2016 In the first half of the year, global economic growth fell short of expectations, and demand for traditional minerals reached a temporary “ceiling.” As a result, the fundamental factors supporting higher prices for bulk mineral commodities and robust performance in mining financial markets have weakened, leading to a waning momentum for the recovery of the mining sector. Meanwhile, China’s economic transformation is deepening, with the economy shifting gears across the board. Consequently, demand for major mineral products and production scales have collectively declined, and enthusiasm for mining continues to cool down. To resolve the new crisis facing the mining industry, embrace a new exploration cycle, win the tough battle against overcapacity, and promote the development of the mining sector under the “new normal,” we need fresh impetus and innovative approaches.
　　 I. Global economic growth has fallen below expectations, and the momentum supporting the recovery of the mining industry is gradually waning.
　　 (1) Global economic growth remains persistently weak, and demand for traditional minerals has reached a temporary “ceiling.” First, ... Affected by factors such as the U.S. tightening its monetary policy and the increasing debt burden in emerging economies, major institutions are generally lowering their forecasts for global economic growth this year. Among them, the World Bank has revised down its initial forecast for global economic growth from... 2.9% Lowered to 2.4% ， IMF The year-start forecast for global economic growth from 3.4% Lowered to 3.2% 。 Second is Units from developed countries such as the United States and Europe GDP Resource utilization intensity has entered a low-level plateau, and consumption of traditional minerals such as coal, crude steel, and copper has become decoupled from economic development, with overall demand remaining relatively stable. China has been the primary contributor to this “golden decade” in the mining sector, with per-unit consumption of traditional minerals... GDP Resource utilization intensity has already reached or is about to enter a peak plateau phase, and its contribution to driving resource demand is essentially complete. Third is Other emerging economies and developing countries, such as Brazil, India, and South Africa, are facing significant challenges—including difficult structural adjustments and mounting debt burdens—leading to continued downward pressure on their economies and directly constraining the expansion of traditional mineral consumption. Looking at the current global economic situation and the economic development trends of major countries, the total global demand for traditional minerals such as coal, crude steel, and copper has essentially reached its peak. 38~39 100 million tons of oil equivalent, 16~17 hundred million tons, 2200~2300 A ceiling level of 10,000 tons 。
　　 (2) Prices of bulk mineral commodities and the mining finance market have shown some improvement, but the underlying fundamentals remain weak. First, ... Prices of bulk mineral products have rebounded overall. 2016 Year 6 Moon 27 Day, Richard RB Spot price of thermal coal 56.9 U.S. dollar / ton, compared to the beginning of the year ( 1 Moon 4 Day, the same applies below) rebounding 15.2% ; Brent crude oil spot price 45.9 U.S. dollar / The barrel has rebounded from the beginning of the year. 25.6% ; Iron ore (Qian'an) 66% Iron concentrate powder price (on a dry basis, including tax) 490 Yuan / Ton, rebounding from the beginning of the year 21.0% ; zinc, tin, aluminum, nickel, copper LME The spot settlement prices are as follows: 2001 U.S. dollar / ton, 17005 U.S. dollar / ton, 1592 U.S. dollar / ton, 8960 U.S. dollar / ton, 4692 U.S. dollar / tons, rebounding from the beginning of the year, respectively. 28.8% 、 16.8% 、 8.6% 、 5.2% 、 1.0% 。 Second is The mining securities market has shown some signs of recovery. In the first half of the year, the Toronto Stock Exchange... 110 The global mining index, represented by publicly listed mining companies, is showing a volatile upward trend. 6 Moon 29 The index for the day is 60.73 , up from the beginning of the year 36.3% 。 Third is The prices of bulk mineral commodities continue to rebound, yet lack fundamental support. In the first half of the year, the rebound in bulk raw material prices was primarily driven by factors such as cyclical restocking demand, the decline of the U.S. dollar index from its high levels prompting asset reallocation, and the inherent need for a rebound and recovery following the sharp drop in commodity prices earlier. Looking ahead in the long term, economic structural adjustments will make it impossible for the growth rate of demand for mineral products to remain as robust as in the past. Moreover, efforts to reduce overcapacity and supply-side reforms will continue to put downward pressure on bulk mineral commodity prices.
