WGC: The gold supply and demand situation in the first quarter is complex.
Release time:
2023-07-10
Source:
Global Geological and Mineral Information System
According to Miningweekly, the World Gold Council (WGC), an industry body, in its first-quarter gold demand trends report, noted that the outlook for gold demand is complex: on the one hand, central banks continue to increase their purchases, and consumer demand in China is rebounding; on the other hand, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and demand from India remain weak.
Gold consumption in the first quarter (excluding over-the-counter, OTC volumes) was 1,081 tons, down 13% year-on-year.
Including over-the-counter (OTC) trading volume, the figure comes to 1,174 tons, representing a 1% year-on-year increase. This is because the recovery in OTC investments has offset contractions in certain sectors, aligning with investors’ positioning for the future market.
The report states that during this period, central bank demand grew considerably.
Official institutions remain enthusiastic and committed to purchasing gold, increasing their gold reserves by 228 tons in the first quarter.
The report states that investment in gold bars and gold coins totaled 302 tons, representing a 5% year-on-year increase, with significant variations across different regions.
The report found that, by contrast, although the net demand for ETFs decreased by only 29 tons, it still saw a significant year-on-year decline compared to the large inflows in the first quarter of 2022.
The report shows that global gold jewelry consumption in the first quarter was 478 tons, essentially unchanged from the previous quarter. Gold jewelry production exceeded consumption by 30 tons, as global inventories increased.
The report指出, affected by the economic environment, demand for gold in the high-tech sector has remained persistently weak. In the first quarter, gold demand in this sector reached 70 tons—the lowest quarterly consumption since the World Gold Council began collecting such data in 2000.
In the first quarter, mine-produced gold (2%) and recycled gold (5%) saw slight increases, resulting in a marginal rise in global gold supply to 1,174 tons for the quarter.
The report attributes the rise in gold recycling primarily to the increase in gold prices.
In the first quarter, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported an average gold price of $1,890 per ounce, representing a slight year-on-year increase.
This price has risen 10% compared to the previous quarter, nearly reaching the record level seen in the third quarter of 2020.
The report指出, in the first quarter following the pandemic, China's gold consumption made a strong rebound. The recovery of the domestic economy and rising incomes boosted domestic consumption, while rising gold prices sparked increased interest in investment.
The report shows that, due to falling domestic gold prices, India's gold consumption has significantly declined.
The report indicates that fluctuations in domestic gold prices in India have affected investment and gold jewelry consumption in the first quarter.
The report emphasizes that investment will shape this year’s market outlook. The WGC forecasts that demand for gold from investment will continue to grow steadily this year, while the outlook for gold use in manufacturing—particularly in jewelry and high-tech applications—remains more subdued.
Although lower than the 2022 level, future demand for gold purchases by central banks is expected to remain strong. The report suggests that both mine-produced gold and recycled gold output may see moderate growth.