Chen Jiabin, a researcher at the China Institute of Land and Resources Economics, discusses China’s mineral resource situation in the global context and believes that China’s mining industry will become a high-barrier industry.

　　With the past mining industry “ The Golden Decade ” With ongoing development, new major mineral deposits continue to be discovered worldwide. Coupled with technological advancements, previously non-commercially viable deposits can now be economically developed and utilized. Under these circumstances, the global reserves of most bulk mineral resources are showing a growing trend.

　　 “ China is the world’s largest consumer of energy and mineral resources, and consumption of major mineral products remains at a high level—particularly for bulk minerals such as oil, iron ore, and copper. The proportion of imported resources in total consumption exceeds... 50% With the exception of a few traditionally advantageous minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum, nearly all of China’s major mineral resources are now heavily dependent on foreign sources, and the situation remains severe. ” Chen Jiabin, Director of the Resources Office and Researcher at the China Institute for Land and Resources Economics, recently made the following remarks in an interview with a reporter from the China Mining News:

Global Supply and Demand Pattern of Mineral Resources

　　In the global supply-demand relationship for mineral resources, the production and consumption of mineral products are closely linked to economic development. Since the end of World War II, nearly... 70 In that year, the global economy experienced multiple instances. “ Restore — Recovery — Development — Recession ” Due to cyclical patterns, the production and consumption of key mineral products have experienced multiple fluctuations. However, for most mineral products, the overall supply and demand have remained broadly balanced, with a slight surplus.

　　 “ Driven by investments in exploration funding and technology, the world continues to discover new major mineral deposits, resulting in a generally increasing trend in global reserves of bulk mineral resources. Based on currently proven mineral reserves and estimated at current extraction levels, the reserve-to-production ratios for the vast majority of global minerals have reached— 30 To 50 Meanwhile, technological advancements have comprehensively expanded the scope and potential of mineral resource exploration and development. A large number of unconventional energy sources, non-traditional minerals, co-associated minerals, low-grade ores, refractory ores, and previously difficult-to-meet industrial-grade deposits have now become economically viable for exploitation and development, significantly enhancing the security of mineral resource supply. ” Researcher Chen Jiabin analyzed global mineral resource reserves in this way. At the same time, he pointed out that because many metals possess characteristics of non-degradability and substitutability—meaning they can be recycled or replaced—this has significantly alleviated the demand for primary minerals, thereby improving the overall capacity to ensure the global supply of mineral resources.

　　The global pattern of mineral resource supply is directly linked to resource endowments. Countries and regions with relatively abundant resources tend to be the primary hubs for supply. However, major developed countries—benefiting from relatively stable resource demand and well-established recycling systems for secondary resources—have seen their resource supplies gradually decline, partly due to environmental protection considerations. By contrast, developing countries, driven by their need for economic development, are increasingly eager to exploit their own resources. Thus, propelled by different objectives and contexts, the current global mineral resource supply landscape has entered an era in which both developing and developed countries play equally important roles. Nevertheless, given the varying positions of mining industries within each country’s economy, the patterns and trajectories of mining development will differ across nations.

　　On the demand side, countries that have already achieved industrialization remain the primary drivers of global mineral resource consumption today; however, their share of global consumption is on a downward trend. As developing countries accelerate their industrialization processes, their overall resource demand continues to grow, and their share of global demand is steadily increasing. In particular, populous nations such as China and India are rapidly emerging as major hubs for the incremental growth in global demand for mineral products, thereby shifting the center of gravity of global mineral resource consumption. “ Move east ” The signs are obvious.

　　Mineral products produced by resource-rich countries are continuously flowing into developed countries and emerging developing countries through trade and other channels. Among these trade flows, the increase is primarily directed toward developing countries, resulting in a global trade pattern for key minerals such as iron, copper, and aluminum, with South America and Australia serving as major exporters and China, Japan, and South Korea as major importers.

Chen Jiabin analyzes that in the future... 10 Year～ 15 This year, the incremental global demand for energy, iron ore, copper, and aluminum will come from India and ASEAN countries, following China’s demand, and will drive the continued prosperity of the global mining industry. 2020 In the years to come, as countries such as India and Brazil gradually enter their peak industrialization periods, global demand for resources will once again surge, and resource prices will enter another upward cycle. 。

　　 Supply and Demand Situation of Major Domestic Mineral Products

　　Currently, coal accounts for approximately [a certain percentage] of China's total energy consumption. 66% , share of oil consumption 17.1% Low-carbon and non-fossil energy sources such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power account for approximately [a certain percentage] of the total. 16.9% China’s energy structure, which is dominated by fossil fuels, has not undergone any fundamental change. Among these fuels, petroleum is at the heart of China’s energy challenges and has become a key factor in China’s energy supply and demand. “ Complication ” The supply-demand gap will continue to widen. 2014 Year, net import of crude oil 30778 Ten thousand tons.

