Nonferrous metal prices fall; leading listed companies face no worries about their performance.
Release time:
2015-07-14
Source:
Securities Daily
It is understood that, 7 Moon 7 Today, on the London Metal Exchange, copper prices fell. 4.5% Nickel prices have fallen. 9% Aluminum prices have fallen. 1% Lead prices have fallen. 2.5% 。
7 Moon 7 On that day, international commodity prices fell across the board. In the non-ferrous metals sector, the London Metal Exchange ( LME Taking the prices of six major metals as an example, copper prices have fallen. 4.5% Nickel prices fall. 9% Aluminum prices fall. 1% , to 1666 U.S. dollar / Ton; lead prices fall 2.5% , to 1722 U.S. dollar / Ton, lead price compared to 5 Moon 5 The daily high fell by more than 20%。
Regarding the reasons behind the recent decline in commodity prices, some analysts point out that, in addition to volatility in China's domestic stock market, the spreading Greek crisis has also played a role. Recently, Greece held a nationwide referendum in which a majority of voters opposed the Greek government’s acceptance of the bailout terms proposed by international creditors, thereby jeopardizing further crucial aid funding. This development has heightened uncertainty within the eurozone, prompting market concerns about the potential spread of risks and their possible impact on Europe’s energy demand and demand for other commodities.
Whether nonferrous metal prices can rebound still depends on the balance between supply and demand.
Yesterday, analysts told reporters from the Securities Daily that although several other factors are influencing the prices of nonferrous metal products in the current commodity market, from a medium- to long-term perspective, the supply-demand relationship remains the core driver behind industrial metal prices. “ Although the logic behind stimulus policies boosting metal prices holds some potential, this has yet to materialize at the economic level, and it’s difficult to foresee a significant improvement in future metal demand. Compared to the demand side, the supply side is more flexible; the current contraction in supply is largely driven by expectations rather than actual conditions. ”
According to what our reporter has learned, in China's aluminum industry, 2015 The period of rapid expansion in the industry’s annual scale is nearing its end, yet the issue of overcapacity remains unresolved. Some analysts predict that the dilemma of low prices coupled with high capacity is likely to persist for a long time to come. Regarding aluminum prices, the analyst forecasts that the second half of the year will continue the narrow range of fluctuations seen in the first half, with the price fluctuation range remaining at per ton. 12500 Yuan -13500 Around this level. The trend is unfolding in a three-part sequence: the first act confirms the bottoming-out phase and capacity reduction, with prices at... 12500 Above the yuan; the two-part structure is experiencing narrow-range fluctuations as it moves into the stage of destocking by producers, with the core mid-range segment... 13000 Near the yuan; the trilogy demand shows a weak rebound amid seasonal improvement, with the highest point reaching... 13500 Near the yuan. As we enter the off-season for demand, if macroeconomic demand falls short of expectations, prices could once again come under downward pressure and fall further. 13000 Near the Yuan.
As for copper, copper prices saw a significant rebound in the first half of this year amid a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Indeed, in the first half of the year, copper concentrate production declined in the first quarter due to factors such as drought, equipment maintenance, and worker strikes, leading to a corresponding spot market for copper concentrate. TC From the unit 130 Down to the present 92.5 However, according to the quarterly reports from the eight major mines, factors that could lead to production cuts are gradually fading away. Moreover, with more small mining companies coming online in the second half of the year, domestic smelting bottlenecks are being steadily alleviated, and global production is expected to remain at a high level in the second half. On the demand side, China's copper consumption—weighed down by the real estate sector—is likely to see a significant slowdown in growth or even a contraction. As a result, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating and testing lower levels during the third quarter.
