Reflections on China’s Energy Issues (Part 1)
Release time:
2008-07-18
Source:
Abstract: This article highlights the critical importance of energy issues, pointing out that energy is a major constraint on China’s economic and social development, directly affecting both economic and national security. It analyzes the global energy landscape and emerging trends from the perspectives of resources, production, consumption, as well as their impacts on the environment and socio-economic development. Furthermore, it explores the opportunities and challenges facing China’s energy development. The strategic approach to China’s energy development is the central focus of this article. The article proposes taking a new path of energy development with Chinese characteristics, which primarily entails adhering to the principles of conservation and efficiency, diversified development, clean and environmentally friendly practices, technology-driven advancement, and international cooperation. The goal is to build an energy system characterized by high utilization efficiency, advanced technological levels, low pollution emissions, minimal ecological impact, and stable and secure supply and distribution. The article elaborates on long-term strategies prioritizing conservation, the efficient exploration and utilization of primary energy resources, and the development of advanced power systems, while also offering a forward-looking perspective on the future prospects of energy technologies. At the same time, it emphasizes that to effectively implement the energy development strategy, it is essential to further refine energy policies, improve institutional mechanisms, strengthen macroeconomic management, and better leverage the market’s fundamental role in resource allocation, thereby providing robust energy support for economic and social development.
Keywords: energy; energy development; energy security; energy strategy; energy policy
Energy is an essential material foundation for human survival and development, and it has also become a focal point of international political, economic, military, and diplomatic concerns today. China’s sustained and rapid economic and social development is inseparable from robust energy security. Against the backdrop of deepening economic globalization and the accelerated pace of China’s modernization, understanding energy development trends, choosing an appropriate energy development strategy, and adopting suitable policy measures have become critically important issues that demand careful consideration.
1 The Importance of Energy Issues
Humanity’s energy utilization has evolved from the wood-and-fuel era through the coal era to the oil-and-gas era. While the total amount of energy consumed has continued to grow, the structure of energy sources has also been undergoing constant transformation (see Figures 1 and 2). Each shift in the energy era has been accompanied by a massive leap in productive forces, profoundly driving the development of human economic and social systems. At the same time, as humanity’s consumption of energy—especially fossil fuels—has steadily increased, the constraints that energy imposes on economic and social development, as well as its impacts on resources and the environment, have become increasingly evident.
From the perspective of modern economic and social development, the importance of energy issues is primarily reflected in the following four aspects.
1.1 Energy is the foundation of modern economic and social development.
The development of modern economic and social systems is built upon a foundation of high-level material and spiritual civilizations. To achieve a high level of material civilization, we must see tremendous advances in social productivity—modernized agricultural, industrial, and transportation and logistics systems, as well as advanced infrastructure and service networks—all of which require energy. In modern society, the proportion of energy consumed for food, which sustains human life, has significantly declined relative to total energy consumption; instead, energy consumption for production, daily living, and transportation services has become the primary driver of energy demand. Looking at the development paths taken by developed countries, when a nation is in the early and middle stages of industrialization, its energy consumption typically experiences a period of rapid growth, with an energy consumption elasticity coefficient[2] generally exceeding 1. As a country enters the later stages of industrialization or the post-industrial era, its energy consumption shifts into a phase of slower growth, and the energy consumption elasticity coefficient usually falls below 1. Historical experience also shows that once a country or region reaches a certain per capita GDP level, energy consumption related to residents’ clothing, food, housing, transportation, and other daily needs will enter an upward phase, leading to a substantial increase in per capita energy consumption for living purposes. It can be said that without energy as a supporting pillar, there would be no modern society and no modern civilization.
1.2 Energy is a key constraint on economic and social development.
Since the 1950s, China’s energy industry has grown steadily from small to large. Particularly after the reform and opening-up policy was implemented, the country’s energy supply capacity has continuously strengthened, thereby fostering sustained and rapid economic development. However, during the course of economic development, the contradiction between insufficient energy supply has become strikingly prominent. Whenever the scale of fixed-asset investment expands and economic growth accelerates, coal, electricity, oil, and transportation often face tight conditions, becoming bottlenecks that constrain socio-economic development. By the end of the 1990s, as market-oriented reforms in the energy sector continued to advance and the energy industry made progress...
