Assess new market trends
Release time:
2016-01-20
Source:
2014 Year 7 This month, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced: unnecessary professional qualification certifications will be canceled, with the first batch already being removed. 11 Regarding professional qualification certification, it is strictly prohibited to illegally designate competency-based professional qualifications as administrative licenses and link them to employment and entrepreneurship. To date, these have been abolished. 211 Among the professional qualifications is also the Certified Asset Appraiser.
Our Golden Age
2001 Year to 2010 The year can be described as the golden age for assessment agencies. 10 Year. The cornerstone of the appraisal industry is the State Council. 91 The "Administrative Measures for the Assessment of State-Owned Assets" were issued at a time when all entities subject to assessment were state-owned asset holders. Subsequently, with the introduction of one policy and regulation after another, the scope of business has expanded year by year.
2001 Year 12 Moon 31 Day, Ministry of Finance Order No. 14 The “Regulations on Several Issues Concerning the Management of State-owned Asset Valuation” have been issued, and private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises that engage in joint ventures, cooperation, or transactions with state-owned enterprises have also begun to become our valuation subjects.
2003 Year 12 Moon 31 Day, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Ministry of Finance Order No. 3 The "Interim Measures for the Administration of Transfer of State-owned Equity in Enterprises" strengthens the aforementioned rules and introduces the economic role of equity exchanges.
2005 Year 8 Moon 25 Day, Order No. of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council 12 The "Interim Measures for the Management of Asset Valuation of State-Owned Enterprises" further elevates the asset valuation industry to a higher level, and the role of the asset valuation industry in the mission of supervising and managing state-owned assets is becoming increasingly significant.
2006 Year 8 Moon 9 Day, Order of Six Ministries Including the Ministry of Commerce 2006 Year No. 10 The “Regulations on the Merger and Acquisition of Domestic Enterprises by Foreign Investors” have been promulgated. From now on, appraisers will undoubtedly play an indispensable role in mergers and acquisitions involving foreign investors in China.
2006 China has introduced brand-new accounting standards that fully adopt the concept of fair value, providing appraisers with an entirely new field: valuation for financial reporting purposes.
2009 Annual Finance and Taxation ( 2009 ) 59 The “Notice on Several Issues Concerning the Corporate Income Tax Treatment of Enterprise Restructuring Operations” has ended the preferential corporate income tax treatment for internal restructuring among foreign investors, bringing internal restructuring of foreign-invested enterprises under the purview of asset appraisers.
Appraisers Enter an Era of Uncertainty
What is uncertainty? Economist Mr. Zhou Qiren offers a definition: Uncertainty is the inability to predict the probability of a particular event occurring in the future based on past experience. Indeed, the government’s strong support, yesterday’s glorious state of the appraisal industry, and even the regulated economy—all of these could cease to exist.
The loss of glory is not an improbable event in the long river of history. During the Jurassic period—a geological era—just how mighty were the dinosaurs? Despite their heavy bodies and ponderous minds, they ultimately failed to survive that geological epoch. When the Jurassic period came to an end, the dinosaurs were gone.
The cruel truth is that, in the course of policy changes, some of us may be left behind—this is simply a natural consequence dictated by the normal distribution, a result of the law of large numbers. No group can escape this reality. Beyond sticking to our original choices, there’s another option: to make our own decisions based on our own capabilities and our position in the market.
Why can it be more, and why can it be less?
I believe that, against the backdrop of diminishing government support, we should: first, take a cautious approach to new economic ventures with so few market transactions that they cannot establish market prices—thus reducing our involvement in such ventures; second, avoid participating heavily in assets that possess strong specific characteristics but weak generic attributes; third, actively engage more in those assets subject to regulatory requirements; and fourth, increase our involvement in derivative products stemming from traditional businesses.
