The Chinese economy is entering “ New Normal ” Subsequently, as the quality of economic growth improves, weak areas will achieve substantial progress, the economic structure will become more rational, and incomes of both urban and rural residents will rise across the board. As a result, China’s markets for nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel will exhibit four major trends in the future.

　　One, Economic growth is slowing, yet the scale of demand remains enormous.

　　In recent years, China’s economic growth has slowed down, and demand for nonferrous metals has also continued to decelerate. However, due to the continually rising base figure for comparison, the overall scale of these markets remains enormous. For example: 2014 China's economic growth rate slowed to... 7.4% Around, but its increment alone is equivalent to that of the last century. 90 Early years 1 the country's total economic output. By the same token, although China's demand for non-ferrous metals ( 10 The growth rate of apparent consumption of non-ferrous metals (the same applies below) has fallen from the previous double-digit figure to... 6% Around, but their absolute numbers remain astonishing—currently every... 1 A percentage-point increase, resulting in an additional demand for non-ferrous metals of nearly... 50 Ten thousand tons, equivalent to the last century. 90 Early years 10 A growth rate of percentage points. Preliminary calculation results show that... 2014 China's apparent consumption of non-ferrous metals is approaching... 4800 Ten thousand tons, 2015 The year is about to pass. 5000 At the 10,000-ton mark, this segment accounts for a substantial portion of global total consumption. The scale is truly enormous and continues to grow steadily.

　　II. The quality of economic growth has improved, and new bright spots in demand are emerging.

　　Despite its already massive size, China’s demand for nonferrous metals continues to grow steadily, primarily because China is placing greater emphasis on the quality of economic growth going forward, giving rise to new areas of demand and serving as a fresh driving force behind the expansion of China’s nonferrous metal demand.

　　First is the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector. Although China has already become... “ World's Factory ” However, from the perspective of industrial structure, the light textile and raw material processing industries account for a large share, while core technology industries and major mechanical equipment industries remain relatively weak. Being big but not strong is a key characteristic of China’s manufacturing sector today. According to the “Made in China” plan compiled by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, ... 2025 Plan, to 2025 In the year [year], China is set to surpass countries such as Germany and Japan in manufacturing and become a global industrial powerhouse. To achieve this goal, China not only needs to catch up in fundamental areas like basic materials, core components, basic processes, and industrial technological foundations; it also needs to see the emergence of a group of leading Chinese enterprises that can compete on an equal footing with world-class companies such as Germany’s Siemens and the U.S.’s General Electric. Moreover, this will trigger significant structural changes in China’s manufacturing sector: specifically, the share of light textile industries and general processing industries within China’s manufacturing sector will decline, while the proportion of electromechanical industries—such as electronics, high-speed rail, nuclear power, automobiles, and mechanical equipment—will rise markedly. As the electromechanical industry is a major consumer of nonferrous metals, its growth will lead to an increase in the per-unit output value of China’s manufacturing sector in terms of nonferrous metal content, thereby boosting the intensity of China’s consumption of nonferrous metals.

　　Next is the transformation and upgrading of transportation infrastructure. As China’s economic growth becomes increasingly high-quality, its transportation infrastructure will also undergo large-scale transformation and upgrading. This is primarily driven by the rapid development of electrified railways between cities—especially high-speed railways—and by the rapid expansion of electrified urban rail transit systems, which are increasingly replacing traditional gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles and tire-based transportation systems. Consequently, demand for various nonferrous metals is bound to rise accordingly.

　　Next is the transformation and upgrading of housing construction. As land for construction becomes increasingly intensive in the future, a large number of single-story and low-rise buildings—especially numerous rural dwellings—will be replaced by multi-story structures of 10 or even dozens of floors, built with reinforced concrete and steel. These new buildings will require significantly less non-ferrous metals, while simultaneously driving up demand for lightweight materials such as aluminum, corrosion-resistant decorative materials like nickel and zinc, and high-conductivity materials such as copper. It can be said that the per-unit-area consumption of non-ferrous metals generated by modern urban buildings will be tens or even hundreds of times greater than that of traditional buildings, particularly those in rural areas. With the large-scale development of China’s urbanization and the widespread adoption of intensive land-use practices in construction, China’s non-ferrous metal industry will gain a new foundation for growth.

　　Finally, there’s large-scale infrastructure development and the spillover effects of such infrastructure construction. Since the beginning of the new century, China’s infrastructure development has been rapidly advancing. To stabilize China’s economic growth, the National Development and Reform Commission has— 2014 Year 4 Since the beginning of the quarter, a large number of infrastructure investment projects—including railway transportation and water conservancy—have been swiftly approved, with total investments amounting to several trillion yuan. Even so, at this stage, China’s infrastructure still represents a weak link in the national economy. For instance, there is a severe shortage in the construction of urban rail transit systems, underground pipe networks, and environmental protection facilities, leaving considerable room for further development. These infrastructure projects require substantial amounts of nonferrous metals. Not long ago, the decision-making authorities proposed... “ The Belt and Road ” Construction has become an important aspect of China's economic development. “ The Belt and Road ” The focus is primarily on infrastructure development, starting with the construction of transportation facilities such as high-speed railways. High-speed railways are not only... “ Steel Avenue ” and also “ Nonferrous Metals Avenue ” Of course, this will require substantial consumption of nonferrous metals. Moreover, China’s infrastructure development—particularly in transportation and pipeline projects such as high-speed railways—will generate significant spillover effects. For instance, neighboring countries and developed nations are extending their own high-speed rail networks into areas adjacent to China’s projects. Coupled with China’s robust infrastructure production capacity and the globally strong demand for infrastructure construction, the total spillover effect could amount to tens of trillions of U.S. dollars. As infrastructure construction spillovers continue to flourish, China’s demand for nonferrous metals—driven by exports of Chinese machinery, construction equipment, and building materials—will also surge.

