Since the reform and opening-up policy was introduced, China’s copper industry has maintained a relatively rapid pace of development. The industrial chain has continued to improve, the industrial structure has been steadily optimized, the level of technological equipment has kept rising, the strength of copper enterprises has grown stronger, and the industry’s international influence has steadily expanded. At the same time, structural contradictions in the development of China’s copper industry have become increasingly prominent. Structural issues such as shortages of mineral resources and smelting capacity significantly exceeding the capacity to secure mine resources remain unresolved, thereby hindering the sustained and healthy development of China’s copper industry.

　　Become the world’s largest producer and consumer of refined copper. 2002 In that year, China's refined copper consumption surpassed that of the United States, making it the world’s largest consumer of refined copper. 2006 This year, China's refined copper production exceeded... 300 Ten thousand tons—surpassing Chile and becoming the world’s No. 1 producer of refined copper. 2016 This year, China's refined copper production reached... 845.4 10,000 tons, an increase over the previous year. 6.1% , average annual growth since the beginning of the new century 12.0% ， “ The 12th Five-Year Plan ” Average annual growth during the period 11.9% ; refined copper consumption reaches 1050 10,000 tons, an increase over the previous year. 6.1% , average annual growth since the beginning of the new century 11.2% ， “ The 12th Five-Year Plan ” Average annual growth during the period 7.7% 。

　　2016 Year, China's total copper consumption 1189.0 10,000 tons, an increase over the previous year. 6.6% ; Per capita annual consumption of all-copper 8.6 Kilograms, an increase compared to the previous year. 6.0% 。

　　Since the beginning of the new century, China’s ability to secure copper resources has improved, yet its dependence on imports remains above [a certain level]. 70% China’s net imports of copper resources include the metal content of copper concentrates, crude copper and refined copper, recycled copper, and the copper metal content of imported copper products. 2016 This year, the net import volume of various copper products in our country, converted into copper metal content, was approximately... 989 Ten thousand tons. 2016 Annual domestic copper concentrate metal content 185 Ten thousand tons, approximately domestic recycled copper. 180 10,000 tons—combined, the country’s copper resources total: 365 Ten thousand tons. 2016 This year, the amount of copper metal available for use in our country is: 1354 10,000 tons, of which domestic copper resources account for the supply. 26.9% , relatively 2015 Year-on-year decline 0.5 percentage points; imported copper resources account for the supply volume 73.1% , relatively 2015 Annual increase 0.5 percentage point.

　　The capacity to secure copper mineral resources has also improved. 2016 In that year, the proportion of copper concentrate metal content imported by our country to the domestic supply of copper concentrate was 72.1% However, the proportion of copper concentrate metal content obtained by Chinese enterprises from overseas investments relative to China’s domestic copper concentrate supply is... 7.5% The proportion of metal content in domestically produced copper concentrate to the total domestic supply is: 27.9% If the metal content of copper concentrates obtained from overseas investments by Chinese enterprises is included, the country’s assurance of copper mineral resources will also be enhanced.

　　Development and Operational Status of the Copper Industry

　　The copper industry as a whole is showing a trend of stable production, fluctuating yet rising prices, and continuously improving profitability. However, structural challenges such as resource shortages, insufficient innovation, and difficulties in financing remain unresolved at their root, and the foundation for sustained industrial development still needs further consolidation. 2017 Before the new year 10 months, China's refined copper production 737.1 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 6.3% ; Metal content of copper concentrate 141.6 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 4.5% ; Copper production (including duplicate statistics among enterprises) 1635.5 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 3.3% . Previous 10 months, the average spot price of copper in the domestic market was 48388 Yuan / Ton, up year-on-year 32.1% 。 1–10 In the month, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products amounted to... 245.1 hundred million dollars , Year-on-year growth 14.9% ; The import volume is 376 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 7.8% Among them, 10 Monthly import volume 33 10,000 tons, down from the previous month. 23.3% 。 1–10 In the month, China's imports of copper concentrate amounted to... 203.3 hundred million U.S. dollars, up year-on-year 23.0% ; The physical volume of copper concentrate imports is 1393 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 2.9% Among them, 10 Monthly import volume 137 10,000 tons, down from the previous month. 6.8% 。 1–9 Month, 1742 Large-scale copper enterprises achieved profits. 382.1 100 million yuan, up year-on-year 36.8% , accounting for the profits realized by nonferrous metal enterprises above a designated size. 22.1% Among them, copper mining and processing enterprises achieved profits. 53.1 100 million yuan, growth 139.6% ; Copper smelting enterprises achieve profits 113.1 100 million yuan, growth 37.6% ; Copper processing enterprises achieve profits. 215.9 100 million yuan, growth 23.4% 。

