7 Moon 8 On that day, data showed that the shipment delivered to Qingdao Port in China had a certain grade. 62% The Platts iron ore price has plummeted to per ton. 44.59 The U.S. dollar. In addition, affected by A Affected by the stock market downturn, iron ore futures hit the daily limit down for three consecutive trading days this week, marking the lowest level since... 2009 A new low since the year.

　　Pessimistic sentiment has once again spread in the iron ore market. With increased production from Australia and Brazil and declining demand from China, iron ore prices plunged again this past Monday.

　　According to monitoring data from the Xiben New Line, entering... 7 Since last month, iron ore prices have once again entered a downward trend. 7 Moon 8 On that day, data from the British publication Metal Bulletin showed that the shipments delivered to Qingdao Port in China had a certain grade. 62% The Platts iron ore price has plummeted to per ton. 44.59 The U.S. dollar. This is... 2009 Year 5 The lowest level on record for the month. Data provider. Clarkson Plc The information shows that, compared to the annual benchmark price, this is... 2005 the lowest price since the year. In addition, affected by... A Affected by the stock market downturn, iron ore futures hit the daily limit down for three consecutive trading days this week, marking the lowest level since... 2009 A new low since the year.

　　In the view of Yin Pengqi, an analyst at Golden Island, China is the largest consumer of iron ore. A The impact of the sharp stock market decline on the commodity market goes without saying. However, Qiu Yuecheng, a senior researcher at Xiben New Line, told reporters from the Daily Economic News that entering... 7 Since last month, the scope of steel mills’ production cuts and maintenance shutdowns has rapidly expanded, and since last week, raw material prices have begun to fall at an accelerating pace.

Citigroup and others predict that, due to increased supply, international iron ore prices will fall to per ton in the fourth quarter. 40 Below the dollar.

　 　Mineral prices plummeted within a month. 3 Become

　　Although in 60 U.S. dollar / The ton threshold has been reached. “ station ” January has passed, but that doesn’t mean mineral prices are already safe. In fact, the return to... 40 U.S. dollar / In the era of tons, iron ore took only one week. As we enter this week, iron ore futures have hit the daily limit-down price consecutively from Monday to Wednesday.

　　7 Moon 8 Day, iron ore 1509 The contract opened lower at 365 Yuan / tons, after which it fluctuated downward and hit the daily limit down, ultimately closing at 349 Yuan / Ton. That evening, when European markets opened, iron ore prices plummeted. 11% To 44.10 U.S. dollar / Ton, setting a recent record. 10 Year's low.

　　In the spot market for iron ore, 7 Moon 8 The day, known as the iron ore wind vane—Platts 62% The index fell in just one day. 5.25 U.S. dollar / ton, a decline of more than 10% It is worth noting that, as of... 7 Moon 8 Day, Pushi 62% Iron Ore Index 44.5 U.S. dollar / The ton price quote, compared to one month ago. 65.75 U.S. dollar / The price reached a phased high of tons, with a decline exceeding 30%.

　　In May and June of this year, iron ore prices once climbed to... 60 U.S. dollar / The ton threshold—the seemingly unusual situation—has persisted for over a month.

　　According to data provided by the China Iron and Steel Association, influenced by factors such as sustained high levels of steel production, the gradual closure of high-cost mines, and the continued decline in iron ore inventories at ports, domestic iron ore prices have been... 4 The moon has begun to rebound steadily.

　　At the time, Mi Pengqi also analyzed that the contraction in iron ore production has led to a rapid decline in port inventories. Meanwhile, domestic steel mills have finished their maintenance shutdowns, and the pace of cargo pickup has picked up somewhat, providing significant support for iron ore prices.

　　Data provided by Zhuochuang Information to reporters from the Daily Economic News shows that, entering... 5 Since the middle to late part of the month, Australia’s iron ore shipments to China have returned to normal levels, with volumes reaching... 1200 Over 10,000 tons. The shipment volume of Brazilian iron ore is... 5 The last week of the month ( 5 Moon 25~31 Day) Reach 760 Ten thousand tons, for 2015 A new high since the year.

　　However, as iron ore production and shipments from Brazil and Australia increase, the supply-demand balance for iron ore has once again undergone a sharp shift. According to the latest data released by Xiben New Line, 7 Moon 3 This week, domestic iron ore port inventories increased. 305 From ten thousand tons to 8185 Ten thousand tons, with a weekly increase of 3.87% Domestic port iron ore inventories ended a ten-week streak of declines.

Qiu Yuecheng told reporters that the increase in port inventories is one reason for the downward trend in iron ore prices, while, from another perspective, steel companies’ decision to halt production due to losses represents yet another contributing factor.

　 　There is still room for further declines.

　　 “ Personally, I believe the trough for iron ore has already passed—at its lowest point. 40 When the U.S. dollar strengthens, more iron ore producers are unable to supply enough. FMG Zhuang Binjun, Director of Business Development, views the trend of mineral prices in this way.

　　But Zhuang Binjun also set a precondition: “ If China’s crude steel production drops significantly in the second half of the year, iron ore prices will likely continue to fall. ”。

　　Unfortunately, as domestic demand has fallen short, steel prices have experienced a broad and substantial decline. After continuously hitting new historic lows, steel companies’ production enthusiasm has been noticeably dampened.

　　In Qiu Yuecheng’s view, 6 Steel companies have already suffered substantial losses this month, yet most are still struggling to keep production going—despite the financial strain—in order to maintain cash flow and market share. As a result, operating rates remain high, which is precisely why China’s domestic steel market has continued to show this performance over the past few months. “ Mining strong, steel weak. ” The main reason.

　　 Mysteel Yu 7 Moon 3 The survey on blast furnace utilization rates at Japanese steel mills shows that the blast furnace utilization rate for the week was... 83.39% decreased compared to the previous week 1.86 percentage points, while profitable steel mills account for only 7.36% , compared to the previous week 13.49% A sharp decline.

　　Qiu Yuecheng believes that entering... 7 A month later, as losses continued to worsen and the mid-year pressure of concentrated loan repayments eased, steel mills have rapidly expanded the scope of production cuts and maintenance shutdowns—particularly in billet-rolling enterprises, which have largely come to a complete halt.

　　In a report, ANZ stated that, “ The market’s primary concern is that while low-cost producers in Australia and Brazil continue to increase production, demand from China is slowing down. ”

　　In the second quarter, mainstream mining companies have纷纷 adjusted their expansion plans. With the exception of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP Billiton, and... FMG Numerous companies have announced the suspension of their expansion plans. Judging from publicly released information, 2015 The output of the four major mines has not changed; the main slowdown is in... 2016–2017 The annual production plan.

　　Publicly available information shows that as of... 2015 Year 5 In the month, iron ore exported from Australia to China accounted for a certain percentage of the country's total iron ore imports. 64.7% This accounts for nearly two-thirds of the total import volume. In response, Mi Pengqi told a reporter from the Daily Economic News that Brazilian mines are mainly constrained by their longer transportation distances, resulting in higher transportation costs compared to Australian mines. However, as Vale... 40 With large vessels of tens of thousands of tons docking smoothly along curved shorelines, the disadvantages of Brazilian ore have already faded away.

　　Previously, Citigroup lowered its long-term price forecast for iron ore—a commodity—by one-third to: 55 U.S. dollar / tons, and is expected to in 2016 To 2018 The average price of this commodity over the years was approximately. 40 U.S. dollar / Ton.

　　Analysts have become increasingly bearish on the outlook for iron ore, a major commodity, in recent weeks. Given the cyclical weakness in iron ore demand, most forecasts predict that iron ore prices will continue to decline in the third quarter.