2015 Year 12 The monthly index of business sentiment for the nonferrous metals industry, as compiled by the China National Institute for Economic and Social Research, is: 11.3, Slightly rebounded from the previous month. The business sentiment index continues to be at... “ Supercooling ” The interval is operating steadily, and the weak situation will be difficult to reverse in the short term.

　　In the construction of the non-ferrous metals industry prosperity index, 12 Among the indicators, located at “ Normal ” The interval has 4 An indicator, including the output of ten non-ferrous metals, M1 , residential property sales area, automobile production; located at “ Slightly cold ” The interval has 4 The indicators include household appliance output, imports of non-ferrous metals, total profits, and power generation; located at “ Supercooling ” Interval 4 The individual indicators are: LMEX Investment in fixed assets for non-ferrous metals, revenue from principal business operations, and export volume. The operational trends in the nickel industry are broadly consistent with the prosperity index for the non-ferrous metals industry.

　　 Prices continue to fall, and the smelting industry as a whole is suffering losses.

　　2015 Year LME Nickel prices are showing a one-sided downward trend, with year-to-date declines reaching... 45% Domestic spot nickel prices have followed the trend of overseas markets and have generally shown a one-way downward trend throughout the year. 2015 The average spot market price of nickel in China’s Yangtze River region for the year was 88625 Yuan / Ton, down year-on-year 25% As nickel prices continue to fall, 2015 High-grade domestic in the year 1.8% Laterite nickel ore from the beginning of the year 600 Yuan / Tons fell to the end of the year. 380 Yuan / ton, a decrease of 37%； 1.5% The medium-grade nickel ore from the beginning of the year... 450 Yuan / Tons fell to the end of the year. 220 Yuan / tons, with a decline as high as 51%； 0.9% The price of low-grade nickel ore has fallen from the beginning of the year. 220 Yuan / Tons fell to the end of the year. 150 Yuan / ton, a decrease of 32%。

　　2015 Year 1 to 11 Month, 86 Nickel and cobalt smelting enterprises above designated size are reporting losses. 36.5 100 million yuan.

　　 Nickel ore production declined, while nickel production continued to grow, and the output of nickel-containing pig iron saw a significant drop.

　　2015 Year 1 to 11 Month, nickel ore production (including metal content, the same below) 8.5 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 1.8% In Jilin, Yunnan, Gansu, and Xinjiang 4 Among the producing regions, only Xinjiang saw an increase in output; all others experienced declines to varying degrees. Gansu’s output accounted for a significant share of the nation’s total. 80% Furthermore, nickel ore production also experienced negative growth this year.

　　2015 Year 1 to 11 Month, nickel production 31.4 Tens of thousands of tons. Affected by the sharp drop in nickel prices, most domestic electrolytic nickel producers are facing losses, and domestic electrolytic nickel production enterprises with higher costs have been gradually shutting down. 7、8 More manufacturers are starting to shut down or reduce production at the beginning of the month. These include XinXin Mining, Guangxi YinYi, and Yantai Kaishi. 2015 Annual production has declined across the board. Jiangli, which has been shut down since the beginning of the year, currently has no plans to resume operations. Similarly, the resumption of operations at other companies that have successively halted production—such as Huaze Nickel-Cobalt, Nico Guorun, Jien Nickel Industry, and Yuanjiang Nickel Industry—has not yet been put on the agenda. Compared to electrolytic nickel, this year the domestic market for nickel sulfate has actually performed better, driven by a sharp increase in demand for ternary materials. As a result, some companies originally focused on electrolytic nickel have begun reducing their electrolytic nickel output and shifting to the production of nickel sulfate. Meanwhile, several companies that had previously switched from electrolytic cobalt production to electrolytic nickel production are now once again pivoting to produce both nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate.