With the gradual opening up to the outside world and increased energy investment, coal and power generation capacities have risen significantly, and imports of oil and gas have grown substantially, greatly easing the constraints that energy poses on economic and social development. Since entering the 21st century, however, the energy supply-and-demand situation has undergone new changes. The pace of industrialization and urbanization has accelerated, and certain high-energy-consuming industries have expanded too rapidly, leading to an unprecedented surge in energy demand (see Figure 3). As a result, the constraints imposed by energy on economic and social development have begun to intensify once again. China is a populous developing country, and it still has a long way to go before achieving a modern society at a relatively high level. As the economy and society continue to develop and people’s living standards keep improving, energy demand will continue to rise, and the contradictions between supply and demand as well as resource and environmental constraints will persist for the long term.
1.3 Energy security is closely linked to economic security and national security.
The most critical aspect of energy security is oil security. The two global oil crises of the 1970s led to economic slowdowns in major developed countries and triggered global economic fluctuations. Since the beginning of this century, oil prices have continued to rise (see Figure 4). At the start of 2008, crude oil futures prices exceeded US$100 per barrel. This surge in oil prices has had a significant impact on the global economy, particularly on the economies of oil-importing countries; in some nations, the rise in oil prices even triggered social unrest. Historically, during their industrialization processes, developed countries have not only tapped into their own energy resources but have also relied heavily on international resources. To this day, many developed countries remain highly dependent on international oil and gas resources. In today’s era of deepening economic globalization, the global allocation of energy resources has become an inevitable trend. However, an unjust international political and economic order, as well as flawed energy market rules, continue to pose numerous obstacles for developing countries seeking to harness international resources. Moreover, certain regional conflicts and localized wars also have profound energy-related underpinnings. Due to domestic resource constraints and other factors, China’s efforts to ensure its energy supply—especially its oil and gas supplies—require it to tap into both international and domestic markets and utilize both domestic and foreign resources. Currently, China’s external dependence on oil has already approached 50%, and this figure could rise even further in the future. The stability of the international oil market will increasingly influence China’s energy security, economic security, and even national security.
Figure 4: Trend of International Oil Price Growth [3]
Fig. 4 Increasing trend of the oil price in the international market
1.4 The impact of energy consumption on the ecological environment is becoming increasingly prominent.
The development and utilization of energy resources have spurred global progress, yet they have also given rise to serious ecological and environmental challenges. The use of fossil fuels is the primary source of increasing greenhouse gases such as CO2. Scientific observations show that the concentration of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere has risen from 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) before the Industrial Revolution to the current level of 379 ppmv (see Figure 5). Meanwhile, the global average temperature has increased by 0.74°C over the past century (see Figure 6), with particularly noticeable warming over the past three decades. Overall, global warming has negative impacts on Earth’s natural ecosystems and the environment upon which humanity depends, and these impacts demand serious attention from the international community. In China, the energy structure has long been dominated by coal; the SO2, particulate matter, and CO2 emitted during coal production and consumption are major contributors to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. To effectively address energy issues, we must not only focus on balancing supply and demand but also pay close attention to the ecological and environmental challenges that arise as a result.
2 Domestic and International Energy Situation
2.1 Global Energy Overview and Development Trends
In recent years, global energy consumption has been steadily increasing, and oil prices have continued to rise, prompting growing concerns about the sustainability of the world’s energy supply. Currently, the global energy supply relies heavily on fossil fuels. Although the world’s remaining recoverable reserves of fossil fuels still offer a relatively long-term supply guarantee and have not yet imposed substantial constraints on energy supply, future energy supply-demand dynamics and market prices will be influenced primarily by a variety of factors, including advancements in energy extraction and utilization technologies, adjustments to the energy mix, environmental and climate change considerations, and the evolving international political and economic order.
