On March 20, international gold prices reached a new all-time high. According to Wind data, the spot price of London gold touched $3,057.51 per ounce during trading hours, once again hitting a historic high. As of the time this report was written, the year-to-date increase in the spot price of London gold has reached approximately 15.9%.

International gold futures prices also hit a new high, with COMEX gold futures reaching $3,065.2 per ounce during trading on March 20, marking an increase of approximately 15.5% so far this year.

On the news front, in the early hours of March 20, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released its latest interest-rate decision, keeping the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady while signaling potential rate cuts later this year has, to some extent, provided upward momentum for gold prices.

Fan Rui, head of non-ferrous metals analysis at Guoyuan Futures, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that since March 11, gold has once again entered a phase of accelerated price increases, primarily driven by uncertainties in overseas markets and rising risk-aversion sentiment. Repeated fluctuations in several U.S. macroeconomic indicators, a sharp drop in U.S. stock markets at one point, and the intensification of trade conflicts led by the United States have all heightened market concerns about the U.S. economy, further eroding confidence in the U.S. dollar and thereby reinforcing the market’s “pursuit” of gold’s monetary attributes.

As Fan Rui pointed out, during the seven trading days from March 11 to March 19, the spot price of London gold closed higher on six trading days, with an overall increase of 5.48%.

Bai Xue, Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department at Orient Securities Credit Rating Co., Ltd., told a reporter from the Securities Daily that last week (March 10 to March 14), the U.S. once again threatened tariffs, further escalating the U.S.-EU trade war. Tariffs and geopolitical risks on the international stage continued to fuel risk-averse sentiment in the market, boosting demand for gold. In addition, inflation data released last week—both the U.S. February CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index)—showed a broad-based weakening trend, cooling inflation expectations and helping gold prices reach new record highs.

Where is the gold price—continuously hitting new highs—headed? Ding Zhenyu, a senior investment advisor at Shaanxi Jufeng Investment Information Co., Ltd., told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in recent years, central banks in many countries have accelerated the “de-dollarization” process to cope with geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, thereby enhancing gold’s appeal as a non-sovereign credit asset. Factors such as the restructuring of global supply chains and U.S. tariff policies are also fueling inflation expectations, further strengthening gold’s role as an inflation hedge. It is expected that international gold prices will continue to rise, potentially breaking through $3,200 per ounce in the medium term.

Bai Xue predicts that after gold prices broke through the key threshold of $3,000 per ounce, some investors may seek to take profits. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks are showing signs of a rebound from oversold levels, which could to some extent curb investors’ willingness to pour funds into gold. As a result, gold prices may face phased downward pressure in the short term. Before U.S. tariff policies are finalized, uncertainties in the economic and trade landscape will continue to intensify. Coupled with the normalization of geopolitical risks, the strong market demand for safe-haven assets will continue to provide robust support for gold prices. Looking at inflation data, U.S. inflation eased moderately in February, and the market generally believes that the current risk of economic downturn in the U.S. outweighs the risk of stagflation-driven upward pressure. This will further fuel the upward trend in gold prices. Overall, it is expected that gold prices will exhibit a pattern of high-level fluctuations this week (from March 17 to March 21).

Fan Rui believes that, in the short term, market expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates within the year could influence the performance of the U.S. dollar and, indirectly, provide some support for gold prices. Moreover, trade tensions stemming from the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on several trading partners continue to persist, and from the perspectives of both scope and duration, this further encourages markets to allocate more resources toward gold.