—— Cui Rongguo from the Information Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources: Outlook and Analysis of the Global Mining Industry Situation

At 2016 At the China Prospecting Annual Conference, Cui Rongguo from the Information Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources delivered a systematic analysis and forecast of the global mining industry’s current situation and future development trends. He stated that, throughout historical and socio-economic development, the mining industry has roughly gone through an initial stage of development (mining... 0.0 ), the predatory development stage (mining) 1.0 ), win-win development stage (mining) 2.0 ). Currently, the mining industry will enter 2.0 The essence of the times is... “ Comprehensive utilization ” , its consensus is “ Win-win cooperation ”。

The future 5~10 This year represents the best opportunity for our country to leverage the international market and strengthen its capabilities in mining development.

The Impact of the Economic Situation on the Mining Industry

At the meeting, Cui Rongguo used data charts to illustrate the global economic situation. 2009–2010 Around the turn of the year, dramatic fluctuations occurred, signaling that these developments directly triggered subsequent shocks in the mining economy and continue to influence the global mining landscape to this day.

He stated that, overall, the mining industry is currently in a downturn. Budgets for exploration of non-fuel solid minerals have declined for two consecutive years. 2014 Year for 114 hundreds of millions of dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 25% The primary reasons for the budget decline include the fragility and instability of the global economic recovery, heightened investor anxiety, uncertain prospects for demand for key mineral products, and persistently falling prices. However, viewed globally, investment in oil and gas exploration and development is generally on a steady upward trend.

And specifically to 2016 In the first quarter of the year, the global mining industry experienced poor overall performance, influenced by factors such as structural adjustments in the global economy and shifts in the geopolitical landscape. This marked a continuation of the downward trend that has persisted over the past three years, notably characterized by fewer initial resource discoveries compared to the same period last year and increased financing difficulties for small- and medium-sized mining companies. At the same time, the entire industry is grappling with numerous challenges, including declining investment in mining development, falling mineral prices, reduced profits, declining demand, and rising costs.

He predicts that, 2016 This year, the global mining industry will remain sluggish, and the outlook is worrying.

Negative performance in mining development

And in what specific ways do these disadvantages manifest themselves?

Cui Rongguo believes that, judging from the sources of funding for geological exploration investments, China’s mineral resource situation has entered a period of profound adjustment, the most direct manifestation of which is the decline in geological exploration spending. According to statistical data, whether the funding for geological exploration comes from private capital or fiscal allocations, since the emergence of... 2012 Annual investment exceeds 1200 After peaking at hundreds of millions of yuan, both have continued to decline this year. Data shows that... 2015 Annual non-oil and gas exploration investment is approximately 328 100 million yuan, down year-on-year 19%。

From the perspective of the mining industry, it is in a state of contraction. 2015 Year, nationwide fixed-asset investment increased year-on-year. 10.0% , fall back 5.7% ; this year 1 ~ 4 Month-on-month growth 10.5% 。2015 In the year, fixed-asset investment in the mining industry declined year-on-year. 8.8% , fall back 9.5% , for 13 The lowest level since the year, with profits down year-on-year. 23% ; this year 1 ~ 4 In the month, fixed-asset investment in the mining industry declined year-on-year. 15.3% ; It has now entered the adjustment phase, slightly below. GDP The growth rate and the situation are relatively reasonable.

From the perspective of mineral product trade, trade volumes have shrunk significantly. 2016 Year 1 ~ 2 In the month, the total value of China's mineral product trade was 1116.50 hundreds of millions of dollars, down year-on-year 25.1% (The country's total import and export volume declined year-on-year.) 17.4 %; the import value is 653.54 hundreds of millions of dollars, down year-on-year 25.0% (The country's total merchandise imports declined year-on-year.) 16.7 %; the export value is 462.96 hundreds of millions of dollars, down year-on-year 25.1% (The country's total merchandise exports declined year-on-year.) 17.8 %).

As for coal, 2015 Annual coal import volume is 2.04 Hundred million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease. 29.9% This year 1 ~ 4 Month, export 330 Ten thousand tons, growth 161.4% ; import 6725 Ten thousand tons, down 2.9% 。

As for oil, 2015 Year, imported oil 3.65 100 million tons (including crude oil) 3.36 100 million tons, up year-on-year 8.8% ), year-on-year growth 8.0% , the degree of external dependence is 60.3% 。1 ~ 4 Month, China's oil import volume 1.34 100 million tons (including crude oil) 1.24 100 million tons, up year-on-year 11.8% ), year-on-year growth 10.7% Oil export volume 1081 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 34.2% Refined oil exports surged. China’s net petroleum imports amounted to... 1.1 100 million tons.

As for iron ore, import volumes have declined significantly. 2015 Annual iron ore imports 9.53 100 million tons, up year-on-year 2.2% , degree of external dependence