Key takeaway: Global cobalt reserves are concentrated, with nearly half of the world’s resources located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to statistics, total global cobalt reserves in 2015 amounted to 7.16 million tons, of which the DRC held 3.4 million tons, Australia 1.1 million tons, and Cuba 500,000 tons. China’s reserves totaled only 80,000 tons, accounting for just about 1% of the world’s cobalt resources.

　　Global cobalt reserves are concentrated, with nearly half of the world’s resources located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to statistics, total global cobalt reserves in 2015 amounted to 7.16 million tons, of which the DRC held 3.4 million tons, Australia 1.1 million tons, and Cuba 500,000 tons. China’s reserves totaled only 80,000 tons, accounting for just about 1% of the world’s cobalt resources.

Global Distribution of Cobalt Reserves

Source: Compiled from publicly available information

Global Cobalt Reserves (10,000 tons, 2015)

Source: Compiled from publicly available information

　　Among global cobalt resources, 41% are copper-cobalt ores, 36% are nickel-copper-cobalt sulfide ores, and 15% are lateritic nickel-cobalt ores. In terms of the geographical distribution of global cobalt production, copper-cobalt ores account for 60%, nickel-copper-cobalt sulfide ores for 23%, and lateritic nickel-cobalt ores for 15%. In these ores, the cobalt grades are significantly lower than those of copper and nickel, meaning that cobalt mining is more heavily influenced by copper and nickel prices, while cobalt prices themselves have relatively little impact on cobalt mining. The substantial year-on-year increase of nearly 30% in cobalt supply in 2010 was driven by the high copper prices that year.

Global Distribution of Cobalt Mineral Resources

Source: Compiled from publicly available information

Global cobalt mine production breakdown

Source: Compiled from publicly available information

　　In 2016, global cobalt production from mines totaled 108,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. Among these, the Democratic Republic of Congo accounted for nearly 65% of the total, followed by Russia, Canada, Australia, and other regions. Starting from the second half of 2016, political instability emerged in the Congo. On December 19, after the incumbent president’s term expired, he refused to step down, escalating the risk of conflict among various parties and leading to a decline in domestic cobalt production—particularly from small-scale and artisanal mines. Meanwhile, artisanal mines have been subject to government crackdowns due to issues such as child labor, which has also affected their output. As a result, Congo’s cobalt mine production fell by 7% year-on-year in 2016 to 77,400 tons. The Congo has long been China’s primary importer of cobalt ore; in 2016, China’s imports of cobalt ore and its concentrates saw a significant drop.

Global mine cobalt production (tons)

Source: Compiled from publicly available information

Imports of Chinese cobalt ore and its concentrates (tons)

Source: Compiled from publicly available information

　　While mineral cobalt production declined, global refined cobalt concentrate production actually increased year-on-year in 2016, reaching a total annual output of 107,500 tons—a rise of approximately 3% over the previous year. This indicates that the global cobalt market has entered a phase of digesting existing raw material inventories. From 2017 to 2018, global cobalt supply is expected to grow at rates of 2% and 4%, respectively, with global supply reaching 109,000 tons in 2017 and 114,000 tons in 2018.

Global Cobalt Concentrate Production Forecast (tons)