Top 10 Investment Theme Trends in Global Capital Markets for 2017
Release time:
2017-02-10
Source:
Huxing Finance, December 27, 2016
A U.S. investment advisory firm Mott Capital Management A ten-point trend outlook for next year’s investment market has recently been published.
Here, the editor of Tiger Finance has compiled its top ten thematic predictions, hoping to provide investors with some inspiration.
1 ) S&P 500 The index is expected to exceed. 2500 Point. The underlying logic here is that even if the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest-rate hikes exceeds market expectations, the current financial environment still remains characterized by excessive monetary supply. Europe and Japan appear set to continue their existing loose monetary policies, meaning global liquidity will remain ample. Finally, investors in the European and Japanese markets may be compelled to turn their attention to the U.S. market in search of investment returns.
2 ) The Federal Reserve in 2017 Interest rates may be raised only once this year. 12 After the monthly interest rate hike, we believe that... 2017 Year 9 The Fed won't raise interest rates again before next month. Although the U.S. economy has shown some improvement, it’s still growing slowly. Moreover, Yellen could become Trump’s... “ Revitalization Plan ” The biggest obstacle is that Yellen has consistently emphasized maintaining the Fed’s independence. Therefore, during Yellen’s tenure, Trump couldn’t interfere with the Fed’s policies. Thus, Yellen will only decide whether to continue raising interest rates once she sees exactly how Trump’s policies are impacting the economy.
3 ) 10 The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a one-year maturity will rise to 3% the historical level. Yes, this will be 2017 The level of annual government bond yields. As recently as this past summer, the bond market had already entered a prolonged bearish trend, and currently there are still no factors that could halt its continued upward trajectory. The U.S. may be entering a period of accelerating inflation (inflation being the ultimate end of the bond bull market), coupled with the fact that the U.S. ... GDP Growth is returning to rapid expansion, 10 The yield on 10-year government bonds could be pushed to unprecedented levels.
4 ) 2017 At some point this year, the euro may break parity with the U.S. dollar. The euro. / The U.S. dollar has been in... in recent months. 1.05–1.15 It has been oscillating within a range, while the outcome of the U.S. election is sufficient to prompt the euro to break this stalemate. 2017 Year-on-year decline to 1:1 and even below. Europe’s negative interest rate policy and Quantitative easing Policies are beginning to diverge from the U.S. monetary tightening policy, and coupled with rising U.S. Treasury yields, this will continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar while weakening the euro. Another reason for the potential further weakening of the euro is market concern that Trump’s victory signals a growing popularity of far-right anti-EU parties in the Eurozone. The gradual erosion of stability in the Eurozone, as well as disruptions to Europe’s trade and political relationships, could undermine investor confidence. 2017 Year /2018 confidence for the year. Moreover, with far-right, anti-authoritarian parties winning in Europe, they are unlikely to increase government spending; therefore, the euro won't receive the same boost from the U.S. dollar as the dollar did following Trump's victory.
5 ) The yen-to-dollar exchange rate could rise to 130 The yen and the euro are now in the same boat. In recent years, the Bank of Japan has implemented the most aggressive monetary stimulus, and with the U.S. yield curve set to steepen further, the yen will face even greater depreciation.
6 ) As the yen weakens, the Japanese stock market will become... 2017 One of the best-performing stock markets of the year. Japanese exporters and multinational corporations will benefit from the yen’s depreciation, enhancing the competitiveness of their products in global markets and boosting sales. As a result, the Japanese stock market is... 2017 There will be a significant increase this year.
7 ) Gold will fall to 1000 Below the U.S. dollar. Given the strong U.S. dollar as the underlying investment driver, gold is likely to remain under pressure and could eventually fall to... 1000 U.S. dollar / Ounces. Given the inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar as well as the improving U.S. economy, investors may sell off gold and shift their funds into assets with higher returns.
8 The financial sector will be the best-performing stock market sector next year. One reason is that rising interest rates will boost banks’ revenues. Additionally, as U.S. regulations on this industry begin to ease gradually, banks will face fewer obstacles.
9 Biotech stocks may see a rebound next year. As investors begin to recognize that Trump intends to address the issue of drug prices by increasing competition in the industry, their concerns about drug prices in this sector will diminish.
10 ) The public utilities and consumer sectors are likely to become... 2017 The worst-performing sectors of the year. Rising interest rates will put these stocks under pressure throughout the year. These sector groups are inherently defensive and offer relatively high dividends. However, as interest rates rise, investors may sell off these stocks with slow earnings growth and shift their focus to sectors that could deliver higher returns.