This year, the mining industry is expected to perform steadily and strongly.
　　—— 2011 Analysis of China's Mineral Resource Development and the Supply-Demand Situation of Mineral Products, along with This Year's Industry Outlook
　　2011 In recent years, factors such as the severe European sovereign debt crisis, a sluggish U.S. economy, and inflationary pressures in emerging countries have led to a slow global economic recovery. However, China’s economy continues to maintain rapid growth. GDP Growth 9.1% However, external demand remains sluggish, while fixed-asset investment is growing rapidly. The global mining sector is trending downward, with slowing demand, difficulties in capital markets, and sharp fluctuations in resource prices.
　　The above conclusion comes from this year. 1 Moon 5 The event, hosted by the China Mining Association in Beijing, on [date]. 2011 China Mineral Resources Development and Mineral Product Supply-Demand Situation Analysis Seminar.
　　Wang Jiahua, Executive Vice President of the China Mining Association, Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of the China Mining News, Chen Xianda, Vice President and Secretary-General of the China Mining Association, as well as heads or representatives from industry associations including the China National Coal Industry Association, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, and the China Metallurgical Mining Enterprises Association, along with representatives from related enterprises such as China Minmetals Mining Holdings Co., Ltd. and Chinalco Mining Resources Co., Ltd., gathered together to elaborate on... 2011 The overall operational status of the mining industry this year was studied and analyzed. 2012 Regarding the supply and demand outlook for the annual mineral products market, some experts offered insightful and well-founded perspectives on the development and utilization of mineral resources. The meeting was chaired by Chen Xianda.
　　Coal
　　The overall trend is positive, and demand will continue to increase moderately, though at a slower pace.
　　Liang Dunshi, Director of the Research Division of the Economic Operation Department of the China National Coal Industry Association and Deputy Secretary-General of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, stated at the meeting that: 2011 In the past year, the coal economy as a whole has shown a positive trend: coal consumption has increased, coal production and transportation volumes have grown relatively rapidly, net imports have risen, and the overall supply has remained ample. However, the issues of unbalanced regional development and uneven enterprise growth remain prominent and are showing a tendency to widen.
　　Recently, demand in the coal market has slowed down, while supply continues to grow. International coal prices have declined, and coal imports have surged significantly. Coal inventories at coastal power plants and ports have been steadily rising, and domestic market prices have continued to fall, indicating an overall easing of supply-demand conditions in the coal market. However, downward pressure on China’s economic growth is increasing, the situation regarding energy conservation and emission reduction remains severe, and the need to adjust the energy structure has become even more urgent, which will likely restrain coal consumption.
　　From the perspective of coal demand, this year, demand for thermal coal is expected to continue growing at a relatively rapid pace. It is forecast that the coal demand from the power industry will increase over the course of the year. 8% By the way, coal demand in the steel industry is growing. 6% By the way, coal demand in the construction materials industry is growing. 6% By the way, coal demand in the chemical industry is growing. 6.7% Left and right; from the perspective of coal supply, 2012 This year, coal production capacity will continue to be released, and provinces and regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi will remain the primary areas for increased coal production. It remains relatively difficult to boost coal transportation capacity, and the mismatch between increased transportation capacity and the regional distribution of growing coal output will persist for the long term. Coal imports will likely remain at a substantial scale, possibly even slightly higher than last year.
　　Overall trend forecast: 2012 This year, the national economy will continue to maintain steady and relatively rapid growth, and coal demand will still increase moderately, though at a slower pace. Nationally, coal production capacity will keep expanding, coal imports will remain high, and coal supply capacity will further improve. It is expected that, for the year as a whole, the overall coal supply-demand balance will be broadly balanced with a slight easing, characterized by structural overcapacity alongside regionally varying periods of tightness. The market outlook is therefore not optimistic.
　　Comment: Constrained by the state’s policy on regulating coal prices for power generation, rising coal prices will “impede smooth progress.” 2012 This year, demand in the steel and non-ferrous metals industries is expected to remain sluggish. As prices of imported thermal coal decline, power plants are easing their demand for thermal coal. Although both total coal supply and demand have increased, the growth rate of coal supply has outpaced that of coal demand. Therefore, efforts should be intensified to consolidate coal resources and appropriately curb the expansion of coal production capacity. Only by knowing when to stop can we ensure overall economic stability.
