron ore demand declined slightly.

 

　　2, iron ore port deposits have changed from falling to rising, the situation of oversupply has not changed

 

　　At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore ports nationwide was 142 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons month-on-month, or an increase of 0.86%; the overall level is still relatively high; the cumulative iron ore imports from January to November this year were 978 million tons, and Last year was pretty much the same. Overall, the oversupply situation in the iron ore market has not changed much.

 

　　3, steel prices fluctuate within a narrow range, and iron ore prices are difficult to rise significantly

 

　　According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) at the end of December was 107.12 points, an increase of 0.73 points or 0.69% from the end of November. From the perspective of each week, the price of steel products fluctuated in a narrow range, and it was difficult for the market to rebound significantly in the later period. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China ’s manufacturing purchasing manager (PMI) was 49.4% in December, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, and was below the threshold for the first time during the year. Overall, it is difficult for the iron ore price to rise sharply in the later period, and it will fluctuate.