The meeting noted that the global economy is currently maintaining a moderate, low-speed “mediocre” growth trend, continuing to be in a period of slow recovery and profound structural adjustment. Growth rates are significantly lower than expected, and major economies are showing distinct divergent trends.

Recently, the China Institute of Land and Resources Economics convened a symposium in Beijing to analyze the mineral resource situation for the first three quarters of 2015. Experts and scholars discussed and analyzed current domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, exploration, development, and investment in mineral resources, supply-and-demand trends and prices of major mineral products, as well as development trends in the mineral resource market and related strategies.

　　The meeting concluded that the global economy is currently experiencing a moderate, low-speed “mediocre” growth trajectory, remaining in a period of slow recovery and profound structural adjustment. Growth rates are significantly lower than expected, and major economies are showing clear signs of divergence. The global mining sector continues to be on a downward trend, with weak demand for key mineral products, ongoing release of excess capacity, and persistently declining prices. It is anticipated that the global mining industry will remain in a cold winter phase over the next two years, and a full recovery will take considerable time. Under the “new normal,” China’s demand for major mineral resources is shifting from rapid, comprehensive growth to differentiated growth at medium-to-low speeds. The structure of resource demand is undergoing significant changes, supply patterns will also undergo important transformations, and the spatial structure of resource utilization is undergoing a shift.

　　In the energy sector, the global oil market continues to experience a supply-demand imbalance, with demand growth showing signs of rebound and oil prices beginning to stabilize at lower levels. However, both major international oil companies and China’s three largest domestic oil firms have seen a significant decline in performance, with profits severely eroded. Major oil-producing countries are now adjusting their policies to cope with the deep plunge in oil prices. Domestically, coal demand continues to shrink, and the issue of overcapacity has become particularly prominent, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. Inventory levels remain persistently high, prices have plummeted sharply, and the market sentiment index remains sluggish. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, coal resource exploration and development should focus on “five key initiatives and five fundamental shifts.”

　　In the steel sector, market demand remains weak, and the global oversupply of iron ore has further intensified. The phenomenon of rising costs outpacing prices has yet to undergo any fundamental shift, putting increasing pressure on domestic mining companies to survive. It is expected that future demand for iron ore will continue to weaken, and the trend of supply exceeding demand is unlikely to improve in the short term. As a result, the market will enter a phase of prolonged equilibrium characterized by oversupply. Demand for non-ferrous metals remains sluggish, with production at most mines continuing to decline. Meanwhile, the continued appreciation of the U.S. dollar is exerting further downward pressure on metal prices, causing the prices of major non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc to approach or even fall below their cost levels, thereby creating significant operational difficulties for state-owned key enterprises.

　　In short, while positive factors in the mining market are steadily accumulating, negative factors have yet to be fully released, and a full recovery of the mining market will still take time. Only when excess capacity is thoroughly resolved will the mining market finally usher in a springtime revival.