In recent years, there’s been a notion frequently mentioned within the rare-earth industry— “ Alternative ” It is often said that rare-earth materials are being replaced by other materials, or that rare-earth materials or rare-earth application technologies are replacing other materials and technologies. How we should evaluate the substitution—or being substituted—of rare-earth materials and technologies, and what corresponding effects this may have, are the topics to be analyzed and discussed below.

　　 First, the history of engineering and technology is a history of technological innovation and progress—a history marked by the replacement of old technologies, materials, and products with new ones, new materials, and new products.

　　Looking at the historical development of human civilization, the substitutions mentioned above have been underway for thousands of years—for instance, bronze tools replaced stone tools, and iron tools in turn replaced bronze tools. In modern and contemporary times, these substitutions have become increasingly pronounced and accelerated, and the cycle of substitution and being substituted will continue endlessly. Generally speaking, such material or technological substitutions arise from advances in science and technology, leading to improved performance, more favorable cost-effectiveness, and reduced consumption of resources or energy.

　　Technological and product substitution can be categorized into three types. The first type is... System replacement or comprehensive replacement For example, railway traction has evolved from steam to diesel engines and then to electric vehicles; the second type is... Improved alternative For example, fuel consumption in automobile engines has gradually decreased thanks to technological advancements; the third type is what’s known as... Disruptive alternative or innovation such as the replacement of film cameras by digital photography technology, and so forth.

　　The development of new rare-earth materials—particularly the four major categories of permanent magnets and luminescent materials—provides the most compelling evidence for the aforementioned viewpoint. Let’s start by discussing luminescent materials. 1964 Yttrium vanadate activated by europium ( YVO4： Eu3+ ) was introduced, serving as the red pigment for color TVs and effectively addressing the long-standing issue of poor red-pigment performance in color TV powders, which had led to severe color distortion on TV screens. From then on, colorful televisions that were pleasing to the eye replaced black-and-white TVs, allowing people to share in a visual feast of artistic brilliance. 1973 The launch of rare-earth-based trichromatic phosphors, which have gradually matured in recent years, dates back to that year. LED Technology has ushered humanity into a new era of low-consumption, high-efficiency lighting and display. And... 1983 The third-generation rare-earth permanent magnet neodymium-iron-boron, successfully developed this year, has a magnetic energy product that is [value] times that of ferrite magnets. 6-10 It is known as the "Magnetic King." It not only replaces other existing magnetic materials but also boasts a magnetic energy product that is difficult for other materials to match, along with outstanding cost-performance ratio, making it ideal for numerous electromagnetic applications such as motors... HDDR 、 MRI 、 EPS It achieves both lightweight design and high performance. A hybrid vehicle that uses a rare-earth permanent magnet motor and rare-earth nickel-hydrogen batteries... HEV ), average fuel consumption decreases 20%-40% For example, the third-generation Prius boasts a fuel consumption as low as... 2.63 rise / 100 kilometers, whereas vehicles of the same type typically are... 6.3 rise / Per 100 kilometers. The same holds true for hydrogen-storage materials, catalytic materials, and various other rare-earth functional materials—all of which have either disrupted or innovatively replaced existing technologies or products. This represents a triumph of the negation of the negation—a repeated leap forward in our brilliant industrial civilization.

　 II. Substitution Trends in Macroeconomic Development and Their Impact on the Rare Earth Industry

　　The development of the macroeconomy is characterized by the following six trends:

　　1、 Consumption has become the primary driver of economic growth, replacing investment. . As 2011 In China this year, the contribution rate of final consumption to the economy was... 55%，2012 Year for 51.8% ，2014 Exceeds the year 50% , to GDP Its contribution rate also exceeds 50%.

　　2、 The process of replacing foreign demand with domestic demand is accelerating. , such as 1906 China's dependence on foreign trade this year 65.2% , and 2012 Year for 47%，2014 Annual renewal reduced to 41.5% 。

　　3、 The service sector is growing faster than the primary and secondary sectors. However, the share of China’s tertiary sector remains lower than that of developed countries.

