浙江之源资产评估有限责任公司
Global Mining Analysis for 2025 and the Current Status of China’s Listed Mining Companies, along with a Ten-Year Outlook
Release time:
2025-09-10
Source:
Published by the author on August 28. Great Power Game ｜ “The Latest U.S. Mineral Resource Allocation and Its Implications and Insights for China” has received an overwhelming response. At the request of our fans, this account will continue to closely monitor the mineral industry and regularly update a series of articles on this topic. If you’re interested, please follow us, add us to your favorites, and stay tuned! Additionally, the authoritative reports featured in each article will be uploaded to Knowledge Star. If you’d like to access these research reports, please scan the QR code at the end of the article to join Knowledge Star.
Introduction: 2025 This year, the global economy continues to face mounting pressures from low growth, trade barriers, and inflationary pressures. The importance of mineral resources as strategic commodities has become increasingly prominent, prompting countries to accelerate their efforts in resource nationalism and supply-chain security strategies.
This article, drawing on authoritative sources such as PwC, EY, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Transparency International, and Nature, systematically analyzes the global mining landscape, the current state of China’s mining industry, and prospects for the next decade. It also offers policy recommendations and insights at both the policy and corporate levels. 
Global Overview of Critical Minerals:
According to the "MINERAL COMMODITY SUMMARIES 2025" released by the U.S. Geological Survey on January 31, 2025, global copper reserves are relatively concentrated, with most of them located in South America and central Africa. The country with the largest copper reserves is Chile, accounting for approximately 19.4% of the world's total reserves. The top five countries in terms of copper reserves—Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—are collectively responsible for 56.2% of global copper reserves. China’s copper reserves account for about 4.2% of the global total. As for bauxite reserves, Guinea holds the largest share, accounting for roughly 25.5% of the world’s total reserves. The top five countries in bauxite reserves—Guinea, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil—collectively account for 67.3% of global bauxite reserves, with China’s bauxite reserves representing approximately 2.3% of the global total. In terms of the global distribution of lithium resources, Chile has the largest share at 31.0%, followed by Australia, Argentina, China, and the United States, which together account for 83.6% of the world’s total lithium reserves. The countries with the largest gold reserves are Australia and Russia, each accounting for roughly 18.8% of the global total; they are followed by South Africa, Indonesia, and Canada. The top five countries in gold reserves collectively hold 56.0% of the global total. Global rare earth mineral resources are relatively concentrated, with China holding the largest share of rare earth reserves, accounting for about 48.4% of the global total. Brazil, India, Australia, and Russia follow closely behind, together accounting for 89.6% of the global total rare earth reserves.
China holds the world’s largest reserves of rare-earth minerals among the metals mentioned above. As for the other metals, their global reserve shares are relatively small—particularly bauxite, copper, and gold, each accounting for less than 5% of the global reserves. Even lithium reserves account for only 10.0%. As a populous country undergoing rapid development, China falls far short of meeting its domestic consumption needs.
The Global Mining Environment: Macro and Geopolitical Impacts
Global mining performance weakened in 2024: With the exception of gold, revenue and EBITDA of the world’s leading mining companies declined by 3% and 10%, respectively. The energy transition and emerging technologies are driving rapid growth in demand for critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements. At the same time, a global economic slowdown and rising resource nationalism in various countries are accelerating the restructuring of supply chains.
The PwC report points out that urbanization, the energy technology transition, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global mining landscape, prompting countries to successively introduce both incentive and restrictive measures. For example, the United States regards critical minerals as strategic national resources; its draft list for 2025 covers 54 types of minerals, encouraging domestic mining and smelting operations and promoting “friend-shoring” supply chains, with the aim of reducing reliance on competitors—such as China.
Countries have also been actively establishing national lists of critical minerals and conducting supply-chain risk assessments, while proactively planning domestic investments and promoting recycling initiatives. Moreover, multi-party alliances have begun collaborating in the mineral sector: In July 2025, the foreign ministers of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia announced the “Quad Critical Minerals Initiative” in Washington, D.C., pledging to work together to ensure the secure supply of critical materials such as rare earth elements and to address the risks associated with supply chains dominated by a single country.
The Sino-U.S. Mining Game: Capital Flows and Supply-Chain Dominance
The competition between China and the United States in the mining sector is intensifying. On one hand, the U.S. and its allies are seizing resources by signing strategic cooperation agreements: in May 2025, the U.S. signed a strategic minerals cooperation agreement with Ukraine, bringing Ukraine’s abundant rare-earth resources into the scope of collaboration to bolster the supply of raw materials for U.S. high-tech industries and reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths. On the other hand, the Chinese government is also strengthening its control over strategic minerals: from late 2024 to early 2025, China announced export bans on key materials such as antimony, gallium, and germanium, while significantly increasing investment in refining capacity for new-energy metals like cobalt. China remains the world’s leading producer of many critical minerals and boasts the world’s highest capacity for deep processing: for instance, China is the global hub for processing key battery materials (nickel, cobalt, and manganese), accounting for 69% of global mineral extraction and 92% of global processing capacity.