(1) The world boasts abundant reserves of fossil fuels, yet the distribution of these resources among countries is highly uneven. As of the end of 2006, the world’s proven remaining recoverable coal reserves totaled 909.1 billion tons [4], which, at current production levels, could last for 147 years. In comparison to coal, the world’s conventional oil and natural gas resources are relatively limited; however, newly discovered reserves continue to grow steadily each year. Over the past two decades, the world’s reserve-to-production ratio (R/P ratio)—the ratio of remaining recoverable reserves to annual production—has remained largely unchanged, consistently hovering around 40 and 60 (see Figure 7). Moreover, the world’s unconventional oil and gas resources—those that currently cannot be developed on a large scale due to limitations in extraction technology and costs—such as heavy oil (here referring to crude oil with a density ranging from 0.920 to 1.000 g/cm³), oil sands [5], shale oil [6], and natural gas hydrates [7]—are extremely abundant and hold great potential for future development and utilization. However, the distribution of energy resources already discovered across the globe is strikingly uneven. Coal resources are predominantly concentrated in countries such as the United States, Russia, China, India, and Australia. Oil resources are found on every continent, but their concentrations are heavily clustered in the Middle East and a handful of other countries. The member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) account for 75.7% of the world’s total proven remaining recoverable oil reserves, with Middle Eastern nations alone holding more than 60% of this total. By country, the top 10 nations by recoverable reserves collectively account for 82.6% of the global total. Natural gas resources are primarily concentrated in the Middle East, Russia, and Central Asia; among them, Russia, Iran, and Qatar together hold 55.7% of the world’s total natural gas reserves.
(2) The energy structure is moving toward diversification, yet fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy consumption. In 2006, global primary energy consumption totaled 10.88 billion TOE (1 TOE = 1.4286 TCE), with oil accounting for 35.8%, ranking first; coal accounted for 28.4%, ranking second; and natural gas accounted for 23.7%, ranking third. Hydroelectric and nuclear energy followed, accounting for 6.3% and 5.8%, respectively. Among the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the share of coal consumption has been steadily declining, while the share of natural gas consumption has surpassed that of coal, placing it in second position. As the international community pays increasing attention to environmental issues and as energy technologies continue to advance, clean energy sources that can replace coal and oil are growing rapidly. Consequently, the share of coal and oil in total primary energy demand will further decline, while the shares of natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy sources will continue to rise. However, the development of nuclear energy, wind power, solar energy, and biomass energy—beyond being influenced by technological factors—is also constrained by economic considerations. Thus, the path toward large-scale substitution of fossil fuels by non-fossil energy sources remains long and challenging. It is projected that before 2030, fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal will still be the world’s mainstream energy sources.
(3) Energy consumption in developed countries remains at a high level, while energy demand in developing countries is accelerating. During the processes of industrialization and post-industrialization, developed countries have established energy systems characterized by high consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings. In 2006, energy consumption in DECD countries accounted for 51% of the world’s total consumption, with per capita energy consumption reaching 4.74 TOE. The country with the highest per capita energy consumption was the United States, at 7.84 TOE. China’s per capita energy consumption stood at 1.31 TOE, whereas per capita energy consumption in African countries was only 0.36 TOE (see Figure 8). Looking at the trend of energy consumption growth, developed countries have entered a period of slow growth; meanwhile, developing countries, striving to escape poverty and backwardness, are committed to accelerating their development, and their energy consumption growth is also picking up pace. According to statistics, from 1996 to 2006, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption in the 26 countries of Europe and the United States was 0.62%; during the same period, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption in developing countries was 4.36%. According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2006 to 2030, global energy demand will grow at an average annual rate of 1.2% to 1.6%, with 70% of this growth coming from developing countries (see Figure 9).
