According to MiningWeekly, citing Reuters, a research report released on Wednesday by the Cobalt Institute forecasts that cobalt demand will grow faster than supply, leading to a gradual easing of the cobalt surplus by 2024 and a shift toward a shortage in the early 2030s. The report was prepared by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.

In the short term, the future of the cobalt market will hinge on developments in the Democratic Republic of Congo—the world’s largest cobalt producer. At the end of February, the country decided to impose a temporary four-month export ban. Looking ahead over the longer term, global cobalt supply is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5% over the next few years. As a result, the DRC’s share of the global market will decline from last year’s 76% to 65% by 2030. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s cobalt production will rise rapidly, increasing its share from 12% to 22%. Global cobalt demand (excluding government stockpiles) is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7%, reaching 400,000 tons by the early 2030s.