In light of this, the U.S., Europe, and other countries are closely monitoring China’s dominant position in rare earths and high-tech materials and have proposed diversification strategies for supply chains. These strategies include developing alternative mineral sources in regions such as Australia, North America, and Japan, as well as accelerating the construction of related processing plants. Overall, in the future, supply-chain security will take precedence over optimal economic efficiency, and the trend toward resource nationalism will be difficult to reverse in the short term. Against this backdrop, capital flows are also becoming increasingly divergent: Chinese mining capital continues to expand overseas. From 2021 to the first quarter of 2025, Chinese enterprises have accumulated approximately US$15.4 billion in mergers and acquisitions in the global mining sector, with major investments concentrated in Canada, Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, and Argentina. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are accelerating the development of domestic and nearshore mining resources through government guidance and market investment.
China’s Mining Enterprises’ Overseas Expansion and ESG Challenges
Chinese mining companies have significantly enhanced their global standing in the mineral sector: Over the past two decades, China’s economic growth has driven up demand for minerals, making China a major producer and consumer of numerous mineral resources. Against the backdrop of the clean energy transition, China’s overseas mining investments have been concentrated on critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel.
Chinese companies with interests in critical minerals:
As of 2024, 81 Chinese mining companies have participated in 180 projects worldwide. Among these, there are 4 key mineral projects in Chile, 19 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 16 in Indonesia, and 6 in Zambia. Other major projects are concentrated in countries such as Australia, Canada, and South Africa.
For example, Tianqi Lithium’s lithium production in Chile and Australia accounts for approximately 11% of the global total; Luoyang LuanChuan’s cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil, and Indonesia accounts for roughly 9% of the global total. In Southeast Asia and Pacific Island countries, Chinese enterprises are also actively involved in the exploration and processing of resources such as nickel, copper, and polymetallic nodules.
China’s mining projects in selected regions around the world:
However, Chinese mining companies’ overseas expansion also faces numerous social responsibility and governance challenges. In many countries, inadequate capacity for mine governance and risks such as political corruption may lead to adverse ecological and social impacts from mining activities. Chinese companies generally lack experience in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) matters: China’s existing regulatory framework for global business practices is limited, and many due-diligence guidelines remain voluntary in nature. Moreover, the mining sector in China is still dominated by state-owned enterprises that maintain close ties with the government, while industry associations play a more prominent role in setting rules. Transparency International points out that in countries where Chinese companies and projects are concentrated—such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, and Zambia—governance indicators tend to be low, transparency and accountability are insufficient, and these shortcomings can easily exacerbate the negative consequences of mining. In response to these issues, both industry insiders and policymakers are calling for stronger oversight of overseas projects—for instance, promoting transparency in contracts and owner information, establishing robust grievance mechanisms, and reinforcing the Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) process for local communities—to enhance the global governance standards of China’s mining sector.
Governance objectives of the countries where Chinese mining companies operate:
Current Status and Trends of Chinese Listed Mining Companies
Despite facing domestic and international pressures, Chinese listed mining and metals companies have maintained generally stable performance.
In 2024, these companies achieved operating revenues of approximately RMB 2.8447 trillion, up 1.5% year-on-year; their net profits totaled about RMB 319.2 billion, down 2.3% from the previous year. Looking at specific sectors, performance was sharply polarized: revenue and profits in metal sectors such as gold, aluminum, and copper all rose, while sectors including coal, lithium, and rare earths saw significant declines. Among them, lithium products experienced a sharp price drop due to slowing growth in the global electric vehicle and energy storage markets and severe supply overcapacity. As a result, lithium product sales revenue in 2024 fell by 57.9% compared to the previous year, and net profits plummeted by more than 100% year-on-year. In Forbes’ 2024 Global 2000 list of the world’s largest public companies, 14 Chinese mining firms made the list (including Shandong Gold, which entered the ranking for the first time). Among these, companies primarily focused on gold and copper saw their rankings rise, whereas coal and lithium companies generally experienced lower rankings.
In terms of financial metrics, the efficiency of Chinese listed mining companies has been steadily improving: the days sales outstanding (DSO) for accounts receivable increased from 100 days in 2022 to 136 days in 2024, still lagging behind that of the world’s six largest mining companies; the operating cash ratio rose from 14.6% in 2022 to 17.4% in 2024, indicating an improvement in earnings quality. Thanks to the domestic financial environment, financing costs have steadily declined to around 3.5%, significantly lower than the global average for the same period.
