In the first half of this year, Shanghai copper futures prices generally followed a trend of rising initially and then falling. Market participants are clearly divided on how copper prices will perform in the second half of the year.

　　Looking back at the fluctuating pace of copper prices in the first half of the year: This year 1 After experiencing a quarterly decline last year, copper prices rebounded sharply this month; however, 5 The downward trend resumed at the end of the month, however, since... 6 After mid-month, futures prices gradually began to stabilize. 。

Analysts believe that, since the fourth quarter of last year, thanks to a series of steady-growth measures introduced by the central government—such as the People's Bank of China— [ Weibo ] Interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions—through. PSL With tools geared toward easing restrictions, the NDRC is accelerating the approval process for infrastructure projects, and the Ministry of Finance has introduced... 1 Trillions in local debt swaps and the like have caused copper prices to once approach... 20% the rebound. However, since 5 Starting in the latter half of the month, as the seasonal peak season comes to an end and the brief rebound in demand passes, copper prices once again begin to... 5 The high point in the early part of the month fell sharply. 6 After mid-month, futures prices have stabilized somewhat.

　 　Market views have diverged on how copper prices will perform in the second half of the year.

　　Chen Xu, an analyst at Founder Zhongqi Futures, believes: “ Amid tightening monetary policies abroad and ongoing domestic reforms, the copper market has seen only limited support from macroeconomic factors. With supply constraints remaining limited and demand weak, copper prices have continued to remain in a weak position recently. Copper prices are expected to follow an overall trend of initial decline followed by a rebound in the second half of the year, with the overall trading range being... 36000 Yuan / Tons to 46000 Yuan / Ton. ”

　　On the macro front, U.S. economic data for the second quarter gradually improved compared to the first quarter, and the Eurozone economy continued to show steady improvement supported by accommodative monetary policies. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index halted its decline and rebounded, putting downward pressure on copper prices. Looking ahead, as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes approach, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain volatile but generally strong, making it difficult for commodity prices to stage a significant rebound. From a domestic perspective, expectations for domestic reforms remain unchanged, and the recovery in the property market continues to provide stimulus to the economy; however, the economy still faces downside risks.

　　On the supply and demand front, on the one hand, global copper markets have indeed experienced a certain degree of tightening in supply due to factors such as frequent climate disruptions, strikes, and large-scale production shutdowns for maintenance. However, historical data show that El Niño has not had a particularly significant impact on copper mine production, while copper output from Chile and Peru continues to grow robustly. Taken together, the tightening of supply has had only limited impact on copper prices. On the other hand, the phenomenon of a weak peak season is putting downward pressure on copper prices. As for demand, key copper-consuming sectors such as real estate, automobiles, and white goods still face considerable inventory pressures. From the perspective of financing needs, since last year’s fraud case involving loans at Qingdao Port, banks have tightened their copper-financing operations, leading to a substantial decline in demand for copper financing.

　　From an economic-cycle perspective, as the cumulative effects of measures to stabilize growth become apparent, China’s economy is expected to see stabilization in its short-term cycle during the third quarter, which could create a window for a temporary rebound in copper prices.

　　However, some analysts also believe that... 9 Moon and 10 The second half of the year marks the peak construction season, especially for power grid projects, and demand will see a temporary rebound during this period. However, as copper mine production and refined copper output resume their accelerated growth in the second half, coupled with the hidden inventory accumulated from weak consumption in the first half, copper supply pressures will intensify in the second half of the year. Moreover, the fourth quarter is traditionally a slow season for copper consumption, and once the policy-driven boosts fade away, the economy will likely return to a state of weakness. Under the backdrop of reform dividends, the later stages of industrialization, and economic structural transformation, the industrial manufacturing sector... GDP With the decline in economic growth momentum, even if the economy stabilizes, it won't necessarily mean that manufacturing stabilizes. Consequently, copper consumption won't rebound significantly simply because the economy has stabilized. Coupled with the U.S. dollar regaining strength in the second half of the year and rising real interest rates, speculative demand for copper will be squeezed, potentially driving copper prices to new lows again in the second half of the year.