　　 (3) The operating performance of mining companies continues to decline, and the mining market remains sluggish. First, ... The decline in profits has prompted mining companies to “slim down and weather the cold.” Although prices of major mineral products rebounded and rose overall in the first half of the year, they generally remained below the levels of the same period last year, leading to a sharp drop in mining sector profits and prompting large multinational mining firms to continue divesting assets. For example, Anglo American Group has put Morumbi up for sale... Moranbah ) and Grosvenor ( Grosvenor ) Coal mines serve as a key component of the debt reduction plan; Glencore announced an increase. 2016 Annual asset disposal volume to 40-50 hundreds of millions of dollars, and has already reached an agreement on a value of 16 An intent to sell assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars has been reached. Second is Mining investments have shrunk, and major mining companies have cut their production plans. Affected by business performance, the upstream investments of the five major international oil companies declined on average in the first quarter. 25.9% Rio Tinto 2016 Annual investment cuts to 50 hundreds of millions of dollars. As investments shrink, major mining companies have been continuously announcing production-cutting plans—for example, BHP announced cuts in the first quarter. 2016 Fiscal year iron ore production 1000 Ten thousand tons, causing the projected production for this fiscal year to be reduced to... 2.6 hundred million tons; Vale will 2016 Annual iron ore production is expected to be reduced by approximately... 10% To 3.4–3.5 hundreds of millions of tons. As the world’s largest producer of copper from mines, Chile... 1-5 Monthly copper production is approximately 230 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 5.3% 。 Third is Inventories of major nonferrous metals are showing a downward trend. 2016 Year 6 Moon 28 Day, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel LME The total inventory of futures is as follows: 19.3 Ten thousand tons, 240.0 Ten thousand tons, 42.9 Ten thousand tons, 18.5 Ten thousand tons, 0.6 Ten thousand tons and 38.1 10,000 tons, a decrease compared to the beginning of the year. 18.2% 、 16.9% 、 7.4% 、 3.3% 、 0.9% and 13.7% Fourth, the exploration market remains sluggish. Although the exploration activity index continues to show a slight rebound, significant drilling results in May have largely returned to levels seen at the beginning of the year. 113 the level of the item, and the number of newly announced resources has also increased from April's 8 The item dropped to May's level. 5 Item, resource value correspondingly drops to 2.88 hundred million dollars.
　　 (4) The world may be entering a new cycle of mineral exploration. First, The patterns of change in international gold prices and global mineral exploration investment, along with this year’s gold price trends, suggest that a new exploration cycle is on the horizon. Global mineral exploration is an industry characterized by cyclical fluctuations—particularly commercial mineral exploration, whose ups and downs closely mirror the trend of gold prices. 1975 Year -2015 The trends in international gold prices and global investment data in solid mineral exploration over the years show that the correlation between these two variables not only exhibits a multi-period “synchronous” pattern but also indicates that exploration investment lags behind changes in the gold price index by about one year. For example, 1997 Year -2001 This year, international gold prices have continued to decline, with the lowest price being... 2001 Year (London Exchange data, 2001 Annual spot average price 271.08 U.S. dollar / ounce), yet the lowest global investment in solid mineral exploration corresponds to 2002 Year (data from the Canadian Mineral Economics Group, 2002 Global investment in solid mineral exploration is approximately... 20 hundred million U.S. dollars); correspondingly, the highest international gold price is 2011 Year (London Exchange data, 2011 Annual spot average price 1571.68 U.S. dollar / ounce), while the country with the highest global investment in solid mineral exploration is 2012 Year (data from the Canadian Mineral Economics Group, 2012 Global investment in solid mineral exploration is approximately... 215 (hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars). The data indicate that there is indeed a lag of about one year between the peaks in global investment in solid mineral exploration and the peaks in gold prices.