The effective tax rate has continued to decline due to domestic preferential policies; however, with the implementation of the global minimum tax rule under Pillar Two, future tax burdens could rise. In terms of strategic opportunities, domestic policies are driving a green transition, and mining companies are accelerating their deployment of green, low-carbon technologies and circular economy practices (such as comprehensive utilization of mineral resources and recycling of mine solid wastes).
Overall, EY expects that future mining opportunities will outweigh risks. Mining companies need to pay close attention to challenges such as the “state advances, private sector retreats” trend in resource-rich countries, rising taxes and fees, and the emergence of “mineral alliances,” while actively exploring new technologies and markets.
Prospects for Mineral Resource Competition from 2025 to 2035
Looking ahead to the next decade, competition for mineral resources will intensify further. On the one hand, countries will continue to vie for dominance in supply chains around critical minerals; the U.S. is emphasizing strategic self-sufficiency, and “friend-shoring” cooperation will benefit major mineral-producing nations such as Australia. On the other hand, global demand will remain robust, particularly for rare earth elements, copper, and nickel—minerals closely linked to the energy transition, national defense, and the digital economy—which are expected to keep rising. PwC believes that amid geopolitical tensions, resource nationalism will become the new norm, and the goal of ensuring supply security will remain unshaken before 2035. To address this challenge, technological innovation and alternative approaches will become crucial pathways. For instance, both China and Western countries are accelerating exploration and development of deep-sea minerals—including polymetallic nodules, sulfides, and cobalt-rich crusts.
Studies indicate that deep-sea mining may have lower environmental impacts than traditional land-based mining in terms of freshwater use and land occupation. However, given the fragility of deep-sea ecosystems, their long-term impacts still need to be thoroughly assessed, and development should proceed with utmost caution. Moreover, urban mines—where resources are recycled—hold enormous potential: for instance, metals such as copper can be repeatedly recovered and reused, and the recycling rate for mature resources has historically reached as high as 30%. Reprocessed waste rock and tailings will also become important sources of supply. Over the next decade, the mining industry must not only focus on developing new mineral deposits but also strengthen cooperation and innovation in technology, regulation, and social responsibility. Technologies such as digitalization, low-grade ore leaching, and intelligent exploration will enhance resource efficiency, while international collaboration will promote diversification and sustainable development of mineral supply chains.
An Analytical Framework for the Seven Core Drivers and Impacts of the Mining Industry in 2035:
Policy and Corporate-Level Recommendations
I. At the mining enterprise level:
1. Co-build infrastructure with local governments and communities to promote long-term mutual benefits.
Mining companies can collaborate with local communities and governments to jointly improve mutually beneficial infrastructure—including transportation, water supply, electricity, education, and healthcare—thus laying a solid foundation for the long-term sustainable development of mines.
2. Partner with universities to attract talent from Generation Z and Generation Alpha, and drive digital transformation.
Mining companies can collaborate with universities and educational institutions, encouraging... Z Digital natives from Generation Z (born 1995–2009) and Generation Alpha (born 2010–2024) are joining the mining industry.
II. National Level:
1. Establish a strategic mineral full-chain management system and promote coordination between national reserves and market reserves.
As soon as possible, we should establish a comprehensive, full-chain management system for China’s strategic mineral resources that leverage our competitive advantages. We must directly cut off supplies and restrict access to these resources for foreign entities that pose threats to national security, and impose restrictions or outright bans on material and component suppliers that rely on China’s strategically important minerals to provide supporting products and services. By tightening the entire chain—from minerals and technology to human resources—we will establish all-around control measures. We will crack down rigorously on illegal smuggling and entrepôt trade to ensure that export controls remain effective. We should promote the establishment of a coordinated and complementary mechanism between national reserves and market-based reserves of strategic minerals, further optimize the system for controlling total production volume, and refine the strategic mineral reserve system featuring “central leadership, local coordination, and enterprise participation.” We will strengthen the development of domestic and overseas mineral sources, maintain secure production capacity, and stabilize market price expectations. We should explore signing multilateral framework agreements with ASEAN, the African Union, and other regional organizations, thereby weaving a dense network of global governance partnerships centered on our advantageous resources and expanding our strategic maneuvering space. We will establish a trading market for strategic minerals, release critical price information for China’s key strategic mineral sectors, and foster the formation of a rational international pricing mechanism. In doing so, we will strive to secure our rightful role as a “strategic seller” in shaping the global pricing system, endeavoring to transform our strategic mineral resource advantages into economic strengths and gradually enhance the profitability of China’s mining industry.
