International gold prices have recently accelerated their upward trend. Both spot gold and COMEX gold have broken through the $3,100 mark this week, reaching new all-time highs. However, silver’s rally has been relatively hesitant.

International gold prices continue to hit new highs.

Driven by factors such as frequent geopolitical conflicts and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar system, gold market demand has surged over the past two years. Meanwhile, the U.S. government’s tariff wars have intensified global trade tensions, introducing uncertainty into the global economy and further boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal.

The central bank continues to increase its gold purchases, and investors are turning to gold futures, gold ETFs, paper gold, and gold bars to hedge against risks and enhance their asset value... After a strong performance in 2024, gold will undoubtedly remain the top choice among major asset classes in 2025.

On the other hand, in order to reduce acquisition costs, U.S. banks, investors, and traders have been actively shifting gold from exporting countries such as the United Kingdom and Switzerland to the United States. Following a 43% increase in January, gold inventories at the New York Mercantile Exchange surged again by 25% in February. Currently, gold inventories at the New York Mercantile Exchange have reached a record high of 43.3 million ounces—nearly double the inventory level at the end of 2024.

Goldman Sachs raises its gold price target to $3,300.

As gold prices hit yet another record high, investment bank Goldman Sachs has once again raised its target price for gold.

On March 26, Goldman Sachs released an analysis report raising its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,100 to $3,300, with the forecast range adjusted to between $3,250 and $3,520.

Goldman Sachs expects that major central banks in Asia are likely to continue rapidly purchasing gold over the next three to six years. Goldman Sachs has raised its assumption for central bank gold purchases from 50 tons per month to 70 tons per month. This revised assumption is significantly higher than the average of 17 tons per month prior to 2022, though it remains slightly below the level of 85 tons per month observed after 2022.

Since the Russian central bank’s assets were frozen in 2022, emerging-market central banks have increased their gold purchases by roughly fivefold. Goldman Sachs forecasts that this trend will continue over the next three years. Goldman Sachs points out that emerging-market central banks hold far lower shares of gold reserves compared to their developed-market counterparts, leaving ample room for further increases. For example, the People’s Bank of China holds about 8% of its reserves in gold, whereas countries such as the United States, Germany, France, and Italy hold around 70%, and the global average stands at approximately 20%. Goldman Sachs believes that 20% represents a reasonable medium-term target for large emerging-market central banks. “If the People’s Bank of China were to raise its gold reserve ratio to 20% and maintain its current monthly purchase rate of roughly 40 tons, it would take about three years to reach this target. If the target were raised to 30%, it would take roughly six years.”

Notably, regarding the approval of “10 insurance companies to pilot investment in gold,” Goldman Sachs believes that this move is more likely to provide support for gold prices rather than drive them higher. The total amount of assets these 10 insurance companies are authorized to invest in gold amounts to roughly 280 tons, and these funds have not yet entered the market. It appears they are waiting for gold prices to pull back before making purchases—a development that suggests there could be significant buying interest from this sector should gold prices experience a substantial decline.

“In the long term, as these funds flow into the market—likely after an international price correction—the Shanghai-London gold premium could widen, as rising local demand may run into constraints imposed by limited import quotas,” Goldman Sachs noted.

Can silver catch up and rebound?

Since hitting an all-time high in January of this year, gold prices have continued to push records to new highs.

Similar to gold, COMEX copper futures have recently experienced a strong rally. Traders have been frantically rushing to buy copper ahead of the U.S. imposition of additional tariffs on imported copper. Energy trader Mercuria estimates that around 500,000 tons of copper are currently en route to the U.S.—a figure far exceeding the usual monthly import volume of roughly 70,000 tons. This week, COMEX copper prices also surpassed their high from May of last year, reaching a new all-time high.

Silver’s financial attributes are weaker than gold’s but stronger than copper’s, while its industrial attributes are weaker than silver’s but stronger than gold’s. For a long time, silver’s price has remained between those of gold and copper. Now that both gold and copper prices have reached new highs, silver has yet to break through the consolidation range it has been stuck in since October of last year, leaving investors who have been betting on silver increasingly disappointed.

However, amid news that the U.S. may impose additional tariffs on imported copper ahead of schedule, copper prices have begun to pull back. This is because, once imported copper can no longer enter the U.S. before the tariffs take effect, traders will be forced to bear the losses. Moreover, given that the U.S. has already imported substantial quantities of copper, it may no longer face a copper shortage for an extended period going forward. This is not good news for copper prices and will, to some extent, curb the upward momentum of silver prices.