Introduction: According to estimates by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), global copper mine capacity reached 24.2 million tons in 2016, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.31%—the highest annual growth rate in five years. Among this, refined copper concentrate capacity rose by 1.1 million tons to 19 million tons.

　　The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) estimates that global copper mine capacity reached 24.2 million tons in 2016, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.31%—the highest annual growth rate in five years. Among this, refined copper concentrate capacity increased by 1.1 million tons to 19 million tons.

　　By region, Peru saw the largest increase in production capacity, primarily due to the anticipated commissioning of major copper mines such as Las Bambas and Cerro Verde II. Other regions, including China, Spain, and Iran, experienced relatively smaller increases.

　　However, Bloomberg’s statistical analysis of copper mines that expanded production from 2014 to 2018 shows that the arithmetic average grade of newly commissioned mines is 0.74%. Only 34% of these mines have grades exceeding this average. When weighted by capacity, the average grade comes out to 0.57%, confirming the expectation that the grades of the ultra-large-scale mines slated for commissioning are relatively low.

　　Looking at the expected costs of newly commissioned mines, the cost curve for these new mines remains relatively steep. When copper prices fall below US$4,400 per ton, more than 10% of these mines will be operating at a loss, potentially leading to delays in their planned commissioning. We forecast that global copper mine production in 2016 will reach 19.52 million tons, representing an increase of 2.6%, which is lower than the growth rate of mining capacity.