On January 30, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a press conference via video to release information on the economic performance of the nonferrous metals industry in 2023. Chen Xuesen, member of the Party Committee Standing Committee, Vice President, and Spokesperson of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, briefed the attendees on the economic performance of the nonferrous metals industry in 2023 and answered questions from media reporters and representatives from enterprises.
　　Chen Xuesen stated that the trend of steady and improving performance in the nonferrous metals industry is becoming increasingly evident. In 2023, the industrial value-added of nonferrous metal enterprises above a designated size grew by 7.4% over the previous year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous year and 2.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of industrial value-added for enterprises above a designated size nationwide. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the industrial value-added of nonferrous metal enterprises above a designated size has shown a steady recovery trend: specifically, it grew by 2.1% in 2020, 3.1% in 2021, 5.2% in 2022, and 7.4% in 2023.
　　In 2023, the operational characteristics of the nonferrous metals industry were specifically reflected in seven aspects:
　　First, the output of ten nonferrous metal products has surpassed the 70-million-ton mark for the first time. Preliminary statistics show that in 2023, China’s output of ten commonly used nonferrous metals reached 74.698 million tons, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year (calculated on a comparable basis; the same applies hereinafter). Among these, refined copper production totaled 12.99 million tons, up 13.5% year-on-year; primary aluminum production reached 41.59 million tons, up 3.7%; the output of six refined metal concentrates was 6.415 million tons, down 0.5% year-on-year; alumina production stood at 82.44 million tons, up 1.4%; copper product output—before deducting approximately 1.7 million tons of double-counted figures among enterprises—was 22.17 million tons, up 5%; and aluminum product output—before deducting approximately 14 million tons of double-counted figures among enterprises—was 63.034 million tons, with growth turning from a decline of 1.4% in the previous year to an increase of 5.7%. In 2023, the capacity utilization rate of the nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 79.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year and 4.2 percentage points higher than the national industrial manufacturing sector’s capacity utilization rate.
　　Second, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment reached a new high in nearly a decade. In 2023, the nonferrous metals industry saw its fixed-asset investment increase by 17.3% over the previous year, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous year’s growth rate and exceeding the national industrial fixed-asset investment growth rate by 8.3 percentage points. Specifically, fixed-asset investment in nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation rose by 42.7%, while fixed-asset investment in smelting, rolling, and processing increased by 12.5%. Investment in nonferrous metal materials required for photovoltaic, wind power, power and energy-storage batteries, and new-energy vehicles—as well as investment in nonferrous metal mines—experienced significant growth, serving as key drivers behind the robust expansion of fixed-asset investment in the nonferrous metals industry. Since the onset of the pandemic, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment in the nonferrous metals industry has risen steadily year after year: in 2020, the growth rate was -1%; in 2021, it was 4.1%; in 2022, it was 14.5%; and in 2023, it reached 17.3%, marking a new high in nearly a decade.
　　Third, imports of raw materials for nonferrous metal mines increased, while the decline in aluminum exports narrowed. In 2023, China’s total trade volume in nonferrous metals reached US$331.54 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year. Of this total, imports amounted to US$271.94 billion, an increase of 4.3%; exports totaled US$59.61 billion, down 9.8%. In 2023, the physical volume of copper concentrate imports was 27.536 million tons, an increase of 2.303 million tons, or 9.1%, over the previous year. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products totaled 5.48 million tons, down 360,000 tons, or 6.2%, from the previous year. The physical volume of bauxite imports reached 141.38 million tons, up 16.15 million tons, or 12.9%, compared to the previous year. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 5.675 million tons, down 919,000 tons, or 13.9%, from the previous year; however, the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first three quarters and by 6.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Rare-earth exports totaled 52,306.5 tons, up 3,578.7 tons, or 7.3%, from the previous year.
