In recent years, against the backdrop of global climate change emerging as a mainstream international issue, energy transition—primarily characterized by the vigorous development of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels—has become an important component of many countries’ energy policies. However, ambitious development goals can hardly conceal the difficulties inherent in the energy transition process. Under these circumstances, it is highly necessary to deeply reflect on China’s current practices in renewable energy development under multiple competing objectives, so as to ensure the smooth advancement of China’s energy transition in the future.

　　The current energy transition in China faces unprecedented difficulties and complexities.

　　Compared with other major global economies and major energy-consuming countries, China’s energy transition may be the most challenging and complex. Broadly speaking, there are four major difficulties in China’s energy transition:

　　First, China has become the world’s largest energy consumer. According to... BP Data calculations for global energy statistics, 2014 In [year], China's primary energy consumption was... 29.72 100 million tons of oil equivalent, equivalent to Germany's 9.6 Twice, Japan's 6.5 Twice, of the United Kingdom 15.8 Twice.

　　Second, total energy consumption is still in a phase of growth. China’s industrialization and urbanization are both far from complete, meaning that total energy consumption will continue to grow for some time to come. By contrast, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and other post-industrialized countries have already entered a phase of declining total energy consumption.

　　Third, the structure of energy consumption is unreasonable. Coal accounts for an extremely high share. 2014 In that year, coal accounted for a share of China's primary energy consumption of: 66% , second only to South Africa worldwide ( 70.6% ), which is the global average ( 30% more than twice that of; and as for “ Clean energy ” The share of natural gas is very low, accounting for only 5.6% is among the lowest in the world, while the global average is 23.7% 。

　　Fourth, there is significant pressure and a tight timeline for carbon reduction. 2014 This year, China's carbon dioxide emissions were... 97.6 100 million tons, ranking first globally. 2000 year to 2014 Year, annual average growth of carbon dioxide emissions 7.6% 。2014 Year 11 In the U.S.-China Joint Statement on Climate Change, China pledged to— 2030 Annual carbon emissions have reached their peak. Although the rate of increase in carbon emissions has accelerated its slowdown in recent years. 2009 year to 2014 The average annual growth rate of emissions is 4% ), yet it will take only fifteen to sixteen years for growth from its current positive level to reach zero growth. In short, whether viewed from the scale of energy consumption, the pace of growing energy demand, or the composition of the energy mix and carbon reduction targets, China’s energy transition will face unprecedented challenges—challenges that other countries can hardly even imagine.

　　The primary obstacle hindering the advancement of China's current energy transition.

　　The above “ Four Difficulties ” Of course, this will increase the difficulty of China’s energy transition, but it is not the primary obstacle hindering the proper advancement of China’s energy transition. At present, the foremost challenge to China’s energy transition lies in the fact that industry, academia, and practical operational sectors—each to varying degrees—tend to adopt a simplistic and formulaic understanding of the energy transition. Under the influence of this mindset and these perceptions, the obstacles impeding China’s shift toward renewable energy primarily manifest themselves in three key areas:

　　First, the energy transition has been reduced to a mere... “ Increase the share of renewable energy. ” The issue is that the advancement of the energy transition is also simply attributed entirely to the government. “ Determination ” It seems that as long as government policies are strong and subsidies are adequately provided, the energy transition can succeed. But in reality, massive subsidies have become a burden that governments can no longer afford. For example, Germany’s transition to renewable energy... “ Model student ” At the same time, the scale of renewable energy subsidies being paid out is enormous. According to estimates by relevant scholars, just... 2013 In that year, Germany’s direct subsidies for renewable energy reached 180 Hundreds of millions of euros. 2013 Last year, Germany’s Minister of the Environment stated that if the project’s scale is not reduced, Germany’s... “ Green Revolution ” In the future 20 The annual cost will reach 1 Trillion euros (excluding the hundreds of billions of euros already spent). Siemens estimates that... 2050 The direct costs of the annual energy transition policy will reach 4.5 One trillion dollars, equivalent to Germany. 50 Year GDP The sum of 2.5% Therefore, recently the domestic industry has sparked a debate over whether China’s development of renewable energy can afford its hefty subsidies.

　　Second, the prevailing view today tends to regard the cost competitiveness of renewable energy as the key issue in the transition to renewables, holding that once the costs of wind and solar power further decline to a level where they can compete with conventional energy sources, the challenges facing the transition to renewables will naturally be resolved. However, the real crux of the transition to renewables is not a matter of cost—and neither are Germany’s current energy-transition challenges primarily caused by the high costs of wind and solar power. In fact, onshore wind power, given its currently favorable wind resource conditions, already has costs competitive enough to rival those of fossil-fuel power plants. Moreover, when external costs associated with fossil fuels are taken into account, the costs of wind and solar power have already fallen below those of fossil-fuel power generation. Of course, at present, no country worldwide has yet established a system based on... “ Full cost ” the electricity trading market—but this indicates that wind and photovoltaic power generation have already established the technological and cost foundations necessary to compete with fossil fuels.