(4) Climate change is increasingly impacting energy development, and low-carbon and carbon-free energy sources have become new focal points. As our understanding of the interrelationship between greenhouse gas emissions—such as CO2, CH4, and N2O—and global climate change continues to deepen, calls for the international community to take concerted action to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions are growing louder. From the first World Climate Conference in 1979, which called for the protection of the climate system, to the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development, and then to the Kyoto Protocol, the international community has made unremitting efforts to address global climate change. Many countries, when adjusting their energy strategies and formulating energy policies, have incorporated considerations for climate change mitigation, with a particular focus on curbing fossil fuel consumption and promoting energy conservation and the use of clean energy sources. The issue of climate change has become a new constraint on global energy development and, following the global oil crisis, has emerged as a major driving force behind the promotion of energy efficiency and the development of alternative energy sources. Countries around the world are now prioritizing low-carbon and carbon-free energy sources—including nuclear power, hydropower, wind energy, solar energy, and biomass energy—as key areas for future development. In 2006, nuclear energy used in the form of electricity accounted for 5.8% of global primary energy consumption[11], while nuclear power represented 14.8% of global electricity consumption. Entering the new century, several countries have once again begun to place greater emphasis on nuclear power development, increasing its share in both electricity generation and primary energy consumption. Today, more than 50 countries worldwide have enacted laws, regulations, or action plans, setting forth clear goals and pathways for advancing renewable energy development. We can be confident that, as the international community’s awareness of the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions continues to deepen, the trend toward low-carbon and carbon-free energy technologies will only grow stronger.
(5) The politicization of international energy issues has become increasingly evident, and non-supply-and-demand factors are playing a growing role. Currently, global oil trade accounts for more than 70% of total energy trade. Since the 1970s, the world oil market has experienced several major fluctuations. Throughout this period, oil-exporting and oil-consuming countries, along with various international powers, have been engaged in complex geopolitical博弈. As a result, non-supply-and-demand factors have exerted an increasingly significant influence on international oil price volatility. Regions rich in oil and gas resources, such as the Middle East, have been affected by major international political, military, and economic events, leading to substantial restrictions and disruptions in normal oil and gas trade and investment activities. Meanwhile, the rapid development of global capital markets and the virtual economy has resulted in a dramatic increase in financial derivatives, drawing large volumes of speculative capital that further impact the oil market. These non-supply-and-demand factors pose obstacles for some developing countries seeking to safeguard their national interests, while also introducing greater uncertainty into international oil and gas resource development, pipeline network construction, market supply, and routine corporate mergers and acquisitions. In recent years, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate and rise steadily, influenced not only by changes in market supply and demand, the financialization of oil trading, and exchange-rate fluctuations[12], but also by geopolitical factors, major powers’ policies, public expectations, social opinion, and various unexpected events.
2.2 Current Status and Issues in China’s Energy Development
(1) China boasts a rich variety of energy resources, yet its per capita availability is relatively low. China possesses diverse energy resources, among which hydropower and coal are particularly abundant, ranking first and third respectively in the world in terms of reserves. However, high-quality fossil fuels are relatively scarce; currently, the proven remaining recoverable reserves of oil and natural gas rank only 13th and 17th globally, respectively. Due to its large population, per capita availability of all types of energy resources falls below the global average (see Figure 10). By resource type: The economically developable total capacity of hydropower resources is 402 million kilowatts, with an annual generating capacity of 1,750 billion kilowatt-hours. These resources are mainly concentrated in the southwestern region, where the degree of development remains relatively low, though the difficulty and cost of further development are increasing. Proven remaining recoverable coal reserves amount to 184.2 billion tons, mostly located in the arid, water-scarce, and centrally remote regions of central and western China, where overall mining conditions are unfavorable. Proven remaining recoverable reserves of oil stand at just 2.04 billion tons[13], with a low reserve-to-production ratio. Although there is potential for further increases in proven reserves, the growth in production capacity is limited. Proven remaining recoverable reserves of natural gas total 23,900 billion cubic meters, offering significant potential for further exploration and development, with the possibility of substantial production increases. However, the overall resource volume and mining conditions cannot yet match those of resource-rich countries such as Russia and Iran. Renewable energy resources like wind and solar power are abundant, but their degree of development and utilization largely depend on technological and economic factors.