　　 “ Under the new normal, China’s growth rate in resource demand will decline across the board, which to some extent will also lead to a noticeable slowdown in global resource demand. However, China’s status as a major consumer is unlikely to change. 2020 Around the turn of the year, demand for China’s major mineral resources will gradually reach its peak. ” Chen Jiabin analyzed that, influenced by factors such as the adjustment of the energy consumption structure and the nationwide shift from coal to gas, China's natural gas consumption has expanded rapidly. 2014 Year, national apparent consumption of natural gas 1897 hundred million cubic meters, projected 2015 will reach the year 2000 hundred million cubic meters, compared to 2010 Doubled annually. As consumption scales expand, China’s natural gas sector will enter a period of rapid development, continuing to comprehensively advance natural gas exploration and development, and promoting rapid growth in natural gas reserves and production. It is expected that by... 2020 In the year, conventional natural gas production will reach 2100 Billions of cubic meters—shale gas production will reach 300 Billions of cubic meters—coalbed methane production will reach 200 Hundred million cubic meters.

　　With the major structural adjustments in China’s energy supply, non-fossil and renewable energy projects have been successively put into operation, producing a significant substitution effect on coal demand and thereby weakening coal’s dominant position. At the same time, economic development has entered a “new normal,” leading to a decline in demand for high-energy-consuming products. Given the ongoing weakening of coal’s central role in China’s energy consumption, as well as the pressing need to address overcapacity, Coal mines facing resource depletion, poor coal quality, high mining costs, and heavy historical burdens are bound to be phased out of the mining industry.

　　For another major category of minerals —— Iron ore—Chen Jiabin stated that China is the world’s largest producer of steel and consumer of iron ore. Steel demand has essentially reached its peak. However, the four major global iron ore producers continue to expand their production capacities. According to estimates of investment in projects already completed by the four major iron ore giants—Vale, Rio Tinto, and BHP—their plans include: 2017 The annual iron ore production capacity will reach, respectively, 4.6 hundred million tons, 3.6 hundred million tons, 3.6 100 million tons, FMG 2014/15 Fiscal year production and shipment volume are at 1.55 From 100 million tons to 1.60 Between 100 million tons.

　　Chen Jiabin believes that as major overseas players expand their production capacity, China’s stockpile of scrap steel is also steadily growing, and the substitution effect on primary iron ore consumption is becoming increasingly evident. With the gradual commissioning of new production capacities by international giants, the global supply-and-demand dynamics for iron ore have undergone a pivotal shift. In the future, the situation of oversupply in the global iron ore market will become even more pronounced, presenting China with greater opportunities to leverage overseas resources—including opportunities to reduce iron ore procurement costs. However, faced with record-high output of low-cost refined ore products from abroad and the growing impact of scrap steel recycling, domestic iron ore mines will experience significant disruptions in their production and operations.

Compared to the oversupply of China’s traditionally advantageous mineral resources, the scale of production and consumption of major nonferrous metal minerals in China continues to expand. However, the shortage of raw material supply has become particularly prominent and is now acting as a key constraint on the development of related industries. “ Bottleneck ” Among them, copper, aluminum, and nickel performed particularly well.

　　 Mineral Resource Market Dynamics and Outlook

　　 2014 Year, SNL The Metal Economic Group has released the global total exploration investment budget for non-ferrous metals as: 107.4 hundreds of millions of dollars, a year-on-year decrease 26% This is just the tip of the iceberg of the sharp decline in global geological exploration investment. In the same year, 4 Month, Global Geological Exploration Activity Index ( PAI ) It has touched a historic low, continuing the downward trend. ” Researcher Chen said.

　　He believes that, judging from the global financing landscape for exploration projects, 2014 The annual total is slightly below. 2013 at the annual level and exhibiting an unstable trend. Corresponding to the financing situation, the mining securities market remains sluggish. 2014 The Toronto Stock Exchange Global Mining Index has been experiencing volatile downward trends, and the global financing landscape for solid minerals remains unstable.

　　Junior mineral exploration companies are facing significant challenges, with a sharp decline in the proportion of exploration budgets. Fixed-asset investment in the mining industry has slowed down, and global base metals are currently in a phase of inventory digestion. The global economy remains in a period of deep adjustment; although it has continued its recovery trend, development remains uneven. While advanced economies are showing signs of improvement, emerging economies are under greater pressure, experiencing slow economic recovery and heightened instability and uncertainty. This, in turn, is affecting the actual demand for global mineral resources, leading to an oversupply of bulk minerals, a general decline in prices, and impacting the fundamental supply-and-demand dynamics of resource markets. As a result, the downward trend in the global mining sector remains unchanged.

　　In the mineral commodities market, prices of mineral products are primarily determined by factors such as supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar index, and inventory levels. Influenced by global macroeconomic conditions, mineral commodity prices have generally been on a downward trend, with divergent price movements observed among major non-ferrous metal commodities. Copper, lead, and tin—whose supply exceeds demand—are experiencing volatile and declining prices; aluminum prices, which have seen significant inventory reduction, have stopped falling and begun to rebound; zinc prices have risen due to reduced supply; and nickel prices have followed a pattern of initial upward movement followed by a subsequent decline.

　　Researcher Chen Jiabin believes that, influenced by the international environment, China's production, supply, and sales of major mineral products, as well as the growth rate of fixed-asset investment in the mining sector, continue to slow down, showing a clear downward trend—some even entering negative growth territory. As China is undergoing industrial restructuring and optimization, demand for mineral products from other sectors is unlikely to surge significantly in the short term. Moreover, with increasingly stringent environmental requirements for resource development and rising development costs, the mining industry will become a high-barrier sector, facing severe challenges under the new normal. The development of the mining industry must proactively adapt to the new normal—relying first on reform and second on innovation. In shifting approaches and adjusting structures, we must