[Australia's Lowy Institute Interpreter Website] 11 Moon 19 Daily Article】Title: Witnessing the Arrival of a Global Turning Point: The Beginning of the End of the Coal Era

Currently, we may be experiencing a turning point in global coal consumption.

For years, the coal industry and its political supporters have stubbornly clung to their positions. “ Everything is as usual. ” the forecast. This forecast predicts that coal demand will continue to grow over the coming decades and firmly asserts that this prediction demonstrates a bright future for coal.

As the view that coal consumption has reached its peak gradually gains consensus, those who genuinely believe in the above prediction might be quite surprised. 9 In the month, Goldman Sachs predicted that global coal consumption will... 2020 It reached its peak before the new year. But currently, this estimate appears to be conservative. —16 The U.S.-Japan Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis pointed out that global coal consumption has likely already reached its peak. 2013 Reaches its peak annually.

Regardless of whether this claim ultimately proves to be accurate. ( For a period of time, we cannot be certain. ) However, the key data among them are astonishing.

According to an analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, China's coal consumption has declined year-on-year since the beginning of this year. 5.7% U.S. coal consumption declines 11% , Germany declines 3% , the UK declined 16% , Japan declines 3% , Canada declines 5% , Turkey declines 13% As the Russian economy enters a recession, we cannot expect its coal consumption to increase. Moreover, South Korea’s coal consumption remains flat, while Indonesia’s has declined. 2% , Mexico declines 1%。

Against this backdrop, only two major coal-consuming countries saw an increase in coal consumption: India, with year-on-year growth. 3% ~ 6% Meanwhile, Australia also saw a slight increase after abolishing the carbon tax.

There are several factors driving the rapid shift in coal’s future prospects. Regarding forecasts that coal has already reached its peak, the key influencing factor is long-term structural trends. A common factor is the global race to transition toward zero-emission wind and solar power generation, as well as... ( Especially in the United States. ) Low-emission natural gas power generation. Another factor is the tightening of controls on coal consumption; regulators have imposed stricter standards on emissions of carbon dioxide and certain pollutants, requiring companies to gradually internalize the environmental and social costs associated with their business operations.

These factors have varying impacts across different countries. Let’s take a look at the distinct situations in China, the United States, and India—the three largest coal-consuming countries, which together account for the majority of global coal consumption. 70% The above.

In China, as the decade-long boom in the construction industry and energy-intensive manufacturing comes to an end, China’s energy demand has slowed significantly, while... 2014 China’s coal consumption accounts for more than half of the global total. At the same time, growing public concern over air pollution is leading to stricter policy restrictions on coal consumption and prompting China to shift toward developing other energy sources. This year... 1-9 In the coming month, China's coal consumption is likely to decline year-on-year by approximately... 6% Even the International Energy Agency has acknowledged that its forecast of China’s growing demand for coal is completely outdated, and... “ The era of rapid growth in China's coal demand has come to an end. ”。

Last year, coal consumption accounted for the global... 11.7% In the U.S., declining natural gas prices, record growth in renewable energy, and flat electricity demand have led to a year-on-year decrease in coal consumption. 11%。

India (2014 Annual coal consumption accounts for the global... 9.3%) This year 1-9 The monthly electricity growth is only 3.1% Steel production has remained stagnant. This slow growth largely reflects the challenges facing India’s power system. (Source: Reference News Network)