Figure 10: Comparison of Per Capita Availability of China’s Major Resources with the World Average [14]
Fig. 10 Comparison of per capita possession of main resources in China and the average in the world
(2) Energy infrastructure continues to be strengthened, yet energy efficiency remains relatively low. Since the 1990s, China’s total primary energy production has more than doubled, reaching 2.37 billion tons of coal equivalent by 2007, making China the world’s second-largest energy producer. The electric power industry has achieved leapfrog development: by the end of 2007, installed generating capacity exceeded 700 million kilowatts. Advanced equipment such as 1-GW ultra-supercritical coal-fired generating units and 700-MW hydroelectric turbine-generator sets have been successfully localized. A number of large-scale, modern coal mines have been completed and put into operation, and new breakthroughs have been made in oil and gas exploration and production. Positive progress has been made in energy conservation and consumption reduction: during the last two decades of the 20th century, despite a doubling of energy consumption, China managed to quadruple its economic output, with an energy consumption elasticity coefficient of 0.43. However, it is also important to recognize that China’s energy utilization efficiency remains relatively low, and both energy production and use continue to be characterized by extensive practices. From 2003 to 2005, energy consumption per unit of GDP rose; since 2006, efforts to conserve energy and reduce emissions have been intensified, leading to a slight decline in energy consumption per unit of GDP. Yet, to achieve sustained reductions, further intensified efforts are still needed.
(3) Energy production has been growing rapidly, placing significant pressure on the ecological environment. Driven by rapidly increasing demand, China’s energy production has expanded swiftly, with coal production experiencing particularly rapid growth. Over the past six years, China’s annual raw coal output has increased by nearly 1.2 billion tons, reaching 2.54 billion tons in 2007—accounting for roughly 40% of global production. At the same time, the large-scale production and use of coal have given rise to a host of problems, including low resource recovery rates, severe waste, frequent safety accidents, high fatality rates, and substantial damage to surface ecosystems and groundwater systems. Moreover, emissions of SO2, smoke and dust (see Figure 11), NOx, and CO2 have also risen, making it increasingly challenging to manage and protect the ecological environment. As a developing country, China’s per capita CO2 emissions are lower than the global average; however, it still faces considerable pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (see Figures 12 and 13).
Fig. 13 CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in major countries
(4) Energy consumption is still dominated by coal, and the energy structure needs to be optimized. Since the reform and opening-up, especially since the 1990s, China’s energy structure has generally been moving toward higher quality (see Table 1). The share of coal in total energy consumption has declined from 76.2% in 1990 to 66.3% in 2002. However, in recent years, coal’s share in energy consumption has slightly increased, reaching 69.4% in 2006—a figure that is significantly higher than the average of around 21% in developed countries. China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal. In terms of primary energy consumption, China’s coal share is 41 percentage points higher than the global average, while its oil and gas share is 36 percentage points lower, and its hydropower and nuclear power shares are 5 percentage points lower. At present, the development and utilization of clean energy and renewable energy sources remain insufficient; wind energy, solar energy, and biomass energy are still in the early stages of development. Thus, the task of adjusting and improving the energy structure remains extremely challenging.
(5) Energy demand continues to rise, posing challenges to sustainable development. As China’s economy continues to grow rapidly and the processes of industrialization and urbanization accelerate, coupled with an upgrading and transformation of household consumption patterns, energy demand is steadily increasing. In the coming period, it will be difficult to significantly reduce the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption. At the same time, demand for oil and gas will grow faster than demand for coal, while domestic resource availability, constrained by natural conditions, will be hard pressed to increase rapidly. In 2006, China’s oil reserve-to-production ratio stood at only 11.1, far below the global average of 40.5 (see Figure 14). Consequently, the supply-demand imbalance—particularly in oil and gas—will become even more pronounced. Therefore, only by stepping up energy conservation efforts from now on, accelerating the pace of industrial restructuring, and rationally guiding consumer behavior, can we gradually bring down the growth rate of energy demand in the future and achieve low or even zero growth in fossil fuel demand.
Fig. 14 Comparison of the reserve-to-production ratio of fossil fuel energy resources between China and the world in 2006
3 Strategic Approaches to Energy Development
The coming decades represent a critical period for China’s comprehensive economic and social development and the realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, making energy development an undertaking of paramount importance. In the course of fully building a moderately prosperous society, to meet the ever-growing energy consumption needs of over 1.4 billion people, China will build the world’s largest energy consumption and supply system within the next two to three decades. To this end, there is an urgent need to forge a new path of energy development with Chinese characteristics—thus achieving the strategic goals of modernization with relatively low costs in terms of energy resources and environmental impact. Given the enormous scale of the energy system and the long adjustment cycles involved, it often takes several decades to update an entire generation of energy technologies and fundamental equipment. This underscores the necessity of adopting a long-term strategic perspective in energy development and seeking the optimal or near-optimal development path.
