1. Global refined copper smelting capacity is growing slowly.

Since 1995, global refined copper production has been on a positive growth trajectory every year except for 2002, though the pace of growth has fluctuated considerably. After 2008, with the exception of 2014, the growth rate of refined copper has remained below 4%, and in 2015, the growth rate was only 1%. In 2015, global refined copper production reached 23.0808 million tons, of which China accounted for 7.9636 million tons. China is the world’s largest producer of refined copper, and in the past two years, its refined copper output has accounted for roughly 35% of global refined copper production. According to data, in 2016, global refined copper production increased by 2.1% compared to 2015, reaching 23.46 million tons.

New electrolytic copper capacity in China (unit: 10,000 tons)

Data source: Compiled from publicly available information

According to the data, excluding China, only six copper refining projects were scheduled to come online between 2017 and 2018, adding a total capacity of 362,000 tons per year. Additionally, three more projects currently under planning are set to begin operations in 2018; however, the new capacity added in 2017 alone will be just 57,000 tons per year. The data also show that the growth rate of refined copper capacity peaked at 4% in 2017—and thereafter, the growth rate will gradually slow down.

Global Refined Copper Production Capacity Trend (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

Data source: Compiled from publicly available information

2. The growth rate of China’s refined copper smelting capacity is slowing down.

The growth rate of China’s smelting capacity has also slowed down compared to previous years. According to projections, new refined copper capacity will increase by 300,000 tons per year in 2017 and by 450,000 tons per year in 2018. Forecasts indicate that China’s refined copper production will reach 8.2 million tons in 2017 and 8.6 million tons in 2018. Compared to the period from 2009 to 2013, when capacity increased by 600,000 tons per year annually, China’s smelting capacity growth rate has indeed slowed down.

New electrolytic copper production capacity in China

Data source: Compiled from publicly available information