　　2012 After reaching its peak in global exploration investment in solid minerals, global exploration spending has once again continued to decline along with the fall in gold prices. International gold prices have... 2015 Year 12 After the lunar dip, 2016 Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have continued to fluctuate and rise. 7 Moon 15 Spot gold price on the London Exchange 1327 U.S. dollar / Ounces, compared to the beginning of the year, have seen an increase approaching... 25% Based on this “small upward trend” in gold prices and historical patterns, the global exploration market has already shown signs of recovery, and now is the time to embrace a new exploration cycle. Second, the rebound in overseas exploration markets also signals that a new exploration cycle is imminent. As international gold prices recover, 2016 In the first half of the year, the overseas exploration market showed signs of a positive recovery, with an increase in the number of exploration blocks registered in countries such as Australia and Canada. At the same time, stock prices of junior exploration companies rose sharply, particularly for precious metals like gold and silver, among which... Silvercorp 、 Silver Wheaton 、 Minco Silver 、 First Majestic Silver Four silver exploration companies saw their stock prices rise by an average of [amount] in the first half of the year. 269% In addition, mergers and acquisitions among mining companies have been on the rise. Each time the mining industry enters a downturn, the mining market undergoes a significant adjustment, and mining companies take advantage of the sluggish market conditions to engage in M&A activities. For example: 5 At the beginning of the month, the U.S. mining giant Freeport-McMoRan Announced agreement to acquire Congo's largest copper-cobalt mine. Tenke Fungurume All equity interests were sold to Luoyang LuanChuan Molybdenum Industry Group Co., Ltd. at a transaction price of... 26.5 hundred million dollars.
　　 Based on historical patterns in international gold prices and global mineral exploration investment trends, as well as the lag period associated with exploration investments, and taking into account the numerous recent signs of recovery in the exploration market, we forecast that... 2017 The year could see the onset of a new global exploration cycle. 。
　 　II. China’s economic transformation is deepening, and the mining industry may be facing a new crisis.

(1) China’s economic growth has undergone a comprehensive shift in gear, and demand for major mineral products has collectively declined. First, Structural reforms have caused all three “locomotives” driving China’s economic growth to slow down comprehensively. China has now entered the mid-to-late stage of industrialization, and the pressures of shifting economic growth rates are intertwined with the pains of structural adjustment, determining that for a long period ahead, China’s economy will face considerable downward pressure. 2016 Year 1-5 In the month, nationwide fixed-asset investment increased year-on-year. 9.6% , the growth rate sets a new record. 16 A new low since the year. Meanwhile, the international competitiveness of “Made in China” continues to decline, and the scale of exports is trending downward. 1-5 Monthly national exports 5.3 Trillion yuan, down year-on-year. 1.8% ; Additionally, our country 2/3 All of the above-mentioned urban residents have mortgage loans, and domestic demand is also weak. Second is After years of rapid growth, demand for bulk mineral products has begun to decline collectively. 1973 The oil crisis of that year dealt a blow to the global economy, as demand for mineral products in developed countries such as the United States and Europe experienced a sharp, collective decline. In particular, the United States—after the crisis— 10 In recent years, consumption of major minerals such as primary energy, steel, copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc has all shown a pattern of stagnant growth. Currently, China’s era of rapid infrastructure development has largely come to an end, and the pull effect of the economy’s “three driving forces” on resource demand is weakening, leading to... 2015 This year, China saw an unprecedented collective decline in the consumption of major mineral resources. Among them, 2015 Annual primary energy consumption is approximately 28.7 hundred million tons of oil equivalent, compared to 2014 Decreased annually 3.4% ; Steel consumption in 2013 Reaches its peak annually, 2014 Year and 2015 The year-on-year decline is close to that of South Korea. 2014 Total annual crude steel consumption ( 5783 10,000 tons), with the magnitude of the decline far exceeding expectations; 2015 In the year, consumption of refined copper, refined lead, and refined zinc was approximately: 1080 Ten thousand tons, 380 Ten thousand tons, 630 Ten thousand tons, compared to 2014 Decreased year by year 4.3% 、 9.0% 、 1.2% 。