　　4、 The shift from a high-carbon economy to a low-carbon economy has become the primary goal for restructuring industrial sectors. The low-carbon and circular economies are calling for the introduction of new technologies, new products, and even entirely new business models. 。

　　5、 Urbanization and industrialization bring more business opportunities and markets. 。

　　6、 Emerging technologies and industries, represented by information technology, are partially replacing traditional technologies and industries. Moreover, the former often enhances the latter and places higher demands on new materials, new technologies, and new equipment. 。

Faced with the six major macroeconomic development trends outlined above, the rare-earth industry should seize opportunities amid challenges and strive for progress amid difficulties. It must proactively explore and cultivate new markets, regain lost market share, and better position itself to find room for survival and growth in the process of economic transformation and upgrading—as well as in the substitution, iteration, and transformation of traditional industries by high-tech innovations. For example, in the future, greater emphasis should be placed on the application of rare-earth raw materials in next-generation information technology, with a strong focus on expanding their use in fields such as robotics, CNC machine tools, rail transit, marine engineering equipment, and agricultural machinery. This will help broaden the industry’s reach and enhance its competitiveness. 3C Increase consumption of consumer electronic products and other civilian information technology goods, consolidate the achievements made in new energy and new-energy vehicles, research and develop high-performance rare-earth new materials at competitive prices, and explore new applications in bioengineering, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals—particularly topical medications.

　 　III. Rare Earths in the Development and Advancement of High Technology / Played an important role in product substitution.

1794 Since the Finnish chemist Gadolin discovered rare earth elements in the year, rare earths have... “ Hidden in the deep chambers, unknown to the world. ” From initial application to playing a significant role, up to now there has been... 221 It has a history of years. 1891 The earliest—or rather, the most rudimentary—application of rare earth elements and thorium was in kerosene lamp shades. In the following two decades or so, ignition alloys and arc lamps used for film projection were also introduced. 1947 The use of cerium in ductile iron represents a milestone invention in the history of casting. However, its true application in modern engineering materials only began in the last century. 60 Since the beginning of the era, the main representative products have been high-end optical glass containing lanthanum, as well as... SmCo5 The magnet—this magnet’s application has enabled the lightweighting and precision enhancement of guidance systems for medium- and large-sized rockets. And thereafter, each... 10 Around the same time, an important new rare-earth material emerged, such as... 1970 of the year LaNi5，1983 neodymium-iron-boron magnet of the year, 1996 The white light of the year LED Wait a minute. These new rare-earth materials and technologies, by replacing existing materials and technologies, have repeatedly set new records for product performance indicators throughout the history of functional and structural materials, and have driven a comprehensive enhancement in the performance of related components and entire devices. This has enabled advancements in motors, displays, rechargeable batteries, and more. 3C New products, such as those represented by our offerings, are continuously evolving toward lighter weight, higher performance, greater efficiency, and lower energy consumption.

　 　IV. The Status of Implementation of Substitution Strategies and Measures for Rare and Rare-Earth Resources by Various Countries

　　For many years, developed countries have attached great importance to formulating strategies and measures for substituting rare and rare-earth resources, and have stepped up efforts to implement these measures. For example, Japan’s key substitution initiatives in this area include the following: In the field of electronic materials, emphasis is placed on using zinc to replace indium in the production of transparent electrodes; searching for alternative materials to gallium and tin; in the catalyst sector, replacing platinum with organometallic compounds; and partially substituting tungsten with titanium in cutting tools. As for rare-earth substitutes, Japan is focusing on replacing or reducing the use of dysprosium in neodymium-iron-boron magnets, as well as substituting terbium in luminescent materials. 2007 In Japan, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry have proposed... “ Elemental Strategic Plan ”， “ Rare metal alternative materials ” Plan. 2011 Last year, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry issued to the business community. 421 A subsidy of 100 million yen will be allocated for the development of rare-earth reduction technologies and rare-earth recycling technologies. 110 of the company 160 One project benefits. 2013 Year 9 In the month, Japan’s Ministry of Education and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry jointly launched a supercomputer. “ Beijing ” The study explores using stable, naturally occurring resources—such as sodium, silicon, and calcium—to replace rare earth elements in the production of new materials with identical or similar performance characteristics. 20 Common elements with abundant reserves. Universities such as Tongji University and other research institutions. 2500 People are involved in research and development. Countries such as the United States and Germany also have similar projects and substantial investments.