3.1 Strategic Direction for Energy Development
When considering China’s energy development strategy, it is essential to adopt a longer-term perspective and think more broadly. We must place the energy strategy in a prominent position within the nation’s overall development strategy, clearly recognize the trends in energy development, and timely refine the goals, principles, and tasks of our energy strategy. To follow a new path of energy development with Chinese characteristics, we should adhere to the principles of conservation and efficiency, diversified development, clean and environmentally friendly practices, technology-driven advancement, and international cooperation. We must strive to build an energy production, distribution, and consumption system that features high utilization efficiency, advanced technological levels, low pollution emissions, minimal impact on the ecological environment, and stable and secure supply.
(1) Conservation and efficiency. Saving resources is a fundamental national policy of China. Our energy strategy should, over the long term, simultaneously emphasize both conservation and development, placing conservation first. We must prioritize energy conservation, forge a development model and consumption pattern that are resource-efficient, enhance the universal accessibility of energy services, and strike a reasonable balance between supply and demand. We should promote ecological civilization and a culture of conservation, popularize knowledge about energy conservation, and disseminate technological achievements. We must significantly improve the efficiency of our energy systems and swiftly bring the energy efficiency of key energy-consuming industries up to internationally advanced levels. Moreover, we must continuously enhance overall energy efficiency, using the smallest possible amount of energy resources to support the greatest possible economic and social development.
(2) Diversified development. Only by fully harnessing all energy resources that can be scaled up can we optimize the energy structure and meet future energy demands. Developed countries have already achieved high-quality utilization of fossil fuels and are now vigorously developing low-carbon energy sources, moving toward an even higher level of energy quality. China’s energy sector also needs to follow a path of diversified development, accelerate the adjustment of its energy mix, increase oil supply, and significantly raise the share of natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy in both energy production and consumption. We should strive to ensure that new energy supplies primarily consist of high-quality, low-carbon or carbon-free energy sources such as efficient energy, clean energy, new energy, and renewable energy.
(3) Clean and environmentally friendly. Addressing pollution, protecting the environment, and alleviating ecological pressures are crucial prerequisites for energy development. Under the new circumstances, energy strategies should also take into account effectively addressing the challenges posed by global climate change. To properly tackle the environmental issues arising from energy use, we need to adopt a multifaceted approach that includes increasing the share of clean energy, pursuing environmentally friendly energy development, promoting efficient and clean coal utilization, and advancing clean energy consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings. This will help minimize pollution emissions and ecological damage throughout the energy production and consumption processes, striking a balance between energy development and utilization on the one hand and ecological conservation on the other.
(4) Technology must take the lead. Energy development requires technology to lead the way. Only through continuous technological innovation can we continually improve energy efficiency, develop clean energy sources, achieve sustainable energy development, and support the modernization process. Looking ahead, we need to adopt advanced energy technologies as much as possible, proactively plan for R&D in energy technologies, and build up a reserve of energy-related technologies. Worldwide, energy production and conversion technologies are constantly innovating, with a clear trend toward larger-scale and more standardized equipment. The energy industry is capital-intensive and highly concentrated. China’s energy industry also needs to pursue a path of intensive development, enhance its capacity for scientific and technological innovation, and strengthen its international competitiveness.
(5) International Cooperation. Solving China’s energy challenges is of great significance to the world. By strengthening international energy cooperation, we can promote exchanges in energy technology and economics and broaden channels for opening up the energy sector to the outside world. Through enterprises “going global,” we can expand foreign investment, develop energy resources, and enhance our capacity to supply oil and natural gas. By engaging in international energy exchanges, we can strengthen strategic and policy dialogue and coordination, thereby continuously improving the global energy security framework. This not only helps increase China’s energy supply but also contributes to enhancing the global energy supply.