　　 (2) The scale of traditional mineral production may be reaching its peak, while import trade continues to diverge. First, The supply-side reform in the mining industry has led to a collective decline in the scale of traditional mineral production. 2015 Year, the national output of raw coal, crude steel, and copper concentrate (metal) were respectively: 37.5 hundred million tons, 8.0 hundred million tons, 166.7 10,000 tons, a decrease compared to the previous year. 3.3% 、 2.3% 、 6.6% ； 1-5 Month, corresponding production volumes are as follows: 13.4 hundred million tons, 3.3 hundred million tons, 71.1 10,000 tons, down year-on-year by 8.4% 、 1.4% 、 3.9% Lead and zinc concentrates (metals) 2015 Annual production volumes are: 233.5 Ten thousand tons, 474.9 10,000 tons, a decrease compared to the previous year. 13.9% 、 10.5% ； 1-4 Month, corresponding production volumes are as follows: 59.1 Ten thousand tons, 128.6 10,000 tons, a decrease compared to the previous year. 8.1% 、 5.8% 。 Second is In modern mineral resources, crude oil production is declining, while natural gas production is steadily increasing. 1-5 Month, national crude oil production 8501 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 3.7% ; Conventional natural gas production 590 hundred million cubic meters, up year-on-year 5.2% Coalbed methane production 31.1 hundred million cubic meters, up year-on-year 12.3% 。 Third is The import trade of mineral products shows a clear divergence. 1-5 In the month, the physical import volumes of coal, crude oil, iron ore, copper concentrate, bauxite, and tin concentrate nationwide were as follows: 0.64 hundred million tons, 1.56 hundred million tons, 4.12 hundred million tons, 669.6 Ten thousand tons, 2188.8 Ten thousand tons, 21.6 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year by. 2.8% 、 16.5% 、 9.0% 、 33.4% 、 17.9% 、 90.8% ; Correspondingly, the physical import volumes of natural gas, nickel concentrate, lead concentrate, and zinc concentrate were as follows: 315.7 hundred million cubic meters, 761.4 Ten thousand tons, 53.3 Ten thousand tons, 91.0 10,000 tons, down year-on-year by 21.4% 、 25.2% 、 19.7% 、 23.1% 。
　　 (3) Mining profitability continues to decline, and enthusiasm for mining keeps cooling down. First, Profits in the mining industry have declined sharply. 2016 Year 1-5 Month: The national mining industry posts profits. 66.60 100 million yuan, down year-on-year 94.0% Among them, profits in the coal mining and washing industry declined year-on-year. 73.4% Profits in the oil and gas extraction industry declined year-on-year. 175.8% 。 Second is The number of valid exploration rights and mining rights continues to decline. 2012 Since the beginning of the year, investors’ interest in the mining industry has明显 declined. As of... 5 At the end of the month, the number of nationally valid exploration licenses decreased year-on-year. 8.6% The registered area decreased year-on-year. 10% ; Effective mining rights decreased year-on-year. 9.6% The transfer of exploration rights and the transfer fees both decreased year-on-year. 7.1% 、 23.9% The transfer of mining rights and the transfer fees both decreased year-on-year. 19.8% 、 14.2% 。 Third is Fixed-asset investment in the mining industry continues to decline. 1-5 Month, the completed amount of fixed-asset investment in the national mining industry 3054.46 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease. 16.40% Among these, investment in coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and ferrous metal mining and beneficiation declined significantly, decreasing year-on-year by... 32.90% 、 16.90% 、 24.50% 。
　　 III. The mining industry is undergoing a reshuffle, redefining its structural landscape. Under the new normal, mining development requires new impetus.