The two categories of activities that are recommended to participate in less share a common characteristic: they involve few actual transactions, resulting in limited transaction prices and making it difficult to identify their underlying commonalities and patterns. Some say: “Even with few prices, we can still assess value.” The founding master of economics, Alfred Marshall, once said... 1890 In his 19th-century work, "Principles of Economics," he argued that in the real world, there is never such a thing as "value"—there are only prices. Today, most branches of the classical economic school in the West have inherited this concept; even when they speak of "value," they are merely using it as an alternative term for "price."
Under what circumstances, when there’s no price available, is it still necessary for someone to estimate a value in order to make decisions? This only happens under strong government regulation. Otherwise, such businesses would be few and far between, and investing significant effort into research might not even recover the costs.
Of course, some people also believe that Marshall’s theory of equilibrium price, while pointing out certain phenomena and problems in the capitalist market economy, ... , However, its essence is unscientific.
Marshall substituted the concept of “price” for that of “value,” thereby denying that labor creates value. , The flaw in this view—by disrupting the perfect curve described by Marx, in which prices fluctuate around value—is all too obvious. Those who agree with this argument can sharply criticize Marshall’s above-mentioned points and take the opposite stance instead.
Since projects with stringent regulatory backgrounds tend to attract fewer participants, why does Article 3 state that “where there are regulatory requirements, participation should be increased”? The reason is that some regulations emerge spontaneously during the evolution of the market—and one such regulation closely relevant to us is accounting standards. Currently, among accounting standards, one set of guidelines—specifically, the six standards under “Fair Value”—imposes requirements on valuation techniques. These guidelines cover the following areas: “Inventories,” “Investment Property,” “Impairment of Assets,” “Share-Based Payment,” “Business Combinations,” and “Recognition and Measurement of Financial Instruments.”
Accounting standards themselves are the embodiment of accounting regulatory attributes. Currently, these valuation efforts do entail additional costs for businesses. However, given the regulatory nature of accounting standards, once the guidelines are established, the costs associated with all necessary procedures and steps should already be factored into the company’s budget—and companies are not permitted to negotiate or haggle over these costs. Rest assured: businesses will gradually become more accustomed to this process, and budgets allocated for such activities will continue to grow.
Let’s talk again about derivative businesses stemming from our traditional operations. This is because we can leverage our years of experience. My advice is this: No matter what you’re doing, always build upon what you already have, and then stretch just a bit higher to reach for what you don’t yet possess.
Scaling up may be a market misconception.
The logic of industrial society is scale—when it comes to beverages, you go for Coca-Cola and sell a single can of soda all over the world.
Because scale is what generates efficiency—this is a fundamental law of industry. But this is not the rule for evaluating services.
In the context of government services, assessment services are more akin to economies of scope and economies of differentiation—they can achieve value-added through a wide variety of offerings within a relatively small scope, much like... HelloKitty It can't be sold to everyone—only girls of a certain age and from a specific culture would like it. HelloKitty Not only do we sell kittens, but we also offer a variety of licenses for many products.
Assessment services enable appraisers to connect with a broad spectrum of society and a diverse client base, while the evaluation system itself becomes niche and multifaceted. In large-scale industries, there’s often only one upward path, forcing participants to keep climbing ever higher—and sometimes even stepping on the feet of their peers, who have different characteristics. In contrast, in niche and diversified industries, market opportunities abound precisely at the intersections, the points of connection, and the moments of hybridization. Each project an appraiser undertakes is rooted in shared professional experience and carries forward a legacy; as for client relationships, they can be either long-term or fleeting. All you need to do is win over just a small segment—or even a tiny fraction—of the market, and by searching diligently within the vast marketplace for the part that truly resonates with you, you can unlock immense market potential.
Given the critical role appraisers play in China’s economic activities, it’s only natural that there will always be clients who attempt to manipulate appraisal results by influencing appraisers. However, as long as you still have even a small group of clients who genuinely like you, you’ll naturally have the confidence to say no to those who try to exert undue influence. Independence is precisely the quality of being unwilling to be manipulated; freedom, on the other hand, is the space that allows you to continue thriving and living well—even after saying no. In the future, appraisers may become an even more niche profession: we’ll simply have to keep attracting those who like us and letting those who don’t continue disliking us.