Abstract: As of Beijing time 12 day 18 time 30 Points, LME Nickel prices rise. 1 67% Per ton 18961 The U.S. dollar has seen a cumulative gain of up to [amount] so far this year. 36%。

Recently, there have been rumors that Indonesia, one of the world’s largest nickel suppliers, may ease the measures it has already implemented. 7 A six-month ban on nickel ore exports. According to Reuters. , Indonesia's Chief Economic Minister Chairul Tanjung11 Indonesia explicitly denied this, stating that the country has no plans to lift or ease its ban on exports of nickel ore and bauxite. Thanks to this measure, Indonesia has already attracted billions of dollars in planned investments for the construction of smelters.

　　Industry insiders pointed out that, as Indonesia’s ban remains unchanged, its supply to overseas markets is unlikely to increase. As a result, nickel—already among the top performers in terms of price gains this year among base metals—could see further price hikes. As of Beijing time... 12 day 18 time 30 Points, LME Nickel prices rise. 1.67% Per ton 18961 The U.S. dollar has seen a cumulative gain of up to [amount] so far this year. 36%。

　　The nickel export ban remains unchanged.

　　Last month, the Indonesian government allowed several companies, including Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., to resume exporting certain processed ores such as copper concentrates. This news has sparked speculation across various sectors that Indonesia may soon ease restrictions on nickel ore exports. However, Chairul Tanjung It is emphasized that this regulation does not apply to the export of unprocessed nickel ore and bauxite. “ The situation with nickel is unique, because the added value of nickel ore after smelting is far higher than that of copper. ”。

　　Before this year, Indonesia was one of the world’s largest exporters of nickel ore and also a major exporter of bauxite. This year, Indonesia... 1 The government issued a ban on ore exports, prohibiting the export of all unprocessed raw ores and imposing restrictions on exports of refined ores. The purpose of this measure is to compel mining companies that wish to access Indonesia’s mineral resources to invest in and build smelters within Indonesia itself.

　　Analysts point out that the Indonesian government’s move is aimed, first, at scaling up domestic investment in metal smelting and, second, at increasing the value-added of domestically produced resources to generate higher tax revenues and energy usage fees. The export of nickel concentrate has been completely banned. Since then, due to a rapid and sharp decline in global nickel supply, nickel prices have been steadily rising—especially this year. 5 Mid-month, LME Nickel prices once rose to per ton. 21000 Dollar, set a record 2012 Year 1 a new high since the beginning of the month. Aside from the Indonesian factor, Brazil’s mining giant Vale suspended operations at its site in New Caledonia in the first half of the year due to a wastewater leak. Goro The operation of nickel mines and processing plants, despite their subsequent resumption of production, has intensified market concerns that nickel supply will decline significantly.

　　5 After the month, the upward momentum of nickel prices temporarily came to a halt, especially as it entered... 7 Since the latter half of the month, nickel prices have begun to fluctuate steadily at high levels, and reports have陆续 emerged that Indonesia will gradually ease its ban. 7 Moon 22 On [date], the Indonesian government announced that, provided domestic companies comply with tax regulations, they will be allowed to resume exporting certain processed ores, including copper concentrate. 7 Moon 25 The Indonesian government has once again reached a memorandum of understanding with major international mining companies and granted... “ Export license ” These developments are seen as a prelude to the easing of restrictions on nickel ore exports. However, at present, the Indonesian government still adopts a policy of issuing licenses on a case-by-case basis for refined ore exports. At this stage, only copper, iron ore, and lead-zinc ores are covered; there are no plans yet to relax restrictions on nickel refined ore, despite Indonesia’s significant share in the global supply.

　　Institutions are optimistic about the future price of nickel.

　　Following statements by senior Indonesian government officials, several related companies and research institutions expressed optimism about this year’s nickel price outlook.

　　Australia's third-largest nickel mining company Western Area It is expected that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal concentrates in the first half of this year will lead to global repercussions. 15%-20% The supply shortage has provided a clear boost to the company's annual nickel concentrate sales. It is reported that the supply-demand gap for nickel in Australia is widening, and Australia's largest mining company, BHP, is... 2013 After shutting down the company’s nickel mining operations last year, it has also gradually phased out operations in the first half of this year from... Western Area Purchased 12000 Tons of refined nickel concentrate to meet its demand for refined nickel production in Australia.

　　Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the Indonesian government will not yet lift the ban on exports of nickel concentrate. Although the Indonesian government has reached memoranda of understanding with some mining companies, allowing them to obtain export licenses—subject to the payment of a security deposit—for refined copper ore, iron ore, and lead-zinc ore, it remains tight-lipped about exporting nickel concentrate. As a result, nickel—a key industrial metal that has performed exceptionally well so far this year—is expected to continue its upward trend in the near term.

　　However, Goldman Sachs analysts also pointed out that if production capacity increases significantly before the end of this year, the Indonesian government might allow nickel miners to resume operations during the smelting plant construction phase, thereby maximizing employment, boosting export revenues, and potentially increasing export taxes on nickel ore. Goldman Sachs believes this would lead to an extremely ample supply of nickel ore from Indonesia throughout the smelting plant construction period. 　　

Barclays predicts that the international nickel market may face a supply gap next year, and the marginal cost of nickel supply is expected to rise significantly, potentially further driving up nickel prices. Barclays also emphasized that the export ban has dealt a severe blow to Indonesia’s export trade, resulting in a large-scale trade deficit for the country, the closure of mining plants, and an increase in unemployment. Under the right conditions, Indonesia’s export ban could be somewhat relaxed at some point in the future.