(1) Capacity reduction and management system reform have become important levers for advancing supply-side reform in the mining industry. First, the coal industry is actively pursuing capacity reduction efforts, and debt management has become a binding issue. Resolving excess capacity is, in fact, a continuation and deepening of the coal industry’s efforts to overcome its difficulties over the past few years. 2 Moon 1 On [date], the State Council issued the “Opinions on Resolving Excess Capacity and Achieving Restructuring and Development in the Coal Industry” (Guofa [X] No. [X]). 2016 ] 7 No.), we will adhere to a model driven by market forces, with enterprises as the main actors, local governments taking the lead, and central government providing support. 16 Character principle, from 2016 Starting from the year, use 3-5 Over the course of a year, capacity will be phased out. 5 Hundred million tons, reduction and restructuring 5 hundred million tons. After the document was issued, all relevant provinces, autonomous regions, and relevant departments worked closely together and carried out extensive efforts in areas such as establishing effective working mechanisms, ensuring complementary policies, breaking down targets, and promoting exemplary models. In particular, by implementing adjustments to the “working day” system (each year according to... 276 (Re-determining production capacity on working days) will play a positive role in resolving overcapacity. Although the coal industry has been actively pursuing capacity reduction, coal enterprises generally face high asset-liability ratios, putting tremendous pressure on bank lending. At current coal prices, enterprises are simply unable to do anything about it. Therefore, debt restructuring has become one of the most significant obstacles to capacity reduction in the coal industry. Second is The progress of capacity reduction in enterprises has been uneven, and the timeline for supply-side reform in the mining sector may be prolonged. At present, the fundamental conditions underlying China’s mining-sector supply-side reform have not undergone any radical changes. Under today’s market economy conditions, although private enterprises have largely completed their capacity-reduction efforts, state-owned enterprises—those playing the dominant role—have not only failed to take substantial action on capacity reduction but have instead continued to support their development through loans. Looking at the reform of state-owned enterprises in the production of bulk commodities such as coal, steel, and cement, their current mergers and reorganizations amount merely to a simple aggregation of enterprises, without any genuine substantive transformation. These measures address only the immediate difficulties rather than achieving real reductions in capacity or meaningful industrial restructuring. The key to compressing capacity lies with state-owned enterprises, and it is imperative to establish a new mechanism that ensures the decommissioned capacity will not be reinstated or expanded—a step that represents the very heart of the mining-sector supply-side reform.
　　In addition, reforms to the system for granting mining rights and the national levy system for mineral resources are currently under study. The reform of the mining rights management system is being vigorously advanced, and by deepening the reform of the mining rights approval system, we are promoting the orderly devolution of mining rights approval authority. At present, a pilot program for reforming the exploration and exploitation system of oil and gas resources has been launched in Xinjiang, and the approval authority for coalbed methane exploration and exploitation has already been devolved to Shanxi.
　　 (2) China’s traditional mineral demand is relatively decoupled from economic development, while the social status of modern and emerging minerals continues to rise. First, ... Traditional mineral consumption has already decoupled from, or is on the verge of decoupling from, economic development. The transition from the early to the mid-to-late stages of industrialization also marks a shift in the consumption structure—from traditional minerals toward modern and emerging minerals. The decoupling index indicates that China’s current coal and iron consumption has already entered a relatively decoupled state from economic growth, and as copper, lead, and zinc consumption continues to approach their peak levels, signs of decoupling for these metals will gradually become more evident. Second is Modern and emerging minerals such as oil, gas, aluminum, and rare earth elements—as well as minerals closely related to people’s livelihoods, such as gold and agricultural minerals—continue to exhibit an absolute correlation with economic development in terms of consumption. Third, Chinese mining companies are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions of modern and emerging minerals on a global scale. 2016 Year 4 Last month, China National Gold Corporation and Canada’s Eldorado Gold Corporation formally signed an agreement for the JinFeng gold mine in Guizhou. 82% Equity Purchase Agreement; Sichuan Road & Bridge Mining Investment and Development Co., Ltd. signed an equity transfer agreement with Canadian company Sunrich Gold in Asmara, the capital of Eritrea, to... 6500 The company has officially acquired, for a sum of millions of U.S. dollars, the Eritrean Asmara Mining Company held by it. 60% equity.
　　 (3) Under the new normal, it is necessary to implement two major strategic upgrades to effectively reduce demand for mineral resources. Under the new normal, China’s mining industry needs new impetus and must effectively reduce mineral demand by developing new business models. One is Promote the upgrading of traditional industries to emerging ones, thereby gradually reducing the consumption of bulk mineral products required by traditional industries such as coal, steel, cement, and building materials (this portion of mineral demand accounts for a significant share of total mineral resource consumption). 70% As mentioned above, demand for emerging strategic minerals such as cobalt, niobium, tantalum, graphite, and fluorite will continue to grow (the consumption of these minerals accounts for less than a fraction of total mineral resource consumption). 10% ). Second is Promote the upgrading of traditional business models to new ones. The mutual penetration and deep integration of information network technologies with traditional manufacturing are profoundly transforming industrial organizational structures. These new business models will bring revolutionary changes to conventional production methods, significantly enhancing the efficiency of mineral resource utilization and fundamentally altering resource demand patterns.