From the perspective of the effectiveness of rare-earth substitution, 2011 In Japan, the University of Tokyo has developed rare-earth-free high-performance permanent magnets that can be used in hybrid vehicles and home appliances. 2012 Year 5 In the month, Japan’s Shin-Etsu Chemical announced that the dysprosium-doping process has been successfully applied to neodymium-iron-boron materials, halving the amount of dysprosium required for rare-earth permanent magnets used in air conditioners; meanwhile, the U.S. Molybdenum Company and... BoulderWild The company has developed wind turbines that use little or no dysprosium.

　 　V. The need to substitute other rare metals is more urgent than that for rare earths.

　　People often talk about how rare rare-earth elements are and emphasize the importance of finding substitutes for them. In fact, rare-earth elements aren't actually that scarce—there are plenty of resources that are far more precious and in even shorter supply. “ You can't see the true face of Mount Lu because you're right here in the mountain itself. ” As insiders in the rare-earth industry—and indeed as many fans who care about rare earths—should know, the resources that truly call for substitution are not rare earths themselves, but rather other rare metals such as indium, antimony, bismuth, germanium, tin, and gallium. Although these rare metals aren't as scarce or expensive as precious metals like platinum, rhodium, and palladium, their global reserves are still significantly lower than those of rare earths. Their abundance values are as follows: ( PPM ) : Indium 0.049 Antimony 0.2 bismuth 0.048 , germanium 1.8 , tin 2.2 Gallium 18 The best illustration of this issue is the lithium resource used in today’s most popular lithium-ion batteries—the abundance of lithium is merely... 20ppm So, what about rare earths? Cerium. + Lanthanum + Neodymium + Praseodymium =68 + 32 + 38 + 9.5 = 147.5 , is the abundance of lithium. 7.37 times. Also, lead—a material many of you are familiar with—might seem abundant, but in reality, its abundance is only 14ppm and the abundance of neodymium is 38 So, who would have thought that lead is actually rarer than neodymium? Meanwhile, platinum, rhodium, and palladium are respectively... 0.003，0.0002，0.0006 The low-abundance element holmium in rare earths is... 1.4 , terbium is 1.1 The abundance of terbium is that of rhodium. 5500 Multiple times. Of course, the above data represent the abundances of various elements in the continental crust. Resources in the upper crust are relatively easier to extract, and for many elements, the distribution in the continental crust and the lower continental crust differs only slightly from that in the upper crust.

　　Looking again at several resources commonly used in modern engineering materials, their recoverable lifetimes are significantly shorter than the recoverable reserves of rare earth elements—this is a basic fact that is all too easily overlooked. For example, the recoverable lifetime of indium is... 10 Year, platinum for 15 Year, tungsten for 23 year, while antimony only has 5 Year after year, it’s truly incredible. Of course, there are still many other elements involved, and the mining lifespan spans only a dozen to several decades at most. Global reserves of rare earth elements amount to at least... 1 Over 100 million tons, mined annually 15 Ten thousand tons—then the mineable lifespan is 666 year. It should be noted that the above-mentioned lifespans are all estimated static figures. In the future, as new recoverable resources are discovered and with advances in technology and increasing tolerance for higher prices of scarce resources, the dynamic lifespans will generally be extended—often significantly—including those of rare earth elements.

From the description of the basic data and fundamental situation above, we should conclude that rare earth elements, as well as other rare, precious, and dispersed metals, are... “ The true face of Mount Lu ” There are many resources on our planet that are even rarer than rare earth elements. Therefore, the natural conclusion is this: We must carefully protect the scarce, precious, and dispersed resources that are on the verge of depletion. We should also seek out resources with larger reserves and longer extraction lifespans to serve as substitutes for these depleting resources. Another important conclusion is that we need to develop new technologies that use rare earth elements—especially light rare earths—to replace even scarcer resources (elements).