　　Nonferrous metals
　　The economy is rebounding and showing signs of improvement, with steady growth in import and export trade. The trade deficit continues to widen, while prices generally remain on the decline.
　　Duan Shaofu, Director of the Heavy Metals Division of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated that, 2011 In recent years, China’s nonferrous metals industry has been steadily recovering and showing positive trends. Product output has maintained steady growth. 10 The output of commonly used non-ferrous metals is 3141.6 10,000 tons, up year-on-year 9.28% Additionally, enterprises above a certain scale 6 The output of mineral products reached 734 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 16.48% Enterprise profits have surged, and the nonferrous metals industry has achieved profitability. 1493 100 million yuan, an increase compared to the same period last year. 59.2% 。
　　Last year, trade in mineral products showed steady growth, yet the trade deficit continued to widen. Affected by factors such as an increasing domestic supply of mineral products and inverted price relationships between domestic and international markets, imports of minerals like copper, lead, and zinc declined somewhat. Meanwhile, driven by the rapid expansion of alumina and nickel-iron production capacities, imports of bauxite and nickel ore surged significantly. Influenced by economic fluctuations in Western countries, this year, prices of major nonferrous metal commodities have experienced sharp volatility and are generally trending downward gradually.
　　Overall Trend Analysis: The global economy is experiencing slow growth, and domestic policies aimed at curbing inflation—and other factors—will exert some influence on the overall demand for nonferrous metals. However, the supply-and-demand dynamics of mineral products have not undergone any fundamental changes. Meanwhile, the expansion of smelting capacity will further boost demand for mineral products, meaning that demand for raw materials such as copper, lead, zinc, and aluminum will continue to grow overall. Institutional interest in copper remains strong, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels. In contrast, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices will continue to fluctuate around their cost levels, with relatively smaller price swings compared to those of copper. It is forecast that the average annual prices of copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc will be roughly flat or slightly lower than last year’s levels.
　　Comment: At present, China’s nonferrous metals industry finds itself in a situation where, despite having sufficient resources on hand, it remains deeply concerned. The volatile supply-and-demand dynamics and price fluctuations across various metal types have made the path of developing and utilizing these metals increasingly shrouded in uncertainty. Therefore, policy makers need to take decisive action, providing comprehensive support for the overall mining environment, promoting a balanced supply-demand relationship for each metal type, and striving to align the development and utilization of nonferrous metal mineral resources with the level of economic and social development.
　　Petrochemical
　　International oil prices have generally risen, leading to higher costs in the downstream refining and chemical sectors, while domestic oil and gas market demand remains robust.
　　Zhao Zhiping, Director of the Information and Market Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, stated that... 2011 Year, the entire petroleum and chemical industry invested in total. 1.23 Trillions, accounting for the nation's total annual investment. 10.69% , with a total output value reaching 10.24 Trillions, accounting for the nation's total industrial output value. 13.3% 。
　　Last year, the domestic oil and gas market saw robust demand, with both natural gas and refined oil supplies growing relatively quickly, while diesel supply remained tight. Previously... 11 months, domestic apparent oil consumption reached 4.28 100 million tons, up year-on-year 4.6% Import dependence 56.39% ; Apparent crude oil consumption 4.15 Hundred million tons, import dependency 55.03% ; Apparent consumption of natural gas 1179.4 Hundred million cubic meters, increase in volume 20.7% Apparent consumption of refined petroleum products (combined gasoline, kerosene, and diesel) 2.39 100 million tons, up year-on-year 8.1% 。2011 At the end of the year, China's crude oil single-unit processing capacity was... 5.9 100 million tons, up year-on-year 6.9% , roughly in sync with the growth in domestic refined oil consumption.