　 　IV. Reflections and Recommendations
　　 (1) Promote structural reform of the mining supply side through resource governance. For the mining industry, the key action to implement the Party Central Committee’s spirit of promoting supply-side structural reform is resource governance—focused on increasing resource quantities, enhancing resource quality, and improving resource functionality. The primary task is to win the tough battle of resolving excess capacity. Resource-based cities bear significant responsibilities and tasks in the nationwide strategy for capacity reduction. It is recommended that these cities carry out capacity reduction in a phased and planned manner, following the principle of addressing southern regions before northern ones and smaller cities (county-level cities) before larger ones (prefecture-level cities), thereby systematically adjusting the spatial structure of capacity distribution.
　　 (2) Make active preparations to welcome the new global exploration cycle. In response to the actual situation of declining investment in mineral exploration, we must adopt diversified measures to mobilize enthusiasm from all sectors. We should increase the intensity of investment in mineral exploration and collaborate with large enterprises to generate substantial investment. We need to fully leverage the role of geological survey institutions, integrate their efforts with those of social capital, and encourage private capital to join the ranks of mineral exploration. Furthermore, we must organize scientific and technological research efforts to achieve breakthroughs in key mineral resources such as shale gas, and conduct thorough technical studies on the exploration and extraction of these priority minerals.
　　 (3) The period of sluggish mining activity presents an excellent opportunity for overseas mergers and acquisitions, as well as a favorable chance for global resource governance. The growth of all major mining companies worldwide has been driven by mergers and acquisitions. At present, with low mining prices and depressed valuations, China’s mining industry finds itself at an optimal juncture to go global and expand its operations. Under the current circumstances, bulk commodities such as steel and coal no longer offer attractive investment prospects; however, prices for certain minor metals and non-metallic mineral products are gradually rising and remain at moderate levels, presenting potential investment opportunities. With regard to advantageous resources like tungsten and rare earth elements, we should remain committed to maintaining our existing resource base while pursuing mergers and acquisitions in advanced countries’ deep-processing industries.
　　Developed countries—especially the United States, Canada, and Australia—are strongly pushing ahead with trade and investment liberalization. In contrast, Africa, including some Southeast Asian nations, continues to embrace trade and investment protectionism. Due to the recent downturn in the mining sector, developing countries have largely suspended their restrictive policies. As a result, international cooperation has become increasingly soft, encompassing policy dialogues between developed and developing countries as well as the establishment of platforms for sharing technology and scientific knowledge. Resource-allocation activities conducted by developed countries and international organizations dominated by them are highly active, and their main policy positions are remarkably similar. However, overall, these efforts lack authority and find it difficult to reach consensus. China, within this broader international context, occupies a middle ground: it cannot align itself fully with developed countries, nor can it completely follow the path of reverse globalization advocated by many developing countries. Thus, China finds itself squarely in the middle—and it is precisely this middle position that may present an opportunity for China to advocate for global resource governance.
　　 (4) Adhere to bottom-line thinking and focus on preventing extreme risks that may arise from over-reliance on foreign resources. Currently, resource security has risen to a level of equal importance with economic security. To ensure national resource security, it is necessary to establish targeted bottom-line indicators tailored to different types of resources, different time periods, and varying circumstances. In safeguarding resource security and mitigating extreme resource risks, we must focus on enhancing resource-use efficiency through industrial structural adjustments and upgrades, as well as by leveraging technological and institutional innovations, thereby steadily decoupling resource consumption from economic growth.
　　It is worth noting that although China’s production and consumption of coal—the country’s primary energy source—have both shown a relative decoupling from economic growth, the peak and turning point in the consumption of China’s major energy resources are still far from being reached. Prematurely asserting that China’s energy consumption has already reached its turning point would be detrimental to China’s socio-economic development and the achievement of its long-term goals, and could even negatively affect the formulation of China’s strategy for engaging in international climate change negotiations. (Affiliation: China Institute of Land and Resources Economics)