In addition to commodities, China’s rare-earth prices have also recently seen a decline. According to the Ganzhou City Rare-Earth Industry Association, following... 6 After the Ganzhou Rare Earth Industry Association raised the guiding price for ion-adsorption rare earth ores in the latter half of the month, 7 In the early part of the month, guiding prices saw a downward adjustment. This time, the price reductions for some minerals were relatively substantial, with each ton experiencing a decrease. 1 Ten thousand yuan to 3 ranging from 10,000 yuan. Among them, the medium-yttrium-rich europium ore has been lowered. 2 Ten thousand -3 Ten thousand yuan to 19 Ten thousand yuan—Longnan high-yttrium ore price reduced. 2 Ten thousand yuan to 20 Ten thousand yuan—Anyuan high-yttrium ore also lowered its price. 2 Ten thousand yuan to 19 Ten thousand yuan. Meanwhile, the low-yttrium and low-europium ore deposit in Xunwu has been downgraded. 1 Ten thousand yuan to 13 Ten thousand yuan.
“ Given the current situation, non-ferrous metals continue to face downward pressure, awaiting the next traditional peak consumption season. Golden September, Silver October The improvement in month-on-month consumption driven by positive factors, or the rapid decline in prices leading to adjustments in the industry’s supply structure. ” The aforementioned analysts told reporters.
In the non-ferrous metals industry, more than half of the interim report forecasts are positive.
Although prices of nonferrous metals have recently declined, listed companies in the domestic nonferrous metals sector remain relatively optimistic. Yesterday, reporters from the Securities Daily called several leading nonferrous metal enterprises, all of which indicated that the current price drop has yet to impact their businesses; rather, they are primarily concerned with the improving supply-demand relationship.
Also according to Eastmoney. Choice According to statistical data, currently, in the non-ferrous metals industry... 98 Among listed companies, there is already 43 The company released its interim report forecast for this year, which includes: 4 Household losses, 11 Home pre-increase, 5 Home pre-reduction, 2 Jia Xu Ying, 2 Continued losses, 4 First loss at home, 4 Turn the company around and stop losses. 10 Slight increase in household, 1 More companies are forecasting profit increases than reporting losses. 50%。
Looking at the projected growth rates of net profits, companies such as Volcore Materials, Chang Aluminum Shares, Gangtai Holdings, Shengtun Mining, China National Nonferrous Metals Corporation, Jiangfen Magnetic Materials, and Tianqi Lithium stand out. 7 The company expects net profit growth to exceed 100% Among them, Wol Nuclear Materials is expected to see the highest growth in net profit, up to... 810%。
According to Wol Nuclear Materials 5 Moon 9 Released on the day 2015 The announcement revising the company’s semi-annual performance forecast indicates that the company expects... 2015 Year 1 Month to 6 Monthly forecast: Net profit growth 810% To 840% The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is expected to be: 3.58 From 100 million to 3.71 hundred million yuan. Regarding the reasons for the increase in net profit, the company stated, 2015 Year 5 Moon 7 Day, Changyuan Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “ Changyuan Group ” ) was convened 2014 At the annual general meeting of shareholders, the proposals “On the Election of a New Board of Directors” and “On the Election of a New Supervisory Board” were reviewed and approved. The company nominated directors, independent directors, and supervisors to Changyuan Group. 1 The names were all approved.
The company has nominated an independent director to Changyuan Group. 1 Name, appointed directors, and supervisors each 1 Name together 3 Distinguished representatives, according to 2014 The newly revised “Enterprise Accounting Standards No. [number]” issued by the Ministry of Finance this year 2 Number —— Long-term equity investment—The company’s investment in Changyuan Group meets the criteria for recognition as a long-term equity investment and is accounted for accordingly. 2015 Year 5 Moon 7 Rizhangyuan Group measures the fair value of this investment based on the closing price and will adjust the fair value from... “ Financial assets available for sale ” Transfer to “ Long-term equity investment ” , the gains arising from changes in fair value from “ Other Comprehensive Income ” Transfer to “ Investment income ” The above factors have led to a significant increase in the company’s net profit for this period compared to the same period last year.