　　Third, the long-term nature and complexity of the energy transition have not been properly understood or given sufficient attention. Throughout human history, energy transitions have generally taken considerable time: for example, the shift from wood fuel to coal as the dominant energy source took... 140 Around the year, oil surpassed coal to become the dominant energy source. 90 Around the year [year]. Due to limitations in energy density, resource location, and conversion efficiency of resource utilization, it is inevitable that renewable energy will take longer to replace fossil fuels. For example, from... 19 Century 70 From the late 19th century, when France first began generating electricity using hydro turbines, to the present day, it has undergone... 130 For many years, hydropower has accounted for only a small share of global primary energy consumption. 6% Left and right. 20 Century 30 Wind turbine power generation of the era, 60 Since the advent of photovoltaic power generation, wind power and photovoltaic power currently account for only a small share of global primary energy sources. 2% A bit more. However, in practice, the long-term nature and complexity of the energy transition have not served as a driving force for us to conduct comprehensive and in-depth research on it; rather, they have been used by certain market players—those reluctant to advance the energy transition—as an excuse to delay the transition process.

　　It can be argued that the lack of in-depth research and profound understanding of the specific historical processes underlying the energy transition is what leads to a simplistic comprehension of the energy transition. This, in turn, results in a deficiency in strategic thinking in China’s current energy-transition practices and an inability to effectively address the primary contradictions in policy responses, thereby leading to... “ Treat the headache by treating the head. ” Even “ Treat the foot for a headache. ” an important reason.

　　A comprehensive understanding of the essence of the energy transition is a prerequisite for effectively advancing the transition.

　　In short, the energy transition typically involves a shift in the dominant role of primary energy sources. “ New ” Energy replacement “ Old ” Energy sources, such as coal replacing firewood, oil replacing coal, and the ongoing transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. However, “ New ” The increase in the share of renewable energy is merely a superficial manifestation of the energy transition—or, more precisely, simply a natural outcome of a successful energy transition. For any given country, a comprehensive understanding of the essence of the energy transition is essential for formulating the right energy-transition strategy and serves as the prerequisite for ensuring the smooth advancement of the energy transition. From the broader context of today’s global energy transition, we should at least grasp the current energy transitions being pursued by many countries from the following three perspectives:

　　First, the energy transition is by no means simply a matter of increasing the share of renewable or non-fossil energy sources within the existing energy system; more importantly, it calls for structural changes to the energy system itself. In other words, the current energy system—particularly the power system—which is entirely intertwined with the characteristics of fossil fuels—must undergo transformation to accommodate the distributed and low-power nature of renewable energy sources. Without adaptive changes to the energy system, especially the power system, the existing energy system has only very limited capacity to support the development of renewable energy. The rapid growth of renewable energy in Germany over the past decade—and beyond the well-known strong government policy support—has been critically underpinned by legal mandates compelling grid operators to adapt their systems to the needs of renewable energy development. It is thus evident that treating the transformation of the energy system as a core requirement of the energy transition is essential for accurately and objectively understanding the right approach and true potential for renewable energy development.

　　Second, each energy transition involves a realignment of vested interests and inevitably gives rise to both losers and winners. As oil gradually replaces coal, oil suppliers and related enterprises thrive, while some coal suppliers and related businesses go bankrupt. As renewable energy increasingly replaces fossil fuels, competition between renewable energy companies and fossil fuel companies will intensify. In this context, if the government fails to correctly grasp the overall direction of the energy transition and the resulting realignment of interests—or if it is influenced by... “ Old energy ” The group’s lobbying could lead to the introduction of policies that hinder the energy transition. For example, 19 At the beginning of the century, when Dutch tradition dominated energy. “ Peat ” When its coal consumption was threatened by higher-calorie imported coal, the Dutch government adopted various measures—including imposing tariffs on coal imports—to protect its domestic peat industry. As a result, not only was the transition of the Dutch energy system toward coal delayed, but the already-declining Dutch economy was further exacerbated.

　　Finally, we must have a clear understanding of and pay sufficient attention to the long-term nature and complexity of the current energy transition. Looking at the history of energy transitions, it typically takes decades—or even over a century—for one energy source to replace another and achieve dominance. The current energy transition primarily involves the substitution of renewable energy sources for fossil fuels. In a broader sense, this can also be seen as a shift from non-fossil energy sources to fossil fuels. Compared with past energy transitions, today’s transition is both longer in duration and more complex.

　　From a long-term perspective, renewable energy sources—being the mainstay of alternative energy—do not have any advantages over fossil fuels they are replacing, either in terms of energy density or in terms of utilization costs. From a complexity standpoint, renewable energy is a collection of multiple varieties; none of these individual energy types alone is capable of becoming the sole dominant energy source. “ Potential ” Moreover, the technical characteristics of these renewable energy sources are not entirely identical. Hydropower is essentially compatible with existing energy systems, while wind and solar energy are more suited for distributed, low-power applications. Biomass energy, on the other hand, can be deployed either in a distributed or centralized manner. To integrate these energy utilization technologies into a cohesive whole... “ New ” The energy system will face increasing complexity in technological, organizational, and institutional aspects. In response, government policy-making and implementation agencies should attach great importance to this issue.

　　(The author is the Director of the Energy Economics Research Office at the Institute of Industrial Economy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and a contributing writer.)