A recent report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts that natural gas will be the fastest-growing energy source in China over the next 30 years. By 2030, China’s natural gas demand is expected to reach nearly 520 billion cubic meters, and by 2050, it will exceed 800 billion cubic meters.

　　At the 7th Annual Meeting of the Global Energy Security Think Tank Forum recently held in Beijing, a report titled “China’s Energy Outlook 2018–2050,” released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, revealed that, under the combined influence of supply-side structural reforms and shifts in economic growth patterns, China’s energy demand structure will undergo significant changes over the next three-plus decades. By 2050, coal’s share in energy demand will drop to below 40%; in contrast, natural gas’s share will rise substantially, projected to increase to over 20%.

　　“China’s economy has shifted from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development. Promoting green development, establishing and perfecting an economic system characterized by green, low-carbon, and circular development, and bolstering the energy-saving and environmental protection industry as well as the clean energy industry have become the general trend,” said Cai Fang, Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This also presents significant opportunities for the rapid development of the natural gas industry.

　　It is understood that, as national environmental protection requirements continue to tighten and the concept of green development takes root in people’s minds, the natural gas industry has entered a fast-track development phase. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s natural gas consumption reached 237.3 billion cubic meters in 2017, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 15.3%.

　　From the perspective of natural gas application, the report suggests that in the future, a significant portion of the growth in the power sector will come from natural gas-fired power generation. Natural gas-fired power generation will move beyond its current role as a peak-shaving power source and become one of the primary forms of electricity generation. It is projected that by 2020, natural gas-fired power generation will reach approximately 335.1 billion kilowatt-hours; by 2030, it will rise to about 582.2 billion kilowatt-hours; and by 2050, it will surpass 1 trillion kilowatt-hours. At the same time, some of the natural gas-fired power generation will also be used for heat supply, partially offsetting the decline in heat supply from coal-fired power plants.