“ The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-hiking process depends on the U.S. economic outlook, and it is expected to raise rates one to two times this year. 5 Moon 14 On the first Metal Summit Forum held by CITIC Anxin Futures in Shanghai, Wu Xinbo, Executive Deputy Director of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University and Director of the U.S. Studies Center, stated.

　　Although last year 12 The Federal Reserve raises interest rates this month. “ The boots hit the ground. ” However, this year has seen no progress in taking the next step—despite earlier market expectations that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates this year. 4 Next.

　　On this point, Wu Xinbo stated, “ Last year 12 Immediately following the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike of the month, the U.S. dollar strengthened while U.S. exports declined. Against the backdrop of the U.S. government’s efforts to revitalize manufacturing, declining exports are particularly unfavorable for it. Although last year it had been anticipated that the Fed would... 4 The next rate hike—but for now, it looks like the Fed won’t raise rates in the first quarter. 6 Signs of a rate hike this month remain unclear. ”

　　Overall, Wu Xinbo believes that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at most twice this year. However, if it doesn't raise rates in the first half of the year, there should be only one rate hike in the second half.

　　 “6 Whether interest rates will be raised this month mainly depends on... 4–5 The moon's economic performance, as of now, 4 There are some signs that monthly economic growth may be better than in the first quarter. If... 5 The month can maintain this growth momentum, 6 The monthly interest rate may be raised once, but even so... 6 With the monthly interest rate hike, the magnitude of the increase is unlikely to be too large. ” Wu Xinbo expects that the timing for interest rate hikes in the second half of the year may be... 9 After the month.

　　On the issue of interest-rate hikes, the mainstream market view currently is that the Federal Reserve will definitely raise interest rates this year—though the timing remains to be seen. So, can these rate hikes push the U.S. dollar to new highs?

　　Cai Dongcheng, a director at Shanghai Juejue Investment, frankly admitted that he remains bearish on the U.S. dollar in the long term. “ Even if there are temporary rallies along the way, from a longer-term perspective, the U.S. dollar will ultimately revert to a downward trend. Additionally, from... CFTC According to the data from the position reports, net long positions in the U.S. dollar are also on a gradual downward trend. ” Cai Dongcheng stated.

　　Cai Dongcheng believes it’s still too early to determine whether the worst of the commodity futures market has already passed. However, considering factors such as the underlying structural dynamics and the macroeconomic environment, metal prices are likely to see a rebound in the second half of the year. “ Little Spring ” It’s a highly probable event; at least, the outlook for metal prices in the third quarter won’t be overly pessimistic.

　　 “ Including the Chinese market, consumption of certain metal varieties will certainly experience a significant leap in the future—possibly within the next three to five years. ” Cai Dongcheng said.

　　Qi Ding, Manager of the Nonferrous Metals Research Department at Anxin Securities, believes that... “ The U.S. dollar has recently shown strong performance, putting pressure on overseas liquidity. However, amid a global race among central banks to inject liquidity into the economy, the dollar’s strength will likely prove unsustainable. ”

　　On the fundamental front, Qi Ding believes that supply-side structural reforms are gaining momentum, while demand-side stimulus is slightly weakening. “ Currently, supply contraction continues. The recent decline in commodity prices will further prompt companies to cut production and suppress resumption of operations. However, the rebound in demand is showing signs of weakening. 5 Economic data at the beginning of the month showed a broad-based slowdown, with seasonal inventory replenishment and the intensity of policy stimulus both easing. “ Qi Ding stated.

　　In addition, Guo Qiuying, a researcher at CITIC Anxin Futures, stated frankly that, regarding metals, she is relatively optimistic about the performance of zinc prices in the later period. “ Zinc demand has performed relatively well, thanks to infrastructure support. Looking at the consumption structure of zinc, the proportion of galvanized products is... 57% The construction sector is the largest consumer of galvanized products. ” Guo Qiuying expects a supply-demand gap for zinc this year and remains bullish on zinc prices within the year.