In 2017, against the backdrop of a continuously recovering global economy and deepening adjustments to China’s industrial structure, the nonferrous metals industry earnestly promoted supply-side structural reform and strengthened industry self-discipline. Overall, the sector showed a trend of stable production, rising prices, and improving profitability.

　　2017: The situation in the nonferrous metals market improved significantly, and economic benefits rebounded sharply.

　　First, output declined slightly. According to preliminary statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of November 2017, the output of six types of concentrate reached 6.3123 million tons, down 1.21% year-on-year. From January to November, the output of copper concentrate was 1.5075 million tons, lead concentrate 1.4804 million tons, zinc concentrate 3.0568 million tons, nickel concentrate 86,500 tons, tin concentrate 85,600 tons, and antimony concentrate 95,500 tons. Among these, the output of copper concentrate, lead concentrate, nickel concentrate, and tin concentrate increased by 4.64%, 7.82%, 4.06%, and 1.2%, respectively, while the output of zinc concentrate and antimony concentrate decreased by 7.69% and 0.89%, respectively.

　　Looking at the distribution of output across different varieties, the copper concentrate containing copper had a total output of 1.5075 million tons. Among them, Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces each produced over 200,000 tons of copper-containing copper concentrate. Following closely behind were Xinjiang, Anhui, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia, each producing more than 100,000 tons. Together, these six provinces and regions accounted for 73.22% of the total output. The lead concentrate containing lead had a total output of 1.4804 million tons, with Hunan Province leading at 274,000 tons. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Jiangxi Province, Yunnan Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Henan Province each produced over 100,000 tons. These six provinces and regions together accounted for 67.2% of the total output. The zinc concentrate containing zinc had a total output of 3.0568 million tons, with Inner Mongolia producing 586,400 tons, accounting for 19.18% of the national total. Nine provinces produced more than 100,000 tons each, with their combined output reaching 2.6336 million tons, or 86.16% of the national total. The nickel concentrate containing nickel had a total output of 86,500 tons, distributed between Gansu and Xinjiang. Gansu Province produced 77,400 tons, accounting for 90% of the national total. The tin concentrate containing tin had a total output of 85,600 tons, distributed among six provinces and regions: Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, and Guangdong. The antimony concentrate containing antimony had a total output of 95,500 tons, distributed among six provinces and regions: Hunan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Tibet, Henan, and Shaanxi. Among these, Hunan Province produced 70,700 tons, accounting for 74.03% of the national total.

　　Second, the price center of gravity has shifted upward. Thanks to the global economic recovery and the advancement of China’s supply-side structural reforms, the nonferrous metals market has shown a marked improvement. In 2017, nonferrous metal prices generally exhibited a volatile yet upward trend. As of the end of December 2017, among the six nonferrous metals tracked by the LME, five saw year-on-year price increases while one experienced a decline. Specifically: the LME copper closing price was $7,251.5, up 31.46% from $5,516 in the same period last year; the LME aluminum closing price was $2,280, up 35.07% from $1,688 in the same period last year; the LME lead closing price was $2,498, up 24% from $2,014.5 in the same period last year; the LME zinc closing price was $3,316, up 29.13% from $2,568 in the same period last year; the LME nickel closing price was $12,645, up 25.76% from $10,055 in the same period last year; and the LME tin closing price was $19,995, down 4.67% from $20,975 in the same period last year.

　　Third, economic benefits have rebounded significantly. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2017, 8,295 large-scale nonferrous metal enterprises achieved main business revenues of 5,263.295 billion yuan, up 16.19% year-on-year; their profits reached 216.374 billion yuan, an increase of 41.72% over the previous year, with a sales profit margin of 4.11%. Among these, 1,277 nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation enterprises earned profits of 33.027 billion yuan, up 93.71% year-on-year, with a sales profit margin of 11.01%; 1,742 smelting enterprises generated profits of 83.446 billion yuan, up 66.71% year-on-year, with a sales profit margin of 3.51%; and 5,276 processing enterprises posted profits of 99.902 billion yuan, up 16.74% year-on-year, with a sales profit margin of 3.87%. The sales profit margin for the nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was considerably higher than that for both the smelting and processing industries.

