2018 In the first half of the year, China’s nonferrous metals industry, facing a complex and intertwined domestic and international situation, adhered to the concept of innovative development, actively promoted high-quality growth, and earnestly implemented supply-side structural reforms. Overall, the production of the nonferrous metals industry remained stable. Production of the ten major nonferrous metals showed steady growth, while output from major nonferrous metal mines declined year-on-year. Alumina production shifted from negative growth to positive growth, copper-processed products saw steady growth, and the growth rate of aluminum-processed products slowed down significantly.

　　In the second half of the year, China’s nonferrous metals industry is expected to continue the steady performance seen in the first half. Wang Siran, deputy director of the Jinrui Futures Research Institute, believes that the macroeconomic environment in the second half will have a neutral-to-positive impact on nonferrous metals, and the relative strength of various nonferrous metal varieties—ranked from strongest to weakest—is as follows: nickel, copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and zinc.

　　The industry's production and operations are stable.

　　2018 In the first half of the year, the national output of ten non-ferrous metals 2684.63 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 3.15% The increase has slowed down compared to the same period last year. 4 percentage points, compared to this year 1 ~ 5 Monthly figures remained basically flat. Among them, refined copper production... 440.61 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 11.50% primary aluminum production 1646.84 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 1.57% , fall back 7.2 percentage points; lead production 241.54 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 9.48% , improve 4.5 percentage points; zinc production 282.01 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 0.01% , down from the same period last year 1.2% Alumina production 3334 Ten thousand tons, growth 1.1% , fall back 18.6 percentage point.

　　From an international perspective, in the first half of this year, the recovery momentum of major economies has continued to strengthen. The U.S. economy has staged a robust rebound, the European economy has sustained its upward trend, and Japan’s economy has maintained a moderate recovery. Meanwhile, emerging economies have seen their relative advantages gradually expand. However, the global economy still faces three major uncertainties: the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, structural issues in economic growth, and intensifying trade tensions. Among developed economies, the growth gap between the U.S., Europe, and Japan has widened somewhat.

　　From a domestic perspective, since the beginning of this year, China’s economic growth has continued its steady and improving trend, with solid progress in structural transformation and upgrading, and continuously improving quality. Supply-side structural reforms continue to advance, new drivers of growth keep strengthening, and China’s economy as a whole has maintained a stable and positive momentum—particularly in the first half of the year. GDP Year-on-year growth 6.8% Judging from the performance of macroeconomic indicators such as overall economic growth and urban unemployment rates, China’s economy is expected to maintain a steady yet progressive momentum in the coming period. However, we should also recognize that certain underlying concerns remain: domestic structural contradictions continue to be prominent, downward pressure on economic growth remains significant, growth in residents’ incomes remains relatively slow, and the sustained high growth in total retail sales of consumer goods is facing increasing pressure.

　　Looking at the non-ferrous metals industry, China's non-ferrous metals sector as a whole is experiencing stable production and operations. 2018 In the first half of the year, the nonferrous metals industry achieved total profits. 798.2 100 million yuan, down year-on-year 1.4% Affected by multiple factors—including a warming consumer market, increasingly stringent environmental regulations, and supply-side reforms that have led to supply shortages—the nonferrous metals industry as a whole has continued its generally stable operating trend. However, profits of nonferrous metals enterprises have declined significantly year-on-year, particularly among aluminum smelting companies, which have once again fallen into losses or are experiencing only minimal profitability. As the U.S.-China trade tensions continue to escalate, the international trade environment for the entire industry—especially for aluminum products exports—has steadily deteriorated, placing considerable pressure on exports. In addition, the situation of continued decline in investment in the nonferrous metals sector remains unchanged.

　　Listed companies in the colored metals sector are reporting strong profits.

　　2018 In the first half of the year, several listed non-ferrous metal companies reported strong profits due to rising product prices. According to the company’s recently released interim report, Chinalco achieved operating revenue in the first half of the year... 821 100 million yuan, down year-on-year 10.24% ; The total profit realized is 19.3 100 million yuan, an increase year-on-year. 22% ; Asset-liability ratio 66.72% , down from the beginning of the year 0.55 percentage points. The company generated positive operating net cash flow in the first half of the year. 67.4 100 million yuan, setting a new high recently. 5 The figure has reached a new high for the same period in previous years. According to industry analysts, as the country continues to reduce overcapacity and tighten environmental regulations, enterprises failing to meet standards are gradually exiting the market. This will further improve the supply-demand balance in the market by limiting production on the supply side, thereby driving up prices of alumina and aluminum.

　　According to the China Securities Journal, Western Mining achieved operating revenue in the first half of the year. 144 100 million yuan, down from the same period last year. 5% ; Achieve total profit 9.92 100 million yuan, an increase compared to the same period last year. 111% ; Achieve net profit 7.47 100 million yuan, an increase compared to the same period last year. 128% When evaluating its first-half performance, Western Mining stated that Huidong Daliang... 82.96% Equity acquisition work is underway this year. 1 Moon 4 The project was completed on a daily basis and has been included in the consolidated financial statements of the company this period, making a significant contribution to the company’s profits. Meanwhile, the average selling prices of the company’s key products—lead concentrate, zinc concentrate, and copper concentrate—increased compared to the same period last year. 12%、17% and 16%。

　　Mingtai Aluminum’s semiannual report shows that in the first half of the year, it achieved total operating revenue. 59.6 100 million yuan, an increase compared to the same period last year. 27.67% Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company 2.54 100 million yuan, an increase compared to the same period last year. 41.26% A representative from Mingtai Aluminum stated that the company’s performance growth was driven by its successful resilience against external adverse factors, demonstrating the company’s profitability and corporate vitality.

　　Analysts in the nonferrous metals industry believe that the third quarter will see a peak in restocking for several commodities, including cobalt and lithium, and are optimistic about the prices of certain smaller-scale commodities. Meanwhile, in the second half of the year, attention should be paid to the development trends of commodities such as alumina and nickel.

　　Industry prosperity may decline somewhat.

　　2018 Since the beginning of this year, China’s copper industry has been under dual pressure: internally, with newly commissioned smelting capacity and weak consumption momentum; and externally, amid complex and ever-changing international conditions marked by U.S.-China trade tensions. As a result, the overall performance of the copper industry has fallen short of expectations, and its operational trends have primarily exhibited the following five key characteristics: First, overall industry investment has declined, yet smelting investment remains relatively robust, and smelting capacity is set to expand further. Second, although production continues to grow, consumption has remained sluggish, and inventory destocking has been slow. Third, growth in copper ore supply has been limited, while imports of scrap copper have been restricted, widening the gap in raw material supply. Fourth, prices are under downward pressure, leading to a decline in industry profitability. Fifth, U.S.-China trade tensions have intensified, adding to macroeconomic uncertainties. It is expected that... 2018 In the third quarter of the year, China’s copper industry will continue to face challenges such as an imbalance between smelting and refining capacities, a widening gap in raw material supply, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. Although, in the short term, the composite prosperity index for the copper industry will remain at... “ Normal ” The economy is operating within a range, but the composite economic sentiment index may decline somewhat.

　　2018 First-half of the year, average daily production of primary aluminum 9 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 1.0% ; Daily average production of alumina 19 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 9.3% Although the domestic aluminum consumption sectors—such as construction and transportation—generally showed relatively subdued performance, aluminum consumption still maintained growth. At the same time, in response to the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, companies have proactively adjusted their export markets. Coupled with the significant depreciation of the RMB, aluminum exports have performed better than expected. From... 2018 Looking at the operating environment in the second half of the year, the aluminum smelting industry will continue to face numerous uncertainties. Domestically, these include: the special remediation plan for coal-fired captive power plants; the implementation status of air pollution control measures during autumn and winter in various regions; and the pace at which compliant alumina electrolysis projects are brought into operation. Internationally, these include: the risk of U.S.-China trade tensions; the outcome of the U.S. final sanctions on Russian aluminum; and the progress of the resumption of production at Hydro’s alumina refinery in Brazil.

　　The lead-zinc industry in 2018 The industry faces dual pressures from environmental regulations and raw material supply constraints this year, resulting in limited production growth. Within the industry, profit differentiation between mining and smelting operations has intensified, while consumer demand remains weak. Overall industry performance is characterized by overheated investment in secondary lead capacity, driving an increase in industry-wide investment; coupled with mounting environmental pressures and tight raw material supplies, production has declined year-on-year. Primary consumption within the industry has also fallen, and end-consumer demand remains sluggish. Lead and zinc prices have shown diverging trends, further exacerbating profit disparities among mining and smelting enterprises. Environmental requirements continue to tighten, highlighting the growing pressure on the lead and zinc industry to control metal pollution. It is expected that environmental protection will remain a key focus for the lead and zinc industry in the third quarter. On the production side, smelting companies will adjust their output schedules based on actual operating conditions. Meanwhile, as the lead consumption season approaches, there may be some boost to lead consumption at the end-user level. The future development trend of the secondary lead industry remains to be seen. In the short term, the lead and zinc industry is likely to remain in a state of... “ Normal ” Interval operation.

　　Expected 2018 In the second half of the year, nonferrous metal production is expected to remain stable. Nonferrous metal prices will continue to fluctuate at current levels, while production costs are rising. However, the growth rate of profits for nonferrous metal enterprises has noticeably slowed down. Moreover, fixed-asset investment in the industry and exports of nonferrous metal products are still unlikely to show significant improvement.