Affected by downstream demand, the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline. According to data released by Shanghai Steel联, on February 24, quotations for some lithium-ion battery materials fell: battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped by 7,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 407,500 yuan per ton; industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell by 8,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 377,000 yuan per ton; and nickel beans dropped by 7,500 yuan per ton.
　　Looking back, lithium carbonate prices approached 600,000 yuan per ton in early November last year and have since continued to decline, with the cumulative drop so far exceeding 30%. Industry insiders believe that as lithium carbonate prices keep falling, changes are already becoming apparent in the new-energy vehicle industry chain, and the situation where downstream companies were essentially “working for” upstream suppliers is starting to shift.
　　“We previously predicted that when the price of lithium carbonate pulls back to a range between 300,000 yuan and 400,000 yuan per ton, it would likely mark a temporary equilibrium point for the correction,” said Qi Haishen, President of Beijing Te Yi Sunshine New Energy. He added that since the previous sharp rise in lithium resource prices had gone beyond the industry’s intrinsic value and included speculative elements, the decline in lithium carbonate prices is actually good news for the industry.
　　Currently, the short-term trend in lithium prices is influenced by both market conditions and industrial demand. According to an analysis by Business Society, from the supply side, lithium carbonate producers are maintaining steady production levels. As temperatures warm up, salt lake production has slightly increased, leading to an overall rise in capacity and supply. In contrast, on the demand side, the downstream and end markets have been recovering relatively slowly and falling short of expectations. As a result, the load rates of some production lines remain low. Moreover, with lithium carbonate prices continuing to decline, industry players are adopting a wait-and-see approach and are not making large-scale purchases; the market is largely driven by immediate, essential needs.
　　Analysts believe that the overall trend in lithium-ion battery prices will depend on the future performance of new-energy vehicle manufacturers.
　　Following last year’s rush to install new-energy vehicle components at the end of the year, the market has undergone a shift, and automakers have begun implementing “price cuts to maintain volume” measures.
　　According to reports, at the power battery end, CATL has recently been proactively rolling out a “lithium ore rebate” program to automakers in an effort to lower battery prices. For certain automakers, the company has introduced long-term cooperative agreements, under which the price of lithium carbonate for some power batteries will be settled at 200,000 yuan per ton.
　　If the report is accurate, this would mark the first time in recent years that a leading battery manufacturer has proactively cut prices to benefit its customers. Industry insiders believe that bottom-up pressure to offer price concessions may have already begun to take effect.
　　Qi Haishen believes that over the past few years, the price of lithium carbonate has surged—from tens of thousands of yuan per ton to hundreds of thousands of yuan per ton—a pace of increase that was far too rapid and has dampened the enthusiasm of downstream vehicle manufacturers and end-users to make purchases. However, this price surge is unsustainable. As end consumers stop absorbing such excessively high prices, it will force upstream players in the supply chain to adjust, further prompting a decline in lithium carbonate prices.
　　Although the price of lithium carbonate has recently fallen, both domestic and international companies remain highly enthusiastic about entering the lithium mining sector. On February 21, Xinjiang Zhit New Materials secured the exploration rights for a lithium mine in Xinjiang at a premium of nearly 400 times the original value, paying over 6 billion yuan. Behind Xinjiang Zhit New Materials is Ningde Times. Additionally, according to reports on February 22, Tesla is considering acquiring Sigma Lithium, a Brazilian lithium miner.
　　On this point, Xu Yongqi, chief analyst at Hua'an New Metal Materials, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that, from an industry development perspective, even if the price of lithium carbonate remains between 300,000 yuan/ton and 400,000 yuan/ton, it would still exceed industry expectations. Currently, the primary contradiction facing the industry remains the imbalance between supply and demand for lithium resources.
　　Multiple securities firms predict that the imbalance between supply and demand for lithium mining resources in 2023 will be rectified, and the overall outlook for the new-energy vehicle industry chain will also undergo a significant shift.
　　“Viewing fluctuations in resource prices rationally is a hallmark of industry maturity,” Xu Yongqi told reporters, adding that the industry has now entered a stage of intense competition driven by technological innovation.
　　Xu Yongqi stated that, at present, upstream lithium extraction technologies have reached a leading level in the development of spodumene and lepidolite. However, when it comes to lithium extraction from salt lakes—the world’s largest reserve of lithium resources—there remains a significant gap. Due to factors such as low ore grades and high investment costs, large-scale production is still constrained. Many companies are actively promoting innovation in salt-lake lithium extraction technologies—for example, Zijin Mining and Wanli Stone have adopted innovative manganese-titanium-based adsorption technology for lithium extraction; meanwhile, Jinyuan Shares has introduced an electrochemical deintercalation technology for direct lithium extraction from brine. Whoever manages to achieve breakthroughs in these new technologies first will reap substantial benefits from the development of salt-lake lithium extraction.