Analysis of the Global Coal Market Situation and Outlook
Release time:
2016-08-02
Source:
China Investment Consulting Network, June 28, 2016
In recent years, the global supply of resources and environmental carrying capacity have become increasingly pressing. While energy demand continues to grow overall, the world has begun transitioning toward a low-carbon future, and the energy mix is undergoing significant changes. Against this backdrop of energy transition, the coal industry finds itself in markedly different situations across developed and emerging economies. Governments are implementing policy adjustments—either suppressing or boosting—the coal sector, while coal companies face intense competitive pressures and survival challenges, prompting them to adopt various coping strategies.
Today, the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, and North America are both major coal-producing regions and major coal-consuming regions. According to... 6 Moon 8 Released on the day 2016 《 BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook, 2015 The world's coal production for the year was 78.61 100 million tons, down from the previous year. 4% , China accounts for a share of the world's total output. 47.7% , up from the previous year 0.5 percentage points. Countries with production exceeding 100 million tons include: 10 These are, sorted by quantity: China, the United States, India, Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, Germany, Poland, and Kazakhstan.
2015 Year, global coal consumption was 38.4 100 million tons of oil equivalent, down from the previous year. 1.8% Among them, China accounts for a certain percentage of the world’s total coal consumption. 50% , up from the previous year 0.2 percentage points; India has surpassed the United States to become the world’s second-largest coal consumer; Russia and Indonesia both saw their consumption rankings rise compared to the previous year. The top ten countries in terms of coal consumption are China, India, the United States, Japan, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Indonesia, Germany, and Poland.
These regions are home to some of the world’s major developed and emerging economies. The two groups exhibit distinct differences in their coal consumption patterns. Industry analysts believe that China will continue to be the world’s largest coal market, and... 2035 China will consume nearly half of the world’s coal supply this year. India has shown the largest growth in coal consumption, overtaking the United States to become the world’s second-largest coal consumer. More than two-thirds of India’s new coal demand will be directed toward the power sector.
Meanwhile, coal demand in the United States and OECD countries in Europe is expected to decline by more than... 50% This is mainly attributable to the abundant supply of natural gas, the declining costs of renewable energy, and stricter environmental regulations.
Currently, developed economies have entered the post-industrial era, with their economic development increasingly less reliant on energy-intensive heavy industries. Coupled with the shift in power generation toward green and clean sources, the demand for coal in these economies is on a downward trend. Consequently, policies related to coal are primarily focused on reducing financial support for coal projects, setting emission limits, and phasing out coal usage.
Looking at Europe and the Americas, coal is currently being phased out gradually or rapidly. 2016 Year 5 Last month, documents disclosed by Germany’s Ministry of Environment showed that, in order to achieve climate goals, 2050 Before the end of the year, Germany’s coal-fired power plants will cease operations, and the development of renewable energy sources should be accelerated accordingly. Currently, this document is awaiting approval from Germany’s Ministry of Environment. Several other European countries have also announced plans to phase out coal usage gradually.
2016 Year 3 This month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released the country’s grid expansion plan for this year, which shows zero planned additions for coal-fired power plants. In other words, 2016 The U.S. has no plans to build any new coal-fired power plants this year. It’s also worth noting the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2015 Year 8 Clean Power Plan issued this month (CPP) This plan is the first nationwide initiative in the United States to cap carbon pollution from coal-fired power plants.
Meanwhile, emerging economies are in the rapid development phase of heavy industrialization. Their energy-intensive economic structures rely heavily on cheap energy sources, thus maintaining robust demand for various energy resources—including coal. Consequently, coal-related policies are primarily focused on increasing coal production, developing coal-fired power plants, and boosting the overall coal industry.
On the Indian side, India plans to... 2020 The annual coal production will double, increasing to... 15 hundred million tons. Among them, 10 A production volume of 100 million tons by India’s state-owned coal company. (CIL) Achieve, additionally 5 India hopes to have private enterprises carry out the production task of hundreds of millions of tons. In addition, 2015-16 India's annual coal imports 2.058 100 million tons, an increase compared to the same period last year. 2.75% Throughout the year, its total imports have surpassed China's coal imports for the same period, making it the world’s largest coal-importing country.
On the Japanese side, 5 Moon 26 Day, G7 The summit kicked off in the Ise-Shima region of Japan. Yet surprisingly, Japan—boasting its “cleanliness”—is actively expanding coal-fired power generation this year. 2 Month, the Japanese Environmental Agency approved the future. 12 Annual projected construction 43 a coal-fired power plant. Currently, Japan has a total of 90 Coal-fired facilities with a total capacity of 40.5 Giga. To 2028 The number will increase again this year. 50 Seat, the total installed capacity is expected to reach 61 Giga.
The current situation of coal enterprises in various economies corresponds to the state of their coal industries and related policies. In developed economies that are gradually phasing out and eliminating coal, coal enterprises are facing an existential crisis—some are going bankrupt, while others struggle to survive. Even major conglomerates and industry giants are accelerating the divestment of their coal businesses or assets. Meanwhile, in emerging economies where demand for coal remains strong, coal enterprises are rolling out plans to expand production and investment.
Against the backdrop of both climate risks and future financial risks associated with investing in the coal industry, international consortiums are withdrawing their investments, while major energy companies are accelerating the divestment from or exit of their coal businesses. According to Reuters, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund—boasting 8630 The billion-dollar Norwegian central bank’s investment management company has sold from its portfolio. 52 shares in coal-related companies, and is expected to divest from more coal-related companies in its investment portfolio, said Martin, Greenpeace’s climate and energy advisor. ? Norman said it was likely the largest coal asset divestiture ever undertaken.
In contrast, some emerging economies such as India and Indonesia are pursuing expansion plans. India’s state-owned coal company is the world’s largest coal producer, and the Indian Parliament has stated that, over the next five years, India’s state-owned coal company will invest... 5700 Billion rupees (545.49 100 million yuan ) The company’s coal production will increase to... 9.081 Hundred million tons; Indonesian state-owned coal company Bukit Asam To boost production, the company has set targets to— 2016 By the end of the year, production reached 2575 Ten thousand tons or more 2015 Actual annual production 1924 Ten-thousand-ton lift 34%。
In the short term, coal will remain a key player in the global electricity market, contributing to the growth of global energy demand. In the long term, however, it will gradually be replaced by other fuel sources such as natural gas. At the same time, the survival and development of the coal industry call for the development and widespread adoption of clean coal technologies.
Benjamin, Chairman of the World Coal Association ? Spurton stated that, globally, by... 2040 The trend of coal-fired power plants remains on the rise globally. Specifically, China may gradually stabilize, while India continues to grow. Many Asian countries will keep expanding, whereas European nations are likely to experience steady, albeit volatile, development. Under the pressure of global warming, for those countries that still rely on coal—a cheap energy source—to fuel their economic growth, the only viable path forward—while meeting energy demands and minimizing environmental damage—is to develop effective technologies that can make coal cleaner and greener, rather than simply phasing it out.
Glencore, the Swiss mining and commodities trading giant 6 Moon 13 On the day, it released its first sustainability report, stating that by... 2030 This year, global coal demand is expected to increase. 7% , to reach 60 100 million tons of standard coal. Glencore believes that the primary driver behind the continued growth in coal demand is the ongoing construction of low-cost coal-fired power plants in emerging markets. It is projected that by... 2030 This year, global cumulative coal demand will... 190-210 hundred million tons. Meanwhile, by... 2030 In the year, demand for non-fossil fuels will increase to 53% However, the total electricity generated from renewable energy sources still falls short of coal-fired power generation.