　　 VI. Analysis of the Reasons for the Substitution of Rare-Earth Materials

　　For years, developed countries have been consistently calling for the substitution of rare earths with other raw materials, and many countries have stepped up their efforts to promote research on substituting rare earths and reducing their usage. 2011 This trend has become particularly pronounced in recent years. The reasons behind it can be summarized as follows:

　　One is Specific circumstances in the supply of rare earth raw materials From the last century 80 After the mid-20th century, China became the world’s largest supplier of rare earth elements. For a long time, China has been supplying the world with... 23% reserves, which meet global demand for rare earth elements. 90-97% To protect resources, reduce environmental pollution, and restore ecosystems, two mandatory plans have been implemented, along with export quotas and corresponding tariffs. Although the export quotas have largely met—indeed, even exceeded—foreign demand, and despite the enormous environmental and ecological sacrifices we’ve made, the major consumer countries of rare earths remain unsatisfied. They... WTO Relentlessly focusing on quotas and tariffs while simultaneously ramping up the extraction of rare-earth resources outside China—under the influence of this largely fictional notion that there’s a problem with the supply of rare earths—it’s hardly surprising that efforts to promote rare-earth substitutes are being vigorously pursued.

　　Second is The once-volatile price swings have triggered alternatives. This phenomenon is characterized by 2011 The year was typical. At the time, the exorbitant—indeed, sky-high—prices of rare earth elements dealt a severe blow to the rapidly developing new materials, exemplified by neodymium-iron-boron. The promising trend of replacing older materials such as ferrites with high-performance rare-earth materials suddenly reversed, leading to a return to the old materials and causing the neodymium-iron-boron market—which had been nurtured for more than two decades—to suffer significant losses. Reclaiming lost ground has since proven an arduous and difficult task.

　　Third is Rare-earth materials are being replaced due to changes in technology or technological integration. For new rare-earth materials that generally offer high cost performance, this situation is relatively uncommon. A typical example is the relevant technology developed by Gree Group. Gree + The air-conditioning motor and control technology—using synchronous reluctance motors and control techniques—that has been awarded the Special Prize for Scientific and Technological Progress by Guangdong Province boasts higher energy efficiency compared to rare-earth-based variable-frequency drives. 7.3% Improved demagnetization resistance 41% , cost reduction 22% Vibration and noise have also been significantly reduced. From a technical standpoint, this substitution constitutes a systemic replacement—meaning that the underlying technology or fundamental technological principles have been altered, leading to radical changes in both materials and equipment. Generally speaking, the entire chain—from materials to technology to equipment—is comprehensively replaced.

Fourth is Due to the relatively scarce resources and high prices of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium, there has been a surge in the development of alternative or reduced-use technologies. Fortunately, the supply of medium- and heavy-rare-earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium is no longer tight, and their prices are now acceptable, making it difficult for them to be completely replaced in the production of high-end neodymium-iron-boron magnets.

　 　7. Next, let’s do a brief summary.

　　 · The history of rare-earth development is a history of technological innovation—a history marked by the replacement of existing technologies, materials, and equipment with new rare-earth technologies, new materials, and new equipment.

　　 · The aforementioned alternatives include incremental improvements, primarily driven by advances in engineering technologies; and also include comprehensive or disruptive alternatives, primarily stemming from fundamental research or applied basic research.

　　 · The promotion and application of new rare-earth materials offer tremendous economic and ecological benefits, far exceeding the benefits generated by the rare-earth materials themselves.

　　 · Compared to certain rare, precious, and dispersed metals, rare earth elements are relatively abundant in the Earth's crust and have much longer usable lifespans. Consequently, the development of technologies for substituting and reducing the use of elements such as germanium, indium, bismuth, gallium, ruthenium, rhodium, and palladium has become even more important and urgent.

　　 · The substitution of rare-earth raw materials for conventional raw materials offers superior performance and cost-effectiveness, significantly enhancing the compliance performance of related products. Moreover, in general, rare-earth raw materials are difficult to replace; if they are replaced, performance will likely be compromised or cost-effectiveness will decline.

　　 · Enterprises across the rare-earth industry’s upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors should engage in positive interaction and work together to expand both the scope and volume of rare-earth applications in mid-to-high-end functional materials as well as high-quality structural materials. Special attention should be paid to restoring, nurturing, and developing markets for key rare-earth materials—particularly those represented by neodymium-iron-boron—to seize greater room for growth. Industry insiders should strive to prevent rare-earth materials from being replaced, and under no circumstances should they prematurely advocate for their replacement until stronger, superior next-generation materials emerge.