　　2015 Annual pig iron production containing nickel has declined significantly, especially... 11 Monthly nickel prices hit a new high. 2003 Following the lowest point in years, production enterprises have been forced to shut down or reduce output, leading to a sharp decline in ferronickel production. According to data from Antaike, 2015 In China, the output of nickel-containing pig iron (converted to nickel metal content) was: 38.5 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 18% , among which the output of high-nickel iron is 31 Ten thousand tons, share: 79% ; The output of medium-nickel iron is 1.2 Ten thousand tons, share: 3% ; Low-nickel iron production is 6.3 Ten thousand tons, share: 18% As the output of conventional submerged arc furnaces, which lack cost advantages, continues to decline, RKEF The share of ferronickel production from the process is steadily increasing, reaching... 80% The above.

　　 Investment in nickel and cobalt mining, beneficiation, and smelting declined year-on-year.

　　2015 Year 1 to 11 In the current month, China has construction projects underway in the nickel and cobalt mining and beneficiation industry. 20 One, the investment amount is 8.1 100 million yuan, down year-on-year 62.2% ; Nickel-cobalt smelting construction projects include: 59 One, the investment amount is 96.6 100 million yuan, down year-on-year 32.4% In contrast to the decline in investment in domestic nickel smelting projects, there has been an increase in new projects focused on nickel alloy materials and battery materials—mainly because of the promising outlook for the future applications of nickel-containing alloys in sectors such as aerospace, power generation, and electric vehicles.

　　 Imports of nickel products increased, while imports of nickel ore decreased.

　　2015 Year 1 to 11 Month-to-date imports of unwrought nickel 26.7 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 113% Among them, electrolytic nickel. 25.8 10,000 tons, an increase year-on-year. 108% Import Russian nickel 16.8 10,000 tons, accounting for the total import volume. 65%。2015 Year 3 Moon 27 On [date], the electrolytic nickel futures contract was successfully listed for trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Due to the delivery specifications being limited to domestically produced electrolytic nickel, a squeeze occurred in the market. Market expectations now point to the introduction of delivery contracts for brands such as Russian nickel, Norwegian nickel, and Sumitomo nickel. The large-scale import of these brands has led to a sharp increase in electrolytic nickel imports. Furthermore... 2015 Since the beginning of this year, the spot import losses for electrolytic nickel have narrowed to the point where occasional profits are now being realized, opening up an import window and facilitating a surge of imported nickel into the domestic market.

　　2015 Year 1 to 11 Month, imported nickel iron 62.7 10,000 tons, an increase year-on-year. 146% , which converts to approximately 12.5 Ten thousand tons. Of this, approximately from Indonesia... 21.2 Ten thousand tons (most of which are nickel-containing pig iron shipped back to China from QingShan’s factory in Indonesia), New Caledonia 9.3 Ten thousand tons, Myanmar 5.9 Ten thousand tons, Japan 6.5 Ten thousand tons, Colombia 6.1 Ten thousand tons. Due to the declining grade of nickel ore, the nickel content in high-nickel iron produced by domestic high-nickel iron plants will also decrease. 8%~9% By and large, in addition to procuring domestic high-nickel pig iron, steel mills still need to purchase some imported nickel pig iron with higher nickel content for combined use. Given the price premium attached to imported nickel pig iron, it still enjoys a certain competitive edge when sold domestically. Compared to this, the volume of imported nickel pig iron used by steel mills... 2014 Compared with the same period last year, production has increased significantly, putting greater competitive pressure on domestic high-nickel iron plants.

　　2015 Year 1 to 11 Month, nickel ore imports 3343.3 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 26.2 Ten thousand tons. Of this, the import volume from the Philippines is... 3261 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 4% All of them are lateritic nickel ores. 2015 Year 1 to 11 In the month, China imported nickel sulfide concentrate in total. 75 10,000 tons, an increase year-on-year. 17% The primary reason for the increase in imports of nickel sulfide ore is that some nickel-iron plants are using nickel sulfide concentrate in rotary kilns to raise the grade of nickel ore and produce high-grade nickel-iron.

　　 Inventory has remained at a high level for a long time.

　　The continuous decline in nickel prices has also been accompanied by a rise in visible inventories. LME Nickel inventories remained stable throughout the year. 40 Above 10,000 tons, 2015 Year 6 The monthly figure has even reached an all-time high. 47 Ten thousand tons. Based on the global annual production, LME The proportion of nickel inventory is as high as 24.5% , significantly higher than the levels of other metals.