3.2 Long-term Strategy Prioritizing Energy Conservation
3.2.1 Prioritizing energy conservation is consistent with China’s basic national conditions. Currently, China’s per capita energy consumption is relatively low, and as the economy and society continue to develop, this consumption will likely increase further, leading to a continued rise in total energy use. However, China cannot simply replicate the traditional development model adopted by developed countries—relying on massive consumption of global resources and maintaining high levels of energy consumption. Instead, China must strive to explore new paths of development, firmly pursue a strategy of prioritizing energy conservation, and achieve industrialization, urbanization, and modernization through energy-efficient development.
3.2.2 Energy conservation is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a balance between energy supply and demand. Prioritizing energy conservation is an essential precondition for China to attain future energy supply-demand equilibrium. By strengthening energy conservation and improving energy-use efficiency, we can effectively slow down the rapid growth of energy demand, keep China’s total energy consumption within the bounds set by resource and environmental constraints, and enable our economy and society to achieve development through high efficiency and low consumption.
3.2.3 Energy conservation is a concrete manifestation of modern civilization. Diligence and frugality are time-honored virtues of the Chinese nation. Cherishing resources and protecting the environment are important hallmarks of modern civilization. We should guide the entire society to adopt a resource-conserving consumption mindset, establish rational consumption patterns, encourage responsible and moderate consumption, build efficient and energy-saving public infrastructure, refine the institutional framework and mechanisms for allocating resources to promote energy conservation, and genuinely integrate energy and resource conservation as well as improved energy efficiency into every sector and stage of economic and social development.
3.2.4 Improving energy efficiency in key areas is an important pathway to prioritizing energy conservation. We should minimize unreasonable energy demands as much as possible and make more efficient use of energy, delivering more and better energy services with fewer resource inputs. Industry, transportation, and buildings are the key sectors for energy conservation.
(1) Industrial energy conservation. Energy consumption by industry accounts for a large share of China’s total energy consumption, leaving enormous potential for savings that can be fully tapped. During the industrialization process, we should leverage our late-mover advantages and widely adopt advanced processes and technologies to bring industrial energy consumption up to world-leading levels. Today, technological progress is accelerating, with new processes and equipment emerging continuously. As a result, improving energy efficiency has shifted from merely upgrading individual pieces of equipment to optimizing entire systems and achieving overall efficiency gains. Currently, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel at leading global steel companies stands at only 630 kg of standard coal; in the future, this figure could even drop below 570 kg of standard coal. For large-scale, advanced dry-process cement rotary kilns, the specific energy consumption per ton of cement is currently just 96 kg of standard coal, and it could further decline to below 86 kg of standard coal in the future.
(2) Energy conservation in transportation. In industrialized countries, energy consumption for transportation accounts for 30% to 40% of total energy consumption. Although China’s share of transportation energy consumption is currently relatively low, as cars become increasingly common in households, transportation energy use is rising rapidly and must be given serious attention. Public transportation systems can provide convenient and energy-efficient travel services for the general public, helping to reduce traffic congestion and improve environmental quality. For example, in Tokyo, Japan, public transportation accounts for 80% of the city’s passenger transport volume, with rail transit alone accounting for 70% of that figure. Improving the energy efficiency and environmental friendliness of transportation systems and vehicles has become an international trend. Currently produced hybrid electric vehicles, for instance, have fuel consumption rates below 3–3.5 liters per 100 kilometers—representing a 50%–70% reduction compared to the average fuel consumption of conventional gasoline-powered cars—and still hold potential for further reductions. Some countries are developing pure electric vehicles capable of traveling 500 kilometers on a single charge, and fuel cell vehicles that achieve zero carbon emissions at the end-use stage by harnessing hydrogen energy are also beginning to be demonstrated. As China advances in industrialization and urbanization, it should prioritize fuel efficiency and environmental protection as key objectives in the development of its automotive industry, gradually bringing its vehicle energy efficiency levels up to world-leading standards. At the same time, China should vigorously develop high-speed railways and intercity rail transit systems, significantly enhancing the overall efficiency of its transportation network, reducing energy consumption, and minimizing pollution.