　　In short, as China’s economy continues to develop—especially as the quality of growth keeps improving and the economic structure becomes increasingly rational—with modernization replacing traditional development, new bright spots in China’s demand for nonferrous metals are constantly emerging. Although it is difficult to precisely quantify specific figures, the incremental demand triggered by these developments is undoubtedly substantial. Thus, what accompanies the shift in China’s economic growth model is not a decline in nonferrous metal consumption, but rather a significant increase in its consumption intensity.

　　III. Strict environmental enforcement is curbing capacity expansion.

　　For some time now, while China’s nonferrous metals industry has been rapidly developing, it has also triggered serious environmental pollution. In particular, some private enterprises lack the capacity to treat pollutants and are emitting pollutants far above regulatory standards, becoming... “ The suffering of the people's livelihood, the pain in the hearts of the people. ” a key participant. At the National People's Congress, President Xi Jinping emphasized that we must show zero tolerance toward any behavior that damages the ecological environment and ensure that such violations are firmly punished without making any exceptions. To this end, the Government Work Report once again pledged to tackle China’s environmental pollution with an iron fist and elaborated on... 2015 The annual pollution control target: Carbon dioxide emission intensity must be reduced. 3.1% Above, both chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen emissions must be reduced. 2% By the way, emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are to be reduced separately. 3% Left and right and 5% Left and right.

　　2015 Before the new year 2 In the past month, the national output of ten non-ferrous metals was: 656 10,000 tons, an increase compared to the same period last year. 6.1% The year-on-year growth rates of major non-ferrous metal product output mostly fall within... 6% Left and right; metal content of six types of concentrate ores, including copper, lead, zinc, tungsten, tin, and antimony. 115.9 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 2.2% Overall, the growth trend remains at a medium-to-low level. If governments at all levels in China were truly to adopt stringent measures to tackle environmental pollution, all enterprises in the nonferrous metals industry chain—particularly those private enterprises engaged in metal smelting, rolling and processing, as well as the production of scrap metal and ores—which currently fail to meet environmental standards would inevitably face significant constraints. Some outdated enterprises and excess production capacity would be forced to exit the market. As a result, the output of the aforementioned products in China would, without exception, slow down or even experience an absolute decline.

　　4. Significant price advantages, with increasing reliance on overseas imports.

　　On the one hand, China’s economic development has boosted demand for nonferrous metals; on the other hand, due to domestic resource shortages and the need for energy conservation, emission reduction, and environmental protection, the release of domestic capacity for nonferrous metals has been significantly constrained. As a result, the gap between supply and demand has widened, necessitating increased imports to bridge this gap. Precisely because of this, China’s imports of nonferrous metals—including copper ore, alumina, and other smelting raw materials (the same applies hereinafter)—have consistently maintained a growth trend and have not been severely impacted by the continued slowdown in economic growth. Customs statistics show that... 2014 Last year, the country's imports of just the two major non-ferrous metals—copper and aluminum—as well as their smelting raw materials reached... 2277 10,000 tons, an increase over the previous year. 17.6% 。2015 Although the growth rate of imports slowed down over the first two months of the year, this trend is unlikely to persist. If we convert both mineral ores and scrap metals into their metal content, the total annual imports of various nonferrous metals are expected to exceed... 3000 Ten thousand tons, maintaining a relatively high level.

　　China’s imports of non-ferrous metals are showing a growing trend, partly due to the clear price competitiveness of overseas products. Given strong expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as well as increasingly accommodative monetary policies from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, the U.S. dollar is expected to continue appreciating in the next phase, and the U.S. dollar index... “ Break 100 ” This is set to become a highly probable event. As a result of this development, prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel in international markets—denominated in U.S. dollars—will likely fall further, thereby enhancing the import competitiveness of China’s non-ferrous metal products.

　　The sharp drop in international prices of nonferrous metals represents an excellent opportunity from the perspective of China’s overall economic development. Not only does this help China conserve energy and reduce emissions, thereby easing environmental pressures, but it also lowers China’s development costs. According to preliminary estimates, based on this year’s full-year imports of various nonferrous metals... 3000 10,000 tons (including the equivalent of ore and scrap metal), assuming the average price per ton declines. 100 The U.S. dollar will thus reduce China's import costs. 30 hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars. We must seize this rare historical opportunity and, in a step-by-step manner, significantly increase our imports of nonferrous metals such as copper and nickel, as well as smelting raw materials, thereby expanding both our strategic reserves and commercial reserves and strengthening China’s overall national strength.