　　The monthly business sentiment index for China Nonferrous Metals Industry is at “ Normal ” Interval operation. Released by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. 2017 Year 10 The monthly business sentiment index for the copper industry in the middle of the month is: 33.40 down from the previous month 0.42 One point, close 5 For the first time in months, there was a slight decline, but it still remains... “ Normal ” Interval operation.

　　2017 Year 10 Month, in the monthly business sentiment index of the copper industry composed of constituent colors 9 Among the indicators, LME The copper settlement price is located at “ Slightly hot ” Interval; the import volume index, total investment, housing sales area, production index, main business revenue, and total profit are located at “ Normal ” Interval; M2 , the power cable is located at “ Slightly cold ” Interval.

　　Reference Factors Influencing Copper Consumption in Developed Countries

　　The structure of copper consumption and the status of copper recycling in the United States offer valuable lessons for other countries. The United States is... 20 As the world’s largest consumer and recycler of copper, the United States primarily concentrates its end-use consumption of copper in the housing construction industry, the manufacturing of electrical and electronic equipment, the industrial machinery and equipment sector, the transportation equipment industry, and the consumer goods and general products sector. 2000 In recent years, the United States has reached an inflection point in both its total copper consumption and per capita consumption, yet it remains one of the world’s major copper-consuming countries. 2000 Annual per capita copper consumption in the United States reached 15.1 kilogram, 2006 Although the year has fallen back to 12 kilograms, but still significantly higher than 2015 This year, per capita consumption in our country is less than... 8 kilogram; 2006 The proportion of scrap copper directly used in total U.S. copper consumption reached... 30.7% ，1986 year to 2006 The average annual direct use of scrap copper in the United States exceeds... 100 Around 10,000 tons, with an average annual share of 28.2% It is the country that directly uses the largest amount of scrap copper in the world. Vigorously developing a circular economy, building a resource-conserving society, and improving the efficiency of copper resource utilization will be effective ways to address China’s constraints on copper resources.

　　The level of growth in copper consumption is the same as... GDP Growth is closely related. 1978 year to 2015 In that year, the growth rate of copper consumption in our country was consistent with the growth rate of GDP ( GDP The linear correlation coefficient of ) is in 0.9 Left and right. 1986 year to 2006 In that year, the trend in U.S. copper consumption mirrored that of the country itself. GDP The correlation coefficient is also in 0.9 Around the turn of the century. In the first decade of the new millennium, our country... GDP Average annual growth 10.5% By the way, during this period, China's total copper consumption has grown at an average annual rate. 9.4% 。

　　China’s copper demand and per capita copper consumption continue to show a growing trend.

　　As an essential foundational raw material for the national economy, copper continues to see growing applications in sectors such as power, information technology, transportation, machinery, and construction, driven by economic development and rising living standards. In the future... 5–10 This year, China’s urbanization is still in a phase of rapid development, and demand for copper from various sectors of the national economy will continue to rise.

