The Central Economic Work Conference held last week pointed out that a prominent issue currently facing China’s economic operation is overcapacity. “ Reduce overcapacity ” It is not only the top priority among the five major tasks for next year’s economic work, but also a severe challenge facing the advancement of supply-side reform.

　　Previously, the author published an article proposing... “ Mineral exploration also requires vigilance. ‘ Product ’ Backlog ” In fact, today’s mineral exploration is not only fraught with... “ Product ” The backlog of issues is also accompanied by overcapacity.

　　For years, perhaps many people have never even considered that mineral exploration could actually suffer from overcapacity. Therefore, “ Mineral exploration urgently needs to be strengthened. ” It is often a common phrase used in advice from experts and scholars, strategic discussions and analyses, and calls in newspaper articles.

　　In fact, China’s mineral exploration has gone through at least two rounds. “ Production capacity ” Surplus. Last century 60 In the early years of the decade, the country could no longer afford to maintain an excessively large geological workforce. As a result, geological exploration teams were merged and reorganized, and a large number of employees were reassigned to their hometowns to engage in agricultural work. 1996 Year～ 2003 That year, the geological exploration teams once again found themselves in dire straits, with large numbers of workers laid off and struggling to make a living through diversified operations. That... “ Production capacity ” The predicament of oversupply remains vividly etched in my memory to this day.

　　However, historically... “ Production capacity ” The predicament of overcapacity seems to have been forgotten, overshadowed by subsequent prosperity. 2004 After the mining boom kicked in, mineral prices soared, and mineral exploration activities flourished. It was not uncommon for a geological survey institute to have dozens of exploration projects underway, or for a single geological engineer to be simultaneously working on multiple projects. Geological survey units purchased large numbers of advanced drilling rigs, both domestic and foreign, and continuously upgraded their geophysical and analytical testing equipment. As a result, the income of employees at geological survey units became one of the fastest-growing sectors, while graduates from geological universities also found themselves in high demand. “ High-demand item ”， “ The Spring of Geological Work ” It seems like an eternal spring. Little do we know, however, that mineral exploration... “ Production capacity ” Rapid expansion that outpaces demand growth has already laid the groundwork for hidden risks.

　　Without foresight, one is bound to face immediate worries. Overcapacity related to raw materials at home is intensifying, and the cyclical downturn in the global mining industry has arrived as expected. Mining companies have drastically slashed their exploration budgets, investors are staying away from high-risk prospecting ventures, government funding no longer supports commercial exploration activities, and public-interest geological surveys are prohibited from conducting drilling operations. As a result, the mineral exploration market has experienced a precipitous plunge—from... 2013 Since [year], has been continuously 3 Year-on-year decline, 2016 The number will definitely continue to decline this year.

　　In the mineral exploration industry, due to... “ Product ” Backlogs are insidious. “ Production capacity ” Overcapacity tends to be lagged, and coupled with the large-scale investments made by national and local governments in exploration projects over the past period, 2013 Year～ 2014 Some outstanding projects from the year also masked certain contradictions, often leading people to... “ Production capacity ” Excess lowers vigilance. But... 2015 In that year, the scene of hardship had already come to light.

　　Although China does not yet have any survey or research reports evaluating the capacity of mineral exploration, the country generally uses capacity utilization rate or equipment utilization rate as indicators to assess whether production capacity is excessive. The start-up rate is below... 79% then it indicates that overcapacity already exists. But from... 2012 Year～ 2015 Judging from the decline in annual investment in solid mineral exploration and the drop in actual drilling work volume, China has already entered a phase of mineral exploration. “ Production capacity ” Overabundance. And a thousand teams in a hundred games. “ Small but complete ” The converging industrial structure and institutional factors that weaken competitiveness and innovation will further exacerbate mineral exploration. “ Production capacity ” Surplus.

　　Facing 2016 The trend of continued decline in both domestic and international exploration markets, mineral exploration. “ Production capacity ” Surpluses will continue to develop—twice in history. “ Production capacity ” The pain of overcapacity may once again weigh heavily on geological exploration units. This is a reality that cannot be avoided.

　　Currently, the nation “ Reduce overcapacity ” The bugle has sounded, and in this tough battle, mineral exploration clearly cannot afford to be absent. We must make good use of the national policies and support aimed at addressing overcapacity, seize the opportunities, proactively streamline our operations, preserve our elite capabilities, and go global—thus preparing ourselves for the next upswing in the mining industry.