Recently, the World Bank released its “Commodity Markets Outlook,” noting that commodity prices have generally declined. The report forecasts a roughly 12% drop in global commodity prices in 2025, with a further 5% decline in 2026.

The decline in energy prices is the primary driving force, particularly for oil. Affected by the dual pressures of slowing global economic growth and increasing supply, oil prices have fallen significantly. Brent crude oil is expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024. Meanwhile, as the growth of renewable energy drives a global shift in the power generation mix, demand for coal has weakened accordingly. At the same time, coal inventory levels remain relatively high. Under the combined influence of supply and demand, coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025. Although natural gas prices have risen in some markets, given the composition of the energy price index—where oil carries greater weight than gas—and considering that the increase in natural gas prices is mainly concentrated in the U.S. market and during winter periods, from a global perspective, this upward trend is not widespread. Instead, it exhibits distinct characteristics of being localized and short-term, thus failing to alter the overall downward trend in energy prices.

Prices of metal and mineral commodities continue to decline. According to the report, influenced by factors such as weak global manufacturing activity and ongoing global trade tensions, prices of metals and minerals are expected to trend downward. Specifically, copper prices are forecast to fall by 10% in 2025, reaching approximately USD 8,200 per ton; prices of base metals such as aluminum, zinc, and nickel are expected to drop by between 10% and 13%. A decline in copper prices typically signals a slowdown in industrial demand, and lower copper prices may also reduce mining companies' willingness to invest, potentially leading to future supply shortages. Although falling prices of metal and mineral commodities can help reduce costs for downstream manufacturers, they will not directly stimulate consumer spending.

The report indicates that agricultural commodity prices are generally on a downward trend. Affected by ample supply and slowing demand growth, prices of grains such as wheat, corn, and rice are expected to decline overall by 10.5% in 2025. Meanwhile, driven by factors including higher yields of leguminous crops and improved global oilseed and edible oil inventories, prices of oilseeds and edible oils are forecast to fall by between 3% and 6%. In addition, due to weak downstream demand and relatively high inventory levels, prices of agricultural raw materials such as cotton, rubber, and tobacco are expected to decline across the board by between 2% and 10% in 2025.

The decline in commodity prices has had varying economic impacts across different countries. For importing countries, the current trend helps to curb inflation and stabilize consumption. Lower energy and food prices contribute to a reduction in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which, particularly for advanced economies worldwide, helps sustain the downward trend in inflation that has been underway since 2022. The report forecasts that changes in energy prices in 2025 will directly reduce global inflation by approximately 0.35 percentage points. Moreover, as households cut back on spending on energy, transportation, and food, this shift creates room for other consumer demands to rise, thereby boosting the recovery of both the service sector and manufacturing industry.

For countries heavily reliant on exports, the current trend will act as a drag, particularly for resource-based economies—such as those that export large volumes of oil, gas, metals, and agricultural products—which will face significant shocks and come under pressure from declining fiscal revenues, currency depreciation, and slower economic growth. The report points out that the “terms of trade” for energy-exporting countries will deteriorate sharply, potentially triggering fiscal tightening. Given that most energy-exporting countries currently have weaker fiscal positions than during previous oil-price downturns and enjoy narrower policy space, falling oil prices will likely lead to widening budget deficits in these nations. The report also notes that while lower food prices are beneficial for some countries, the magnitude of the price decline is insufficient to significantly alleviate food insecurity. Moreover, declining global investment expectations and reduced capital expenditures in the commodity sector could further dampen investment appetite in areas such as mining and energy infrastructure.