According to a report by Mining.com, S&P Global’s latest analysis shows that in recent years, new gold discoveries worldwide have become increasingly rare and smaller in scale, casting a pessimistic outlook on the future supply of this metal.

　　A new report shows that since 2020, there have been only five major gold discoveries worldwide, adding 17 million ounces of new gold resources. The New York-based company defines a “major gold discovery” as one with resource reserves and past production totaling at least 2 million ounces.

　　According to S&P statistics, from 1990 to 2023, a total of 350 new gold deposits were discovered worldwide, with gold resources amounting to nearly 2.9 billion ounces. These newly discovered gold resources are 3% higher than the previous estimate for 2023, which had reported 345 gold deposits and gold resources totaling 2.81 billion ounces.

　　However, the S&P report points out that although the number of newly discovered gold mines and the volume of gold resources have increased, most of these gold mines were discovered more than 10 years ago, and only one project recently qualifies as a major discovery.

　　Compared to last year’s analysis, the five new discoveries updated in 2024 account for 22% of the newly identified resource volume of 79 million ounces.

　　S&P also noted that in recent years, the average size of new gold discoveries has declined to 3.5 million ounces, compared to an average of 5.5 million ounces between 2010 and 2019. In fact, over the past decade, none of the newly discovered deposits has made it into the global top 30 gold discoveries.

　　S&P analyst Paul Manalo agrees with industry consensus that the industry’s focus on older, well-known deposits has reduced the likelihood of discovering new deposits through greenfield exploration.

　　Manalo stated, “The lack of high-quality discoveries over the past decade is not a good sign for the future supply of gold.”

　　“According to the latest monthly gold commodity briefing, we believe that gold supply will peak at 110 million ounces in 2026, with the increase coming primarily from Australia, Canada, and the United States—countries that have recently made the most significant gold discoveries.”

　　He predicts that global gold production will fall to 103 million ounces by 2028, due to declining gold output in these countries.