“In 2023, the nonferrous metals industry is expected to continue operating steadily overall. The output of the 10 commonly used nonferrous metals is forecast to increase by around 3.5%, potentially surpassing 70 million tons; the growth rate of industrial value-added will be approximately 4.5%.” At the press conference on the performance of the nonferrous metals industry in 2022, Chen Xuesen, a member of the Party Committee Standing Committee, Vice President, and spokesperson of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated that, considering both the global and domestic economic environments, the Chinese nonferrous metals industry will benefit from multiple favorable factors in 2023, ensuring the industry maintains steady operations.
　　In 2023, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment in the nonferrous metals industry is expected to remain between 5% and 10%. Imports of raw materials such as copper and aluminum ores will likely stay stable or increase slightly; however, it is highly probable that the growth rate of aluminum exports will slow down. Nonferrous metals prices are likely to show a trend of stability with a slight downward tendency. It is estimated that nonferrous metals enterprises will achieve profits of around 300 billion yuan for the year.
　　In 2022, China’s nonferrous metals industry calmly addressed risks and challenges, energetically fulfilled its tasks of reform, development, and stability, and showed a steady and positive trend. In 2023, a series of policies aimed at stabilizing growth will gradually take effect, providing support for the stable operation of the nonferrous metals industry.
　　The development of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power will further boost demand for non-ferrous metals including aluminum, industrial silicon, and rare earth elements. Meanwhile, the rapid growth of industries such as electric vehicles, new-energy batteries, and energy-storage devices is continuously increasing the application of metals like copper, aluminum, nickel, cobalt, and lithium.
　　In addition, aluminum consumption is expected to stabilize. In 2023, the downward trend in the real estate sector is likely to ease, and demand for aluminum—particularly for architectural aluminum profiles—from industries such as construction and home appliances will show some improvement. Coupled with rising demand for aluminum from emerging sectors such as new-energy vehicles and the photovoltaic industry, China’s overall aluminum demand is poised to stabilize.
　　Li Guangfei, Deputy General Manager of Chinalco International Trade Group Co., Ltd., stated that, supported by a series of national policies, aluminum processing enterprises are actively collaborating closely with end-users, research institutes, and other partners to build lightweight manufacturing bases and strive to expand the application of aluminum in the transportation sector. Meanwhile, over the past two years, the trend toward larger-sized components in the photovoltaic industry has become increasingly clear, driving growing demand for related supporting materials such as aluminum frames. This development has laid a solid foundation for maintaining steady growth in China’s aluminum consumption.
　　However, as downward pressure on the global economy intensifies, the impact on the nonferrous metals industry cannot be underestimated. “The stability of global nonferrous metal mine production and raw material supply will continue to be disrupted by risk events, and the stable operation of the domestic supply side will also face phased and structural challenges. As a result, fluctuations in processing fees and prices are likely to be quite significant.” Chen Xuesen advises that manufacturing enterprises should do a good job of expectation management, remain vigilant against sudden risks, make rational use of futures and spot instruments to hedge risks, and adjust their procurement and production plans appropriately and in a timely manner.
　　Li Guangfei suggested that enterprises should, on the one hand, actively enhance their supply-chain supporting capabilities and further strengthen their vertical integration along the value chain—from the resource end to the product end. On the other hand, they should tighten control over the purchasing and sales rhythms of raw materials and finished products, optimize inventory management, reduce energy consumption per unit of product through technological innovation, and improve cost competitiveness. Additionally, they should make full use of financial derivatives such as futures and options to hedge against the uncertainties and risks brought about by market fluctuations.
　　Promoting high-quality green development is one of the key tasks for the nonferrous metals industry. In 2022, guided by the principles of low-carbon leadership, source prevention, process control, end-of-pipe management, and green guidance, the nonferrous metals industry built a green and low-carbon standards system—comprising three sub-systems: “energy conservation and comprehensive utilization, green evaluation, and dual-carbon goals”—on top of its existing energy-saving and green standards framework, thereby driving high-quality green development.
　　To achieve the carbon peak target for the nonferrous metals industry at an early date, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the “Implementation Plan for Achieving Carbon Peak in the Nonferrous Metals Industry.” Chen Xuesen stated that in 2023, it is essential to scientifically grasp the path toward carbon peaking, focusing on key tasks including controlling production capacity, optimizing industrial structure, developing green and low-carbon technologies, optimizing energy structure, and establishing a green manufacturing system. Specifically, we must firmly advance five priority areas: strictly controlling the total capacity of smelting operations, vigorously promoting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, strengthening the research, development, and application of green and low-carbon technologies, accelerating the substitution of renewable energy sources, and building a green manufacturing system.
　　Looking at the development of colored metal enterprises, Li Guangfei believes that we should actively promote the transition to clean energy and increase the proportion of clean energy consumption. In the production process, we need to improve energy efficiency and raise the alloying ratio in the supporting industrial chain. Enterprises should proactively prepare for carbon emissions trading, including establishing foundational capabilities such as carbon asset management and talent development. (Reporter from Economic Daily)