— Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the September 2015 PMIs for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

　　On October 1, 2015, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing jointly released the China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation of these figures.

　　 I. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed a slight rebound.

　　In September, the manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, marking a slight rebound after two consecutive months of decline. The key features of this month’s manufacturing PMI performance are as follows: First, both production and market demand showed signs of recovery. The production index stood at 52.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The new orders index reached 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Second, as structural adjustments and transformation and upgrading continue to advance, the quality of economic performance continues to improve. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing rose to 55.6%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new high for the year so far. Among these, the PMIs for industries such as pharmaceutical manufacturing and computer and communications equipment were particularly strong. Third, driven by consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, industries related to consumer goods continued to maintain a relatively robust growth trend, with their PMI reaching 55.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, the PMIs for industries such as food, alcoholic beverages, agricultural and sideline products, and tobacco remained consistently in the expansion range, while the automotive industry has once again moved above the critical threshold.

　　Although the PMI has rebounded somewhat this month, it remains below the critical threshold and is still lower than the level observed during the same period in previous years, indicating that both domestic and external demand remain weak and downward pressure on the manufacturing sector remains significant.

　　By enterprise size, large enterprises performed better than small and medium-sized enterprises. The PMI for large enterprises came in at 51.1%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, returning above the critical threshold. Meanwhile, the PMIs for medium- and small-sized enterprises were 48.5% and 46.8%, respectively, both down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month and remaining below the critical threshold. This indicates that small and medium-sized enterprises continue to face relatively difficult operating and production conditions, underscoring the need to further intensify policy support.

　 　II. The non-manufacturing business activity index remained unchanged from the previous month.

　　In September 2015, China’s non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 53.4%, unchanged from the previous month. The business expectations index came in at 60.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector continues to maintain steady growth and market confidence remains stable.

　　Looking at different sectors, the business activity index for the service sector came in at 53.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. As the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays draw near, service sectors closely tied to consumer spending are entering their peak season. Among these, sectors such as accommodation, express delivery, retail, telecommunications, and internet software have experienced relatively rapid growth, serving as the primary drivers behind the rebound in the service sector’s business activity index. The business activity index for the financial sector showed some improvement compared to the previous month; however, the securities industry remained below the critical threshold, indicating that the market is still in a phase of self-correction and adjustment. Meanwhile, the new orders index for the service sector stood at 50.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, signaling a trend toward stabilization in service-sector market demand.

The business activity index for the construction industry was 55.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month. In September, the business activity index for residential construction remained in a relatively high prosperity range, yet it saw a substantial month-on-month decline. Meanwhile, with the acceleration of infrastructure projects, the civil engineering construction sector achieved rapid growth, and its business activity index rose on a month-on-month basis. In September, the construction industry’s business expectations index stood at 64.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that enterprises remain relatively optimistic about future market prospects.