　　Overall analysis and forecast: 2012 This year, the petrochemical industry as a whole will continue to maintain relatively rapid economic growth, though the growth rate will slow down compared to last year. The industry’s total output value is expected to increase by approximately... on a year-on-year basis. 20%~25% , the total output value will reach 13 Ten thousand ~13.5 Trillion yuan—the total annual profit is expected to reach approximately 9500 100 million yuan, up approximately ... year-on-year. 15% Crude oil production is expected to remain at 2 Over 100 million tons, with natural gas production of approximately... 1130 hundred million cubic meters, with crude oil processing volume of approximately 4.7 Hundred million tons, with refined oil production at approximately 2.75 100 million tons. The projected apparent consumption of crude oil is... 4.8 100 million tons, with apparent natural gas consumption of approximately... 1480 hundred million cubic meters; apparent consumption of refined oil products is approximately 2.8 Hundred million tons. Domestic oil and gas production will continue to remain stable, while the country’s dependence on foreign sources for petroleum and crude oil will keep rising, and its capacity to ensure supply of refined oil products will further strengthen. International crude oil prices will continue to stay at high levels, and domestic refined oil prices will maintain an upward trend, though the rate of increase will be somewhat lower than last year’s.
　　Comment: The accelerated pace of industrial restructuring in the petrochemical sector, coupled with the rapid market response to high-tech and high-value-added products, is the primary driver behind profit growth. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s chemical industry will enter a critical phase of industrial transformation and upgrading. Energy conservation and environmental protection, new materials, new energy sources, and emerging coal-to-chemicals industries will become powerful growth drivers for the sector. With supportive policy measures providing a favorable environment, the chemical industry as a whole is poised to achieve broader growth potential.
　　Iron ore
　　The market is shrinking, economic growth is slowing down, prices are fluctuating at high levels, and overall resource supply exceeds demand.
　　Yang Jiasheng, Secretary-General of the China Metallurgical Mining Enterprises Association, stated that... 2011 In the past year, the steel industry has faced severe challenges, particularly in the second half of the year when it found itself in a deeply troubled situation. With the slowdown in railway construction, growing expectations of a turning point in housing prices, and declining residential construction starts, coupled with the gradual phasing out of subsidies for automobiles and home appliances, downstream demand for steel has weakened. As a result, the domestic steel market has experienced an oversupply, leading to frequent price fluctuations, persistently high costs, and a sharp drop in industry profitability to its lowest level yet.
　　2011 In the year, the iron ore mining and beneficiation industry performed well, iron ore exploration progressed smoothly, and iron ore production increased significantly. China’s domestic iron ore supply capacity continued to improve, with the total production capacity of raw iron ore reaching... 15.5 Hundred million tons / Year. This year, new investments in mines continue to maintain steady growth, and it is expected that the total new investments for the year will exceed... 1250 100 million yuan.
　　Both the quantity and price of iron ore imports have reached new highs. 1 Moon ~11 Month, China's cumulative imports of iron ore 62200 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 10.95% Average landed price of imported minerals 166.2 U.S. dollar / tons, year-on-year growth 31.5% The dependence on foreign iron ore has decreased. 1 Moon ~11 Month, over-quota imports 7000 Ten thousand tons, with an actual external dependence rate of 57.4% The supply of iron ore resources is relatively ample, with only... for the entire year. 2、4、5 Resource supply is tight in the three-month period, while in the other months, supply exceeds demand.
　　Overall trend forecast: 2012 This year, the proactive fiscal policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and the prudent monetary policy will create favorable conditions for the iron and steel industry to achieve steady and healthy development. Although both the domestic and international environments have become more complex and challenging, domestic demand remains immensely promising, and the rigid growth in demand for steel products provides favorable conditions for the development of iron ore resources.
　　This year, the growth rate of steel production will continue to slow down, and both domestic and international market demand will determine the country’s apparent consumption of crude steel. 7 Around 100 million tons. The tight supply-demand situation in the global iron ore market continues to ease. The volume of imported ore and... 2011 The figure remained flat or even declined year-on-year. Domestic mine capacity will continue to be released, and domestic raw iron ore production is expected to reach [amount] this year. 14 hundred million ~15.5 Hundred million tons. Fluctuations in iron ore prices will become more frequent, but the magnitude of these fluctuations will narrow. The average landed price of imported iron ore is expected to decline compared to last year. 10% Around, the annual average is. 145 U.S. dollar / Around tons, with a trend of lower prices in the first half and higher prices in the second half. The average annual price of domestic iron ore fines was... 1100 Yuan / Around a ton, with an overall trend of low at the beginning and higher toward the end.