　　Fourth, fixed-asset investment continued to decline. From January to November 2017, the nonferrous metals industry completed 6,661 fixed-asset investment projects with a total investment of 537.397 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year, and the decline has further widened. Among these, investment in mining and beneficiation reached 73.033 billion yuan, down 25.41% year-on-year; investment in smelting reached 141.178 billion yuan, down 14.25% year-on-year; and investment in processing reached 323.186 billion yuan, up 0.49% year-on-year, essentially flat compared to 2016. Looking at fixed-asset investment by specific sub-sector within the nonferrous metals mining and beneficiation industry, only investment in nickel and cobalt mining and beneficiation showed an increase compared to the same period last year, rising by 60.75% year-on-year. All other sub-sectors saw declines, and the magnitude of these declines was significant.

　　Fifth, imports of nonferrous metal mineral resources showed mixed trends. According to customs statistics, from January to November 2017, copper ore imports totaled 15.68 million tons, up 1.91% year-on-year; the growth rate, however, declined significantly compared to the same period in 2016. Aluminum ore and its concentrates amounted to 61.60 million tons, an increase of 29.97% year-on-year. Lead ore imports reached 1.2093 million tons, down 7.17% year-on-year. Zinc ore imports stood at 2.2218 million tons, up 22.95% year-on-year. Tin ore imports were 250,200 tons, down 41.57% year-on-year. Nickel ore imports totaled 32.4945 million tons, up 8.18% year-on-year. Antimony ore imports reached 61,300 tons, up 19.91% year-on-year. Tungsten ore imports were 3,700 tons, down 12.18% year-on-year. Molybdenum ore imports amounted to 25,400 tons, up 36.34% year-on-year.

　　Development Trends and Outlook: The external environment is gradually improving, which will boost consumption of related basic raw materials, and the structure of raw material supply will become more diversified.

　　From the perspective of the global economic environment, the world economy accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2016, and this momentum continued into 2017. According to the IMF’s October 2017 World Economic Outlook report, the recovery in global economic activity continues to gain strength. On the domestic front, the overall trend of China’s economic performance remains positive. In particular, the initial results of supply-side structural reforms are becoming evident, and structural adjustments are showing positive signs. Another development worth noting is the steady advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative, which will also boost economic growth in countries along its route. Overall, the external environment is gradually improving, which will in turn drive demand for related basic raw materials. At the same time, environmental protection pressures are becoming increasingly prominent. China’s sustainable development has now reached a new level of green development, and the focus of development is shifting from scale-based efficiency to quality-based and environmentally-friendly efficiency.

　　Since 2017, the Chinese government has introduced a series of laws, regulations, and standards, including the "Environmental Protection Tax Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Interim Provisions on the Administration of Pollution Discharge Permits," the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Green Industrial Development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt," the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Green Mines," the "Draft Law of the People's Republic of China on Soil Pollution Prevention and Control," the "Reform Plan for the System of Compensation for Ecological and Environmental Damage," and the "Work Plan for Clearing Mining Rights within Nature Reserves." From the current situation, the impact of these environmental protection policies on the entire industry has not yet fully materialized; however, in the long run, they will have a sustained influence on the development of the industry. In particular, the implementation of the Environmental Protection Tax Law this year and the forthcoming standards for green mine construction will further regulate and guide mining enterprises toward green development.

　　Another emerging trend in the nonferrous metals industry: In recent years, nonferrous metals enterprises have achieved remarkable results in going global and participating in international cooperation. According to preliminary estimates by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the total capacity of copper mining projects in which Chinese enterprises hold equity stakes—whether through overseas investment or cooperative ventures—has now exceeded 1.8 million tons, nearly matching the domestic copper mine production capacity. In 2017, the copper output from overseas copper mines already approached that of domestic copper mines. China’s raw material supply structure is moving toward greater diversification. In addition to the progress made in overseas cooperation, copper production in domestic regions such as Tibet, Yunnan, and Xinjiang is also expected to further increase.

　　In summary, as domestic consumption of copper and other non-ferrous metals slows down and domestic recycled supply increases, China’s reliance on foreign mineral resources for copper will gradually ease.