　　Our forecast for the future 5–10 In the coming year, China’s copper demand may reach its peak and then enter a plateau period. Preliminary assessment: 2020 Year, 2025 Year and 2030 The total copper demand in our country for the year was as follows: 1400 Ten thousand tons, 1450 Ten thousand tons and 1450 Ten thousand tons. Among them, the demand for refined copper reached 1300 Ten thousand tons, 1300 Ten thousand tons and 1250 Ten thousand tons. China's demand for refined copper may be... “ 14th Five-Year Plan ” During this period, the trend will reach a plateau and then show an inflection point. Looking ahead... 5–10 This year, China’s per capita copper consumption continues to show a growth trend, but it has reached... 10 kilogram / person · It may enter a plateau phase in about a year. The recommended forecast value for per capita copper consumption is: 2020 Reach the year 10.07 About a kilogram, 2025 Reach the year 10.21 Around one kilogram—after which a turning point might occur. 2020 year to 2030 Per capita copper consumption is likely to remain broadly stable overall. 10 About a kilogram.

　　Countermeasures

　　Strengthen the foundation of the mining industry and enhance resource security capabilities. To improve resource security capabilities, first we must— “ Rooted in the domestic market, strengthen public welfare, rely on technology, and enhance management. ” Based on the fundamental guiding principles for the development of the nonferrous metals mining industry, the copper industry will closely align itself with the nation’s mineral exploration initiatives. By implementing projects aimed at promoting mining development, with a particular focus on domestically scarce copper resources, we will accelerate the construction of overseas resource bases and enhance the industry’s capacity to secure copper resources. Second, through the implementation of overseas resource development projects, and leveraging the capabilities of leading enterprises with international operational expertise, we will establish development mechanisms that share benefits with the host countries. In resource-rich regions such as neighboring countries, Central Africa, and Latin America, we will establish a number of overseas copper resource bases, thereby strengthening Chinese enterprises’ control over global resources. Third, we must actively develop urban mineral resources. Currently, China’s stockpile of nonferrous metal waste is entering a phase of sustained growth. By establishing a domestic recycling system for secondary metals, domestic waste will become the most important source of raw materials for the recycled copper industry.

　　The shift from traditional copper materials to high-end copper materials will secure a competitive edge for the future. In expanding the applications of copper materials, key focus areas include the development and implementation of high-strength, high-conductivity materials, copper alloys for high-speed trains, copper materials for electric vehicles, copper-based products for environmental protection, high-thermal-conductivity copper alloys, and copper materials for electrical connections. Examples include high-speed train contact wires, lead frames for integrated circuits, photovoltaic copper strips, electrical connection strips, rolled copper foils, internally threaded tubes, externally threaded tubes, high-fin tubes, seawater desalination heating tubes, silicon-phosphorus brass rods for eco-friendly bathroom fixtures, specialized ultra-fine enameled wires, copper-clad aluminum wires, copper-clad aluminum tubes, aluminum-clad copper tubes, and copper-aluminum composite busbars. By closely aligning with market demands and advances in science and technology, traditional copper materials must gradually transition toward modern copper alloys, moving in the direction of higher precision, superior performance, environmental friendliness, and energy efficiency. We should promote the industry’s move toward high-end development, establishing several well-planned, uniquely characterized, and industrially concentrated deep-processing production bases that can meet the needs of strategic emerging industries as well as major national projects, thereby securing a leading position in future competition.

　　Further strengthen the supporting role of the copper futures market in enhancing the quality and efficiency of enterprises. As China’s economic standing continues to rise, the pricing power of domestic trading products—such as copper and other nonferrous metal futures—is steadily increasing. The level of openness of China’s domestic futures markets is continuously improving; delivery rules are becoming increasingly aligned with international standards; and trading volumes are gradually expanding. As a result, the pricing power of China’s copper futures market is gradually breaking the existing monopoly held by European and American markets, thus giving rise to a new international pricing system characterized by multi-party competition. Currently, the opening price of Shanghai’s nonferrous metal futures has become the benchmark for pricing in the national spot market. Nonferrous metal enterprises are increasingly relying on—and referring to—domestic, especially Shanghai-based, nonferrous metal quotations when drafting purchase and sales contracts, setting prices, and managing inventories. As China consolidates its position as a major global producer and consumer of copper, domestic futures exchanges and copper-producing and trading companies should work together to further enhance the futures market’s role in boosting enterprise quality and efficiency.