2. Strengthen R&D investment, break through technological bottlenecks, and enhance our global voice.
In 2024, among the top 100 enterprises, 17 listed companies that have already released relevant data invested a total of 4.226 billion yuan in R&D expenses, a decrease of 12.8% compared to 2023. However, the intensity of R&D investment rose from 16.1% in 2023 to 16.8% in 2024. Among these companies, nine invested over 100 million yuan in R&D, and one invested over 1 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2025, the 17 companies collectively spent 951 million yuan on R&D, an increase of 1.2% over the same period in 2024. The intensity of R&D investment reached as high as 21.2% during this quarter, and seven companies each invested more than 50 million yuan in a single quarter. Under the current international environment, cross-border technological collaboration is weakening, and the traditional benefits of economies of scale are diminishing. Coupled with macroeconomic fluctuations, capital is showing a “risk-averse contraction,” leaving geographic information enterprises increasingly exposed to the growing risk of an expanding innovation investment gap.
3. Improve the regulation of the mining rights market and introduce a premium-triggering circuit breaker mechanism to guard against speculative risks.
The core reason behind the current phenomenon of high premiums for mining rights projects, such as gold mines, is that geopolitical turmoil and global economic uncertainty have reinforced gold’s safe-haven appeal. As a result, capital is fiercely competing to secure exploration rights in order to lock in upstream resources, thereby driving up premiums. At the same time, coupled with the policy orientation of the country’s new round of strategic initiatives aimed at breakthroughs in mineral exploration, resource-rich regions like Inner Mongolia have become hotspots for capital deployment, fueling irrational bidding behavior. Some investors are participating in auctions primarily for short-term arbitrage rather than for long-term development value, causing prices to diverge from the actual resource potential. Behind these high-premium transactions, there may be leveraged financing; if project progress runs into difficulties... which can easily trigger a chain reaction of debt. Therefore, in the future, natural resource authorities at all levels should, in the process of granting mining rights, strengthen risk disclosure... Regulatory measures such as disclosing the success rate of specific survey projects and introducing a premium-triggered circuit breaker mechanism (e.g., suspending trading when bidding exceeds a threshold) can guide the market back to adhering to the law of value and prevent recurrence of sharp market fluctuations caused by corporate bankruptcies following speculative booms in mining rights.
III. At the International Governance Level:
1. Enhance transparency and compliance disclosure mechanisms (establish a traceable governance foundation).
• Promote the disclosure of contracts and cash flows, register beneficial ownership, and proactively join and implement international transparency initiatives such as the EITI.
• Issue unified compliance codes of conduct and operational guidelines for both foreign-invested and domestic enterprises, reducing information asymmetry and facilitating mutual recognition of regulatory oversight.
2. Strengthen regulatory oversight, anti-corruption efforts, and accountability mechanisms (to address the risks of systemic corruption and abuse of power).
• Establish an anti-corruption and anti-bribery system covering the entire lifecycle, strengthen regulation of politically exposed persons (PEPs), lobbying, and political donations, and prevent “revolving doors” and the transfer of interests.
• Establish an independent and enforceable complaints and enforcement mechanism (including whistleblower protection), aligning local complaint mechanisms with the effectiveness standards set forth in the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights.
3. Safeguarding community rights and inclusive participation (social license centered on FPIC)
• Mandate the implementation of Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC), and systematically integrate gender impact assessments and protection measures for vulnerable groups into environmental and social impact assessments.
• Establish participatory community consultation and capacity-building mechanisms, promote knowledge sharing among experienced civil society organizations and enterprises, and ensure that affected communities can effectively participate, lodge complaints, and share in the benefits of development.
[References]:
• EY. 2024 Review and Future Outlook Report on China’s Listed Mining and Metals Companies. Beijing: EY, 2025.
• Transparency International (Australia). Digging Deeper: Understanding the Global... China Mining. 2024.
• USGS (United States Geological Survey). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. U.S. Department of the Interior, 2025.
• PwC. Mine 2025: Focusing on the future. PwC, June 2025.
• Al Jazeera Chinese. “U.S. and Its Allies Launch Joint Initiative to Counter China’s Dominance in the Rare Earths Sector.” July 3, 2025.
• North American Intellectual Property News. “Rare Earth Competition as Seen Through the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement.” May 16, 2025.
• Technology Industry Information Center (iKnow). A New Chapter in the U.S. Critical Minerals Strategy: Supply-Chain Reconfiguration and the Rising Role of Australia. August 2025.
• National Bureau of Statistics of China. 2024 Statistics on Profits of Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size in China.
Links:
Address: Room 909, 9th Floor, Science & Technology Building, Eastern Software Park, No. 90 Wensan Road, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province Telephone:0571-85115488
Scan with your phone
Open the mobile website