(3) Building energy efficiency. Energy consumption in buildings encompasses heating, cooling and air conditioning, ventilation, lighting, hot water supply, elevators, office and household appliances, and other related areas. In industrialized countries, building energy use accounts for more than 30% of total energy consumption. China is currently undergoing a period of rapid development in the construction industry, with newly constructed floor space reaching approximately 2 billion square meters each year—the world’s largest construction market—and energy consumption for buildings is steadily increasing. To promote building energy efficiency, government office buildings and public facilities should take the lead, while also guiding residents and commercial buildings toward energy-saving practices. Actively promoting and applying building energy-saving technologies—including high-efficiency insulation materials, low-emissivity glass, highly efficient heating and air-conditioning systems, solar water heaters, water- or ground-source and air-source heat pumps, energy-efficient lighting, and building-intelligent systems—can significantly reduce building energy demand, enabling newly constructed buildings to achieve energy savings of 50% to 65%. Ultra-low-energy buildings can even save up to 90% of energy. In the future, it may be possible to achieve low-carbon or even zero-carbon emissions for new buildings. Comprehensive technological upgrades can also be carried out on centralized heating systems, improving end-user regulation and pipeline network management, enhancing the efficiency of heat sources, and raising the overall efficiency of centralized heating systems from the current level of less than 55% to around 85% [6]. Furthermore, strengthening building energy efficiency standards, raising the level of energy-efficient building design, and adopting energy-saving building materials and equipment will continuously improve the operational efficiency of building energy systems. In this way, while improving people’s living and residential conditions, we can effectively slow down the growth rate of building energy demand.
3.3 Efficient Development and Utilization of Primary Energy
China has a massive total energy demand, and only by continuously enhancing its energy supply capacity can we ensure robust energy support for economic and social development. Only through the full utilization of diverse energy resources can we meet both the overall quantity and variety of energy needs. Looking ahead, coal will remain a crucial component of primary energy sources, though its share will decline somewhat. Meanwhile, the shares of petroleum, natural gas, nuclear energy, as well as renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind power, and solar power, will increase, gradually shaping a diversified and high-quality energy structure.
3.3.1 Coal is China’s most important energy source, accounting for a large share of both production and consumption, and it is difficult to replace. Achieving safe, efficient, clean, environmentally friendly, and sustainable development of coal is of great significance. In developing the coal industry, we must adhere to the principle of safe production as a prerequisite, rely on scientific and technological progress, and strengthen management, so that coal production can soon reach world-class advanced levels. To realize sustainable coal mining and modernize the coal industry, we need to build a number of large-scale coal bases, major coal enterprises, and modern mines that feature leading-edge technology, robust safety guarantees, mechanized mining operations, and high production efficiency. Moreover, we must integrate ecological and environmental protection into every stage of coal resource development, rationally determining the scale of coal mining based on the specific ecological and environmental conditions of different regions. We should also promote a circular economy, comprehensively manage and utilize coal gangue, mine water, and fly ash, restore and rehabilitate the ecological environment of mines whose resources have been depleted, and effectively protect the ecological environment of all mining areas and their surrounding regions.
Table 2: Comparison of Techno-Economic Indicators Among Major Coal-Producing Countries
The development of coal also requires addressing the issue of efficient and clean utilization. It is not only necessary to improve energy conversion efficiency but also to tackle the challenges of controlling and reducing emissions such as SO2 and NOx. While advancing clean coal technologies—including circulating fluidized-bed combustion and large-scale coal gasification—and enhancing both direct and indirect coal liquefaction technologies, we must accelerate research and development into next-generation clean coal technologies like coal multi-product systems. By adopting coal multi-product systems (see Figure 15), with coal gasification serving as the core process, it becomes possible to simultaneously produce electricity, heat, steam, liquid fuels, and chemical products. At the same time, these systems can achieve near-zero emissions of SO2, NOx, particulate matter, trace elements, and organic compounds. Moreover, capturing CO2 from flue gases is relatively easier when using coal multi-product systems compared to direct coal combustion, making this approach a crucial pathway for future greenhouse gas reduction. Compared to producing electricity, liquid fuels, and chemical products separately, coal multi-product systems can boost fuel utilization efficiency by 10% to 20% and reduce the capital investment per unit of product. The United States, Japan, and several European countries have already identified coal multi-product systems as a new frontier in clean coal technology and have formulated specific R&D plans accordingly. As a major coal-producing country, China stands to gain significant benefits from developing and deploying multi-product systems.