SWOT Analysis: Where Is the Gold Price Heading?
Release time:
2016-12-06
Source:
China Gold Net, November 23, 2016
This week, the best-performing precious metal was palladium, which gained... 7.14% the gains. Bloomberg highlighted that China's auto production increased in October and September, respectively. 18% and 34% While other gold investors were rushing to sell, billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson remained steadfast in his position in the world’s largest... ETF Shares of gold funds, according to Bloomberg. Even though gold prices have posted their first quarterly loss this year, as of... 9 At the end of the month, Paulson & Co. still maintained its... 6 The number of shares held by the moon remains unchanged.
Good news
According to Bloomberg’s calculations, the number of newly discovered primary gold deposits has already risen from 1987 of the year 37 a decrease to 2014 of the year 3 One, and then again 10 Year to 2025 This year, gold mine supply could decline by about one-third, writes Marco Obilnara. Mark Bristow, CEO of Randgold Resources, says that gold production may peak within the next three years, as mines are unable to replenish their reserves. The same is true for the silver market, Reuters reports. 2016 This year will mark the fourth consecutive year of a physical supply gap in the market. In fact, from January to September this year, Russia’s silver production declined year-on-year. 9.4% Gold production has declined. 1.4% 。
BonTerra This week, the resource company announced that it has significantly extended the Gladito gold vein, with a length exceeding... 250 Meters, including “multi-layer intersections with high-grade ore-bearing widths.” ba-16-39 The gold-bearing ore layers formed by drilling include an eastern one that exceeds... 5.5 A meter-wide grade 70 Ker / A ton of ore veins, with a depth of 600 Less than one meter.
Negative news
This week, the worst-performing precious metal was silver, which declined. 4.47% Bloomberg pointed out that among all the silver they are tracking... ETF The amount of silver held in the product has decreased. 290 Ten ounces is 10 The first monthly decline in months.
By Thursday, ETF The total holdings of gold funds have been continuously... 6 The sky is falling, Bloomberg reports—this is the longest stretch in a year. The prospect of the U.S. raising interest rates has diminished gold’s appeal as a store of value, even for billionaire investors George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller. Naeem Aslam of “London Market Thinking” believes investors are bailing out and shifting to riskier trades. He argues that the clear hot trade right now is going long on the U.S. dollar index, because... 12 The probability of a rate hike this month is... 91% However, it’s hard to say what constitutes a “clear-cut outcome,” since many analysts once considered Clinton’s victory to be “clear-cut” as well.
Nigam Arora, a writer for “Market Watch,” believes that the real reason behind the collapse in gold prices lies in India, not in Trump. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has instructed the cancellation of... 500 and 1000 Rupiah banknotes; and these banknotes represent the balance of cash in circulation. 20% And holding cash value 80% “In the past” 50 “The most common method used throughout the year to convert black money into white money is to pay in cash—large-denomination banknotes—to purchase gold,” wrote Arora. “Now that the large-denomination banknotes previously used to buy gold have lost their value, demand for physical gold will decline.” Indian market observers say that demand for gold has hit rock bottom—even though the country’s wedding season has already begun, according to Business Standard magazine.
Opportunity
At 11 Moon 14 In today's report, RBC The capital markets indicate that now is the time to reallocate portfolios following Donald Trump’s election victory. The report explores the president’s impact on the markets, how to best allocate portfolios, and risks associated with Trump. RBC It clearly indicates that, with the inauguration of President Trump, inflation and interest rates are expected to rise. The report points out that, within the materials sector, gold stocks should be the biggest beneficiaries. In another report presented by the group at its 15th Annual Senior Gold Conference, RBC It is noted that prudent capital allocation remains the key to entry. 2017 A key theme for the year, despite a constructive outlook for gold. The company remains focused on maximizing free cash flow from its assets, with dividends serving as a primary focus—and these dividends should translate into higher stock prices. As shown in the chart below, gold stocks are currently trading at valuations that are even lower relative to today’s gold price.

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates believes the global economy is set to undergo a “major reversal,” according to a report by HSBC. This reversal will involve a decline in trends such as globalization and free trade, as well as accelerated U.S. growth and proactive government spending. Although gold was not explicitly mentioned, the report goes on to say that the main point of his statement is unlikely to be driving up gold prices. Dalio also discussed bonds, noting that there is a clear possibility that both bond yields and inflation have already reached new highs. 30 At the year's low point, there's nowhere left to go but up.
In response to Stanley Druckenmiller’s bearish comments on gold, Joseph Partners noted in its latest trading update that even a slight change in interest rates could have significant implications for investors. “If...” 30 The interest rate on the term bond has increased from its recent level. 1% , investors will bear 18% “the loss,” the group wrote. They left this question to readers, particularly in emerging markets: Which assets will thrive when currencies weaken and inflation rises? They believe that a consistent answer is gold and silver.
Threat
Concerns about a possible ban on gold imports have prompted some Indian gold traders to place short-term, large-volume orders for gold. Members of the Indian Gold and Jewellery Association have already been circulating news that the government might impose such a ban at the end of the current fiscal year. Following last week’s demonetization of high-denomination banknotes, uncertainty in the Indian gold market has intensified, heightening the threat of an import ban and potentially causing significant fluctuations in gold prices.
On Monday, Commerzbank stated, “Gold still faces considerable resistance.” The bank pointed out that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and a decline in holdings by gold funds are all contributing to downward pressure on prices, as speculative investors are pulling out of gold.
Thomson Reuters GFMS Analysts pointed out this week that physical silver demand has hit a four-year low this year. Purchases of jewelry, silver coins, and silver bars have all declined. In a report, John Weber noted, “Lower discretionary spending, increased savings, slower economic growth, and higher silver prices have all contributed to the overall decline.” 2015 This year, sales of silver coins and silver bars reached a record high. 2.924 billion ounces, while 2016 The year has already fallen to 2.22 One hundred million ounces.