　　The surge in electrolytic nickel imports has led to a sharp increase in domestic nickel plate inventories. 2015 The trend has been consistently increasing year after year. China’s nickel plate inventory (including inventory in bonded zones) at the beginning of the year was less than... 7 A substantial increase of 10,000 tons by year-end. 19 Ten thousand tons, with nearly [a certain amount] in bonded zone warehouses. 8 Ten thousand tons.

　　2015 At the end of the year, the inventory of laterite nickel ore at China's major ports was approximately: 1450 10,000 tons (equivalent to approximately nickel metal content) 12 10,000 tons), a decrease of approximately... from the beginning of the year. 500 Ten thousand tons, including high-grade nickel ore. 250 10,000 tons of medium-grade nickel ore 600 Ten thousand tons of low-grade nickel ore 600 Ten thousand tons.

　　The domestic inventory of nickel-containing pig iron is at 2015 In the second half of the year, a clear downward trend emerged. The continued decline in nickel prices has led to a substantial drop in ferro-nickel prices as well, and there’s no sign of an upward trend in the short term. Many enterprises holding inventory have been forced to sell off their stocks at low prices before the end of the year in order to recover funds. According to Antaike’s survey, the current domestic inventory of nickel-containing pig iron is nearly... 29 Ten thousand tons, nearly a decrease from the peak period within the year. 20 Ten thousand tons—projected inventory levels are expected to continue declining in the future.

　　 Consumption increased slightly year-on-year, while global supply remains in surplus.

　　According to the International Nickel Study Group ( INSG ) The latest data shows that, 2015 Year 1 to 10 Global nickel supply is in surplus this month. 5.2 Ten thousand tons.

　　2015 Year 1 to 10 Month, global nickel ore production 173.2 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 2.5% Nickel ore production in the Asian region declined significantly year-on-year. 7.8% Among them, Indonesia’s production cut was the most significant. 2015 Year 1 to 10 Monthly production is only 10.8 10,000 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease. 33.9% Global intermediate nickel production 25.1 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 4.7% Global primary nickel production 162.8 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 2.0% 。

　　International Nickel Research Group (INSG) The data shows that, 2015 Year 1 to 10 Monthly global nickel consumption 157.6 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 1% The main consumer region, the European Union, saw a significant contraction in consumption, with year-on-year declines. 6% ; Asia, the world’s largest consumer region, continues to maintain growth, with an accelerating pace. 2.7% Asia remains the world’s primary region for consumption growth. By country, 2015 Year 1 to 10 China's nickel consumption for the month was 81.4 10,000 tons, an increase year-on-year. 3.3% ; U.S. consumption is 12.8 10,000 tons, an increase year-on-year. 2.1% ; Japan is 11.8 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 1.4% 。

　　According to the International Stainless Steel Forum ( ISSF ) the statistical data released, 2015 In the first three quarters of last year, global crude stainless steel production reached nearly... 3130 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 0.5% Among these, production in the Americas and mainland China increased, while production in several other major regions declined. It is estimated that... 2015 The growth rates of stainless steel production in Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, China, respectively, were... -1.6% 、 0.5% 、 -6.3% 、 7.8% and -0.7% ，2016 The year is expected to continue growing. 2015 Global primary nickel consumption in the stainless steel industry is estimated to be... 128 10,000 tons, slightly up year-on-year. 1.7% 。

　　According to data from Antaike, 2015 China's stainless steel production for the year was approximately 2144 10,000 tons, a slight year-on-year decrease. 2% Nevertheless, it still accounts for a global share of 52% Among them 300 The yield is 1050 10,000 tons, an increase year-on-year. 3%；200 is for 692 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 4%；400 is for 397 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 10% Calculate 2015 In China this year, the consumption of primary nickel in the stainless steel industry was... 78.8 10,000 tons, an increase year-on-year. 2.3% , low nickel prices have stimulated 300 The increase in stainless steel production.

　　(Xu Aidong, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.; Lou Yonggang, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association)