On April 16, at the CLNB2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo hosted by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, Tang Juxing, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and vice president of the China Geological Sciences Academy, stated that by 2030, copper prices will approach or even exceed 100,000 yuan per ton. As of April 17, the average spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai was 76,095 yuan per ton. According to Tang Juxing, the primary reason for the expected rise in copper prices is the substantial demand for copper as a raw material driven by the development of the new energy industry. At the same time, global copper reserves have entered a bottleneck phase in terms of discovery, and the declining trend in copper ore grades has led to rising development costs and increased operational difficulties, ultimately constraining supply.

Regarding copper ore supply, Tang Juxing stated that in recent years, only three major copper deposits have been discovered worldwide—namely, the copper deposit in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the copper deposit in Serbia, and a copper deposit in the Tibet region of China. “Basically, no large copper deposits have been found elsewhere, and the grade of these deposits is also quite low.”

With the launch of a new round of mineral exploration efforts across China, significant copper deposits have now been discovered in regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Heilongjiang Province. In Tibet, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, cumulative newly identified resources have exceeded 20 million tons, with estimated resource potential reaching as much as 150 million tons. At the Duobaoshan copper mine in Heilongjiang, deep exploration has added 3.65 million tons of copper resources. According to Tang Juxing, by 2035, Tibet will achieve a copper metal production capacity of over 1.2 million tons and generate an output value exceeding 150 billion yuan, thereby fundamentally reshaping the country’s copper resource landscape.

However, China’s domestic copper ore resources are also characterized by low grade and difficulty in development.

According to data provided by Chen Jinghe, Chairman of Zijin Mining, at the same event, the grade of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is 2.51%, whereas the grade of the Jilong copper mine in Tibet is only 0.2%.

The Zijin Mining-owned Jilong Copper Mine in Tibet is expected to reach an annual production capacity of 170,000 tons this year, making it China’s largest copper mine. At the same time, it is also the world’s largest copper mine in terms of mining and beneficiation scale, with the lowest ore grade and the highest elevation.

However, as of now, China’s domestic copper mine production remains relatively low, and the vast majority of its copper needs to be imported from abroad, with Chile and Peru being the main importing countries. According to Tang Juxing, in 2024, domestic copper mine production reached 2.1 million tons, secondary copper production totaled 3.3 million tons, and imports exceeded 14.5 million tons.

Tang Juxing stated that by 2040, as copper resources in the Tibet region are developed more rapidly, mine production is expected to increase to between 2.6 million and 3 million tons, with secondary production reaching approximately 6.5 million tons, and the external procurement rate declining to 50%.

Regarding copper demand, according to data provided by Tang Juxing, with the development of China’s new energy industry, domestic copper demand surged from 7.88 million tons in 2011 to around 15 million tons by 2024, with an annual growth rate of 6%. The value of copper product imports exceeded 600 billion yuan, making copper one of the three largest imported mineral products in China, alongside oil & gas and iron.

He gave an example, saying, “A new-energy vehicle requires more than 80 kilograms of copper, whereas a conventional gasoline-powered car needs less than 10 kilograms of copper.”

Chen Jinghe stated that copper is the most cost-effective conductor, which enables its widespread application in new energy sectors such as photovoltaic, wind power, nuclear power, and hydrogen energy. “The demand for copper is fundamentally linked to electricity demand, and by 2040, total demand is expected to exceed 40 million tons.”