　　Comment: Over the past year, the iron ore industry has become the tragic protagonist of a “high-platform dive”—despite holding abundant resources and substantial cash reserves, it remains helplessly subject to others’ control. Perhaps this situation can serve as a wake-up call for China’s domestic steel market: with demand slowing down, self-reliance is truly the “golden rule.”
　　Gold
　　Prices are soaring, production growth is slowing down, industry concentration is increasing, and reserve resources are insufficient—yet the overall market outlook remains positive.
　　Zhang Yongtao, Vice President of the China Gold Association, stated that... 2011 Since the beginning of this year, driven by the sustained rise in gold prices, Chinese gold industry enterprises have seen a significant increase in economic benefits. Although the growth rate of gold production has slowed down, both indicators have once again reached their best levels on record for the same period. 1 Moon ~11 Month, the country's cumulative gold production 323.362 ton. Estimated 2011 Annual gold production will exceed 355 ton ~360 About a ton.
　　As large gold enterprises intensify their exploration efforts for gold resources and undergo mergers and restructuring, the resource holdings of these major gold companies have significantly increased, leading to a corresponding rise in industry concentration. 1 Moon ~11 In the month, the top ten domestic gold groups cumulatively achieved gold refined product output and mineral gold production figures as follows: 168.511 ton and 131.450 Ton, achieving the best level on record for the same period. Previously... 11 months, the nation’s gold enterprises have cumulatively achieved a total industrial output value of 2442.775 100 million yuan, achieving profit 298.336 100 million yuan, up year-on-year 35.71% , approximately 1/3 Its profits come from non-ferrous industries such as copper, lead, and zinc.
　　2011 At the beginning of the year, the gold price was 1400 U.S. dollar / About an ounce, 9 At the beginning of the month, international gold prices briefly broke through. 1900 U.S. dollar / Ounces, after which gold prices began to fluctuate sharply. By year-end, gold prices had... 1600 U.S. dollar / Fluctuating around an ounce.
　　There is a shortage of reserve resources for exploration and development. The degree of intensive mining development is low, with serious duplication of infrastructure and fragmented ownership; further efforts are still needed to promote resource integration. Compared with international mining giants, domestic enterprises still have a significant gap. Small-scale mines have weaker resilience to risks. Rising gold prices have fueled speculation in mining operations, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the mineral rights market and driving transaction prices to remain relatively high.
　　Commentary: In the post-subprime mortgage crisis era, as the global economy remains turbulent, gold’s “character” is destined to become the top choice for preserving wealth. The growing public attention toward gold has drawn the attention of governments worldwide. Rapidly rising demand continues to fuel gold’s upward momentum, sparking a global gold boom and ushering in unprecedented prosperity across the entire gold industry—both upstream and downstream. Given its status as the “darling of all,” the gold industry should remain clear-headed and rational. It must expand its “internal capabilities” to enhance the overall competitiveness of the domestic industry and strengthen its “external reach” to establish a solid foothold in the global market and foster mutual exchange and cooperation.
　　Chemical industry
　　The development situation and benefits are generally positive; investment in the chemical and mining industries remains stable, while the overall degree of external dependence remains relatively high.
　　Du Jiahai, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Chemical Mining Association, stated that... 2011 In recent years, the development of key chemical mineral resources—phosphorus, sulfur, and potassium—has generally shown positive trends. Resource reserves have increased somewhat, and production has grown significantly. Prices of phosphorus, sulfur, and potassium mineral products have remained stable with a slight upward trend. Investment in the chemical mining and beneficiation industry has remained steady, and the industry’s profitability continues to improve.
　　Last year before 11 months, nationwide 135 The cumulative production of phosphate rock by large-scale phosphate mining enterprises. 7355.9 Ten thousand tons ( P2O5 > 30% ), year-on-year growth 32.8% Currently, China’s phosphate mining industry is shifting from primarily exploiting high-grade ores toward the orderly utilization of low- and medium-grade ores. Nationwide... 83 Cumulative production of pyrite by mining enterprises above designated size. 1427.1 Ten thousand tons ( S > 35% ), year-on-year growth 7.2% . National 43 Enterprises above designated size collectively produced potash fertilizer. 360 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 12.2% China's potash mining enterprises are mainly concentrated in the two provinces and regions of Qinghai and Xinjiang, and their combined potash production accounts for the nation's total. 99% The above.