　　Fourth, prices of non-ferrous metal varieties are diverging. Specifically: First, the price fluctuations of major commonly used non-ferrous metals are smaller than those of new-energy metals. Among them, copper prices rose slightly year-on-year; the decline in aluminum prices continued to narrow; industrial silicon prices fell but showed signs of stabilizing by year-end; and battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropped sharply. Second, domestic market prices for major non-ferrous metals outperformed international market prices. In 2023, the average price of three-month copper contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.8% year-on-year, while the average price of three-month copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange fell by 3.2% year-on-year. The decline in the average price of three-month aluminum contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6.8 percentage points lower than that of the three-month aluminum contracts on the London Metal Exchange. Third, spot prices of major non-ferrous metals performed better than futures prices. In 2023, the average domestic spot price of copper was 1,051 yuan/ton higher than the average three-month copper contract price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the average domestic spot price of aluminum was 238 yuan/ton higher than the average three-month aluminum contract price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
　　Fifth, the profits of large-scale nonferrous metal enterprises have shifted from decline to growth. In 2023, the total profits of large-scale nonferrous metal industrial enterprises reached 371.61 billion yuan, an increase of 23.2% over the previous year. Among the annual profits, independent mining enterprises earned 78.57 billion yuan, up 8.1%; smelting enterprises earned 186.9 billion yuan, up 23.1%; and processing enterprises earned 106.15 billion yuan, up 37.6%. The cost and expenses per 100 yuan of operating revenue amounted to 94.64 yuan, down 0.31 yuan from the previous year.
　　Sixth, photovoltaic, wind power, new-energy vehicles, and power and energy-storage batteries have become the primary drivers of growth in nonferrous metal consumption. In 2023, China saw substantial increases in the production of photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, new-energy vehicles, power and energy-storage batteries, as well as in domestic installed capacity for new energy sources and exports of products from these sectors—making them key factors boosting the demand for nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc. According to estimates, in 2023, these industries consumed approximately 3 million tons of copper, a 52% increase over the previous year, accounting for roughly 19% of the nation's total copper consumption. They also consumed about 9 million tons of aluminum, up 50% from the previous year, representing around 20% of the nation's total aluminum consumption. Furthermore, galvanized steel consumption for wind-turbine tower sections, bolts, and other structural steel components, as well as for photovoltaic steel supports, reached approximately 700,000 tons—a 51% increase over the previous year, accounting for roughly 9% of the nation's total zinc consumption.
　　Seventh, Zijin Mining Group has, for the first time, surpassed one million tons in copper production from its mines. In recent years, China’s nonferrous metal enterprises have achieved remarkable results in both domestic and overseas resource development, with significant increases in the proven reserves and production volumes of key nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, cobalt, and lithium—both domestically and internationally. Among numerous Chinese companies, Zijin Mining Group was the first to reach an annual mine-produced copper output of 1.01 million tons in 2023. It is the only Chinese enterprise to have broken the one-million-ton mark in mine-produced copper, ranking among the global top five and entering the forefront of the world’s leading mining companies. This represents a historic breakthrough for China’s nonferrous metal mining enterprises in the global resource competition and marks the realization of a long-cherished development goal for the nonferrous metals industry.
　　Chen Xuesen stated that, based on the domestic and international macroeconomic environment—particularly the operational characteristics of the domestic and global nonferrous metals industry—and in conjunction with the “Triad” Prosperity Index report released by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, and assuming no “black swan” events occur, the following forecasts are made for the key indicators of the nonferrous metals industry in 2024:
　　In 2024, the value-added growth rate of the nonferrous metals industry is expected to remain above 5.5%, with potential for reaching 6%. According to the new statistical methodology, the output growth of the ten most commonly used nonferrous metals will stay around 5%. Consumption of nonferrous metals in the real estate sector is forecast to continue slowing down. However, sectors such as photovoltaics, wind power, power and energy-storage batteries, new-energy vehicles, and lightweighting of transportation vehicles will remain key drivers of nonferrous metal consumption growth. Fixed-asset investment growth in the nonferrous metals industry is expected to stabilize at around 10%. China's aluminum profile exports are likely to continue stabilizing, while imports of copper concentrate and bauxite will maintain steady growth. In the first quarter, nonferrous metal prices mainly fluctuated around current levels. In the second half of the year, copper and aluminum prices may see a slight rebound, and prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are expected to remain within a reasonable range.