　　Protect the ecological environment and promote green development of industries. In the development of the copper industry, we must strike a proper balance between economic benefits and environmental benefits, and clearly and prominently advocate the concept of green development. We should impose strict entry requirements, optimize industrial layouts, and prohibit the construction, renovation, or expansion of projects that would increase heavy-metal pollutant emissions in areas requiring special protection—such as nature reserves, drinking-water source protection zones, large and medium-sized cities and their immediate suburbs, and densely populated residential areas—where environmental conditions are particularly stringent. We must also strictly control copper-smelting capacity in regions lacking adequate resource, energy, and environmental carrying capacity. Following the model of circular economy development, we should support the establishment of several new industrial demonstration bases for nonferrous metals that boast strong resource foundations, complete industrial chains, distinctive features, efficient resource utilization, and environmental friendliness. We should vigorously promote advanced production processes that are safe and efficient, consume less energy and resources, meet environmental standards, and achieve high-level comprehensive resource utilization, effectively preventing heavy-metal pollution at its source. We should implement mandatory cleaner-production audits in accordance with the law. We should strengthen the construction of facilities for the treatment of heavy-metal pollution and encourage enterprises to carry out deep-level treatment beyond compliance with emission standards.

　　Promote the deep integration of industrialization and informatization, and facilitate the transformation of China from a major raw-materials producer into a global materials powerhouse. Today, information technologies such as the Internet, cloud computing, big data, and e-commerce are rapidly advancing, reshaping—or already reshaping—the development landscape of many traditional industries and profoundly impacting all aspects of the national economy, society, and people’s daily lives. In the copper industry, effectively promoting the integration of industrialization and informatization is a crucial support for China’s copper industry to shift from being large in scale to being strong in capability. First, by advancing the deep integration of industrialization and informatization, we can enhance the competitiveness and influence of copper enterprises. Second, by promoting this integration, we can boost the economic and social benefits of the industry. Third, by furthering the deep integration of industrialization and informatization, we can strengthen our capacity for scientific and technological innovation and accelerate China’s transition from a major raw-materials producer in the copper industry to a global leader in new materials.

　　Further conduct research on forecasting trends in the consumption of nonferrous metals such as copper, and enhance the accuracy of prediction and early-warning capabilities. As China’s national economy shifts from sustained high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, undergoes structural transformation and upgrading, and as both domestic and international economic environments evolve and technological advancements continue to accelerate, new application areas for copper and other nonferrous metals will emerge, continually expanding the scope of consumption. At the same time, existing application fields may be replaced by newer ones, leading to changes in both the overall trend and structural composition of copper demand in domestic and international markets. Therefore, studies on China’s copper demand, including trends in per capita copper consumption, and forecasts of peak copper demand and the timing of that peak, are not static. Instead, these studies must be continuously updated and refined in response to emerging developments. Based on this ongoing research, we can offer targeted recommendations for optimizing China’s copper consumption supply structure, preventing supply shortages and overcapacity, and ensuring the sustained and healthy development of the copper industry. Such efforts are also of great significance for perfecting the copper futures market. In light of new trends in copper consumption, we should further refine and improve the market structure of copper futures contracts, aligning with evolving market trends and demands. This includes enhancing the rules and systems governing copper futures trading and delivery, as well as optimizing warehousing arrangements, thereby broadening and deepening the scope of the copper futures market and better serving the real economy. At the same time, we must further promote the application of big data within the industry, refine the forecasting and early-warning system for the nonferrous metals sector, and continuously elevate the industry’s forecasting and early-warning capabilities and standards. This will provide crucial reference for restructuring and transforming the nonferrous metals industry, boosting its efficiency, and supporting the government’s macroeconomic regulation and enterprises’ scientific decision-making.