　　Although China’s identified phosphate ore reserves are substantial, the ore grade is low and the exploration degree is insufficient; the reserves shown in the table are merely... 9.1 Hundred million tons—based on the current utilization status, the estimated level of assurance is only... 10 year. From the perspective of resource reserves, the reported reserves of pyrite are... 65574.8 Ten thousand tons—currently exploitable based on the existing utilization status. 30 year; sulfur resources are relatively scarce, and the shortfall is mainly met by importing sulfur. The country’s dependence on foreign sulfur resources exceeds... 50 %; China's potash resources mainly come from modern salt lake deposits, but based on the current utilization status, they are exploitable. 20 In that year, the country's dependence on imported potash fertilizer reached as high as... 50.5% Currently, China still exports a small amount of phosphate rock.
　　2011 This year, China’s chemical mineral products have achieved a roughly balanced supply-demand situation, with prices remaining generally stable and showing a steady upward trend. Fixed-asset investment in the chemical mining and beneficiation industry continues to be robust, and business performance continues to improve. As of... 10 Month, chemical and mining industry for ore dressing 265 Enterprises above designated size achieved main business revenue. 290.2 100 million yuan, achieving profit 33.8 100 million yuan, up year-on-year 83.8% 。
　　Overall trend forecast: 2012 In recent years, low- and medium-grade phosphate ores have been gradually put into use, with production steadily increasing but at a slowing pace, and the supply-demand imbalance beginning to ease. The extraction of high-grade ores has stabilized, beneficiation scales have expanded, production costs have risen, yet prices remain stable with a slight upward trend. Currently, domestic sulfur prices are at... 1760 Yuan / Tons—prices are expected to decline somewhat this year. However, since China relies heavily on imports for sulfur, uncertainties in the Middle East situation are adding to the volatility of sulfur prices. Potash production has increased slightly, but the country continues to depend on imports. Currently, import prices for potash have approached... 500 U.S. dollar / At the ton mark, prices have slightly declined.
　　Comment: The overall reserves of chemical and mineral resources are insufficient, and overseas mining efforts have been slow. As a result, it has become imperative for companies in this industry to “go global.” At the same time, existing resource stocks should be exploited in a planned manner, with strict measures taken to prevent reckless and wasteful consumption. The high resource tax on phosphate rock and the unreasonable collection methods have long been criticized by enterprises. A moderate fiscal and tax incentive could help promote the utilization of medium- and low-grade phosphate rock, thereby enhancing the country’s capacity to secure phosphate resources.
　　Tungsten ore
　　The industry as a whole is showing a growth trend, and prices continue to fluctuate at high levels.
　　Liu Liangxian, Secretary-General of the China Tungsten Industry Association, stated that... 2011 This year, China’s production of tungsten products, market demand, and import-export trade volumes all maintained a growth trend, and both international and domestic tungsten prices reached their highest levels ever.
　　According to World Metal Statistics, 2010 Year, global tungsten ore production 58792 Ton (tungsten metal, China’s production revised) ) Among them, China 51250 tons, accounting for the global total of 87.17% 。2011 In the year, the total output of tungsten mining remained generally stable, and nationwide activities involving tungsten mining... 18 Among the provinces and regions, the primary mining of tungsten ore involves... 15 Provinces and regions with major tungsten mining enterprises 132 Home, a comprehensive recycling tungsten mining enterprise 58 Home.
　　Through the integration of tungsten resources, the development of tungsten mining resources is showing a trend toward diversified capital, large-scale operations, intensive management, and standardized practices, with stable overall extraction volumes. The proportion of black tungsten concentrate to white tungsten concentrate production has changed, from... 7 ∶ 3 Become 6 ∶ 4。
　　In the first half of the year, major tungsten smelting and processing enterprises across the country saw a significant increase in their output of tungsten smelting and processing products. Growth slowed somewhat in the third quarter of last year; however, it is expected that the annual output of tungsten smelting and processing products will still show year-on-year growth. Trade volume of tungsten products—both imports and exports—has increased, with cumulative export value reaching... 14.17 hundred million U.S. dollars, up year-on-year 92.32% , reaching a record high. Imports of tungsten concentrate surged significantly, preceding... 11 months, imported tungsten products 5049.05 Tons (metal content, including tungsten concentrate), year-on-year increase 21.38% 。
　　2011 This year, the profit growth rate of tungsten mining and smelting enterprises has outpaced that of cemented carbide enterprises. It is expected that the industry’s total sales revenue will exceed... 700 100 million yuan, up year-on-year 40% Above. Domestic tungsten market prices remain volatile at high levels, and the annual average price is expected to exceed... 13.5 Ten thousand yuan / Tons, reaching a new all-time high.
　　Overall trend forecast: 2012 In the past year, domestic tungsten prices have experienced volatile fluctuations at high levels, demonstrating strong resistance to price declines. International tungsten prices have risen in tandem with the increase in domestic tungsten prices. As a result, China’s tungsten products are gaining greater competitiveness and influence in the global market. Meanwhile, favorable conditions for China’s economic development remain abundant, and the continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies will continue to drive growth in demand for tungsten products. Overall, the industry faces promising opportunities, and tungsten prices are expected to remain at high levels.
　　Comment: Adjusting product structures and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading are also major challenges facing the tungsten industry. Administrative regulatory measures and fiscal and tax policies have become bottlenecks hindering the industry's rapid development. Perhaps, at a pivotal moment when the tungsten industry is striving to undergo its own transformation, policy support could provide some positive impetus to the external environment.
　　Nonmetal
　　Production capacity is growing relatively quickly, prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, and market demand is slowing down.
　　Wang Wenli, Secretary-General of the China Non-Metallic Mineral Industry Association, stated that... 2011 In recent years, among the non-metallic mineral resources with proven reserves in our country, most have been developed and utilized, and a certain level of mining and processing capacity has been established. Among these, the production volumes of talc, fluorite, graphite, bentonite, gypsum, and kaolin rank among the highest in the world. The production capacity of non-metallic minerals has been growing relatively rapidly, especially for minerals that have attracted greater attention, such as fluorite and graphite. 2011 Year, the production capacity of flake graphite reached 100 Around 10,000 tons, 2012 The figure will continue to grow this year.
　　2011 Year, fluorite product output was approximately 655 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 35.49% However, prices have fallen, dropping to as low as 2000 Yuan / Less than one ton. Investment enthusiasm for graphite remains undiminished, and flake graphite production capacity has reached approximately... 100 Ten thousand tons, with a production volume of approximately 70 Ten thousand tons. The annual total production of chrysotile asbestos is... 38.6 Ten thousand tons, compared to 2010 Annual output declined slightly; short-fiber asbestos still accounts for a high proportion in the product mix, and domestic sales of asbestos showed a significant year-on-year decrease. The total annual production of wollastonite... 74.5 Ten thousand tons, total sales 68.8 Ten thousand tons, of which, exports 49.4 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 6.5% The talc industry’s production and operations have generally shown slight improvement, with annual output... 210 Around 10,000 tons. Total annual output of magnesium products and ore. 3301.5 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 3.6% Kaolin production is approximately 320 Ten thousand tons, and with 2010 The annual figure remained basically flat.
　　Overall trend forecast: 2012 This year, China’s demand for non-metallic mineral product exports is facing downward pressure, and potential risks are also on the rise. The industry will be adversely affected by increasing production capacity and weak domestic and international market demand. Therefore, enterprises in the sector need to not only proactively identify and mitigate risks but also seize opportunities by actively adjusting their product and industrial structures, thereby ensuring steady economic development of the non-metallic minerals industry.
　　Comment: The relatively lagging exploration of non-metallic mineral resources directly results in a low level of resource assurance and a shortage of reserve reserves. Insufficient efforts in the orderly development and integration of these resources have led to a low degree of industrial concentration. The high-quality and efficient development of the industry requires scientific management and advanced technology as its foundation. In the process of advancing or retreating in industry development, market forces should play the dominant role, yet the government’s strong and decisive voice is equally essential.
　　2012 Annual Mining Industry Outlook and Related Recommendations
　　Liu Shuchen, Director of the Analysis Office at the Information Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, stated that, 2011 This year, the overall situation of domestic mineral resources is characterized by tight demand domestically but relatively relaxed conditions externally; short-term relief is expected, yet long-term trends point toward tightening; prices remain highly volatile, with increasing fluctuations; exploration efforts face significant challenges; investment in the mining industry is slowing down and remains well below the national average; however, the production and supply capacity of mineral products continues to strengthen, particularly for steel and cement—materials that play a crucial role in supporting and underpinning infrastructure development. Production of raw coal continues to grow at a relatively rapid pace. 1 Moon ~11 Month, nationwide production of raw coal 31 100 million tons, up year-on-year 11.6% ; Oil supply remains basically stable, and large-scale enterprises nationwide are producing crude oil. 1.87 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 0.6% ; Iron ore 12.1 Hundred million tons, growth 27.4% ; Crude steel 6.3 Hundred million tons, growth 9.8% Cement production 18.9 Hundred million tons, growth 17.2% 。
　　For many years, the rapid growth in mineral production has failed to keep pace with the increasing demand for mineral consumption. As a result, large quantities of certain bulk minerals still need to be imported, and trade in mineral products continues to grow at a relatively fast rate. Mineral prices have been fluctuating at high levels and are now entering a phase of rapid upward trend; prices of major mineral commodities have already surpassed their pre-financial-crisis peak levels.
　　As the second year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, this year will see the launch of a batch of major projects. With the large-scale development of infrastructure underway, there will inevitably remain strong demand for mineral raw materials. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the fundamental factors influencing China’s demand for mineral resources have not changed. We must maintain a clear understanding of the underlying contradictions between supply and demand for mineral resources.
　　Prices of mineral products are experiencing heightened volatility and intensified fluctuations. Currently, human factors are playing an increasingly significant role in influencing mineral product prices, with rampant speculation and manipulation. As a result, the likelihood of mineral product prices oscillating at high levels is growing. Recently, factors driving up and down mineral product prices—particularly crude oil prices—have been intertwined. While the global economic slowdown could push oil prices lower, geopolitical factors such as those involving Iran might instead drive oil prices higher. Meanwhile, gold’s function of preserving and enhancing value is keeping its price at a high level. Iron ore prices, however, are expected to decline.
　　Our country should strengthen the development of the mineral rights market and fully leverage the market’s fundamental role in allocating resources. At present, as we advance integrated exploration driven by new mechanisms for geological prospecting, it is essential to properly manage the establishment and allocation of mineral rights, rationally distribute the benefits derived from successful exploration efforts, and establish a mineral rights market that is standardized, orderly, competitive, and open—thus providing robust support for our strategic initiatives aimed at achieving breakthroughs in mineral exploration and ensuring that: 358 Achievement of the goal.
　　Enhance the effectiveness of overall quantity controls. Relevant authorities have found that the total output control measures for tungsten, rare earths, and antimony have been ineffective—for example... 2009 Year and 2010 That year, tungsten concentrate production exceeded the total control target by nearly... 50% Moreover, the authority of the competent departments responsible for mineral resources has been gradually eroded. Therefore, it is essential to strengthen coordination among ministries and commissions, enhance the authority and seriousness of policies, and formulate a unified national policy that ensures consistency across various aspects such as total extraction volumes, production scales, and export quotas. We must also improve the scientific basis of overall volume control, ensuring that the controlled totals are effectively implemented and enforced. Furthermore, we should adopt a multi-pronged approach, employing a combination of administrative, legal, and economic measures.
　　In his concluding remarks at the seminar, Wang Jiahua, Executive Vice Chairman of the China Mining Association, said: 2012 This year, global economic turmoil has led to an increase in uncertainties surrounding the development of the mining industry, while shifting political landscapes have become the primary driver of global economic volatility. Experts’ forecasts for the industry are based on projections from a normal development perspective; however, given the growing number of uncertainties, significant reversals cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for mining industry development remains optimistic. It is worth noting that investors in mining enterprises need to exercise even greater caution.