Since the beginning of this year, capacity reduction and environmental production restrictions have significantly impacted the domestic nonferrous metals market. 14 Day, in China Merchants Futures 2018 In the annual investment strategy’s non-ferrous metals session, market participants summarized and provided a outlook on the trends of non-ferrous metals.

　　Sun Lei, a senior analyst at State Power Investment Corporation, believes that this year’s aluminum market has been marked by a tug-of-war between policy expectations and actual conditions, with environmental protection-related production restrictions remaining a dominant theme throughout the year. Overall, 2017 Annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity has shown a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, while aluminum consumption has initially strengthened and subsequently weakened. Throughout the year, supply has significantly exceeded demand, and inventory levels remain high.

　　For 2018 Regarding aluminum demand for the year, she noted that, due to weaker-than-expected investment in areas such as power grids, the growth rate of aluminum demand may show a trend of slowing down. However, next year’s downstream operating rates could be better than this year’s, and emerging consumption sectors hold promising prospects.

　　Currently, aluminum consumption is strong externally but weak domestically, and the demand gap in overseas aluminum markets still persists. Sun Lei is relatively optimistic about China's aluminum exports next year. She believes that, against the backdrop of overall macroeconomic stability and a slowdown in growth rates of key downstream consumer sectors, it is expected that... 2018 Domestic demand grew year-on-year. 6.2% , exports increased year-on-year. 3.1% Total demand growth 5.9% To 3766 10,000 tons, a slowdown compared to this year. 1.8 percentage point.

　　On the supply side, 2018 The outlook for new aluminum supply is expected to slow down. Given the low likelihood of a clear policy shift, she believes that resuming production next year will remain challenging.

　　She expects. 2018 The domestic aluminum market maintained overall supply-demand balance this year, with a supply deficit for the entire year. 20 Tens of thousands of tons, with supply expected to be relatively tight in the second quarter. Next year, electrolytic aluminum prices will primarily fluctuate within a cost range. Overall, costs are trending downward, and the main price range will be: 14,000–15,600 Yuan / ton. The annual centralized operating range for electrolytic aluminum prices may be: 13,800–16,200 Yuan / Ton, the likelihood of a price increase is greater.

　　Regarding this year’s nickel market situation, Fan Runze, Chief Analyst at Antaike Nickel, stated that, on the supply side, global nickel ore production growth accelerated in the first three quarters of this year. 6.9% Among them, the output of nickel sulfide ore decreased year-on-year, while the nickel production of countries producing laterite ore increased significantly year-on-year. Global primary nickel production rose year-on-year. 5.1% China's native nickel production has remained stable with steady growth. 2017 China's production of primary nickel is expected to be... 63 Ten thousand tons, of which NPI Production 41 Ten thousand tons—electrolytic nickel production has declined. It is expected that... 2020 In recent years, China's native nickel production has shown a relatively stable trend with a slight increase.

　　Meanwhile, 2017 This year is also a pivotal one for the commissioning of newly built nickel production capacity in Indonesia. Once Indonesia’s planned nickel-iron capacity is fully realized, it will surpass China to become the world’s largest producer of nickel-iron. Indonesia is expected to... NPI Production will be from 2016 of the year 9 From ten thousand tons to 2017 of the year 19 Around 10,000 tons.

　　The reporter learned that this year, China's nickel sulfate production capacity... 44 Ten thousand tons, with a production volume of 30 Over 10,000 tons, year-on-year growth 50%，2018 There will be even more new construction and expansion projects this year, and nickel sulfate production is expected to increase significantly in the future.

　　On the consumer side, global nickel consumption this year increased year-on-year. 5.9% primarily concentrated in Asia. In the key consumer sector of stainless steel, China’s stainless steel production has maintained growth this year, and favorable export conditions have helped reduce inventories. As of... 12 At the beginning of the month, social inventories of stainless steel had already fallen to normal levels. In the battery sector, nickel consumption holds the greatest potential. 2017 Annual nickel consumption is 4.9 Ten thousand tons, with primary nickel accounting for... 80% , expected by 2020 This year, China's nickel consumption in the ternary materials industry has increased. 13.5 Ten thousand tons.

　　Regarding the future global supply and demand outlook for nickel, Fan Runze stated that, as Indonesia... NPI Production release, China NPI With production rebounding, future demand in the stainless steel industry can be met; however, nickel sulfate will encroach on part of the market share previously held by pure nickel.

　　He expects that next year’s nickel price will be... 11,000–13,500 U.S. dollar / ton-run. Against the backdrop of a noticeable slowdown in consumption growth in the stainless steel sector, if... 2020–2025 Around the turn of the year, the amount of nickel used in electric vehicle batteries is expected to rise to annually, as the market anticipates. 40 With the tonnage reaching 10,000 tons, nickel prices are set for a breakthrough increase.