The 15th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum, hosted by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange, was held in Shanghai from the 29th to the 30th. Among the sub-forums, as many as three were directly related to non-ferrous metals. Industry experts from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, major non-ferrous metal enterprises, and well-known domestic and international institutions expressed that the domestic non-ferrous metals industry is expected to continue performing well this year, with copper, nickel, lead, and minor metal varieties remaining highly favored.

　　Shang Fushan, Vice President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, introduced at the Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that since the beginning of 2018, China's nonferrous metals industry has generally maintained a steady development trend. According to preliminary assessments, barring any major disruptions, the industry’s development in 2018 will continue to show simultaneous improvements in growth rate, structural adjustments, and profitability.

　　Wang Xiaohong, Managing Director and Head of Commodity Research at Dunhe Asset Management Co., Ltd., believes that the nonferrous metals industry should pay close attention to the interplay between domestic and international markets. Currently, looking at inventories both domestically and internationally, inventory levels for many commodities are relatively low. These low inventory levels present abundant trading opportunities. Over the past period, disruptions in inventory have triggered several distinct market rallies for certain commodities. Regarding demand for nonferrous metals, Wang Xiaohong remains optimistic. She noted that she is bullish on the demand potential driven by the leapfrog consumption growth in countries and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative. Additionally, the development of new-energy vehicles and artificial intelligence will boost prices for certain metals, while environmental protection efforts combined with supply-side reforms will create even more opportunities.

　　Alex Harrison, Editor-in-Chief of the UK’s Metal Bulletin Group, stated that the strong demand outlook for electric vehicles will be positive for copper consumption. According to Metal Bulletin’s forecast, the upward trend in copper, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, looks promising. Electric vehicle power batteries have a significant demand for high-grade nickel, and the fundamentals for nickel remain very strong. It is expected that the average LME nickel price in 2018 will be US$14,197 per tonne.

　　From the perspective of colored metal companies, Mao Yiwei, Vice President of Jiangxi Copper International Trading Co., Ltd., believes that copper prices in the second half of 2018 will continue to remain at high levels and experience wide-ranging fluctuations.

　　Li Zhicong, Deputy General Manager of China Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., stated that, according to statistics, despite the resumption of production at some projects in 2018—including new projects that have brought additional supply—the lead-zinc market is still expected to face a shortfall of 223,000 tons in 2018. As the world’s largest supplier of lead and zinc, the future growth rate of supply will likely fall short of previous market expectations. Moreover, the evolution of policies and the strength of their future implementation will have a profound impact on the global lead-zinc market.

　　On the evening of the 27th, Chinalco announced that it had signed a strategic cooperation agreement worth hundreds of billions of yuan with the People's Government of Yunnan Province, drawing significant market attention. Lu Dongliang, Deputy General Manager of Chinalco, stated that electrolytic aluminum has been designated as one of the industries subject to strict capacity controls, implying that in the next two to three years, the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum will hit a “ceiling,” and only structural optimization can help break through this limit. One key reason behind Chinalco’s recent landmark agreement with Yunnan Province is the region’s abundant renewable energy resources, such as hydropower. Lu Dongliang also noted that with the current push for electrification and intelligentization of transportation vehicles, lightweighting is fundamental, and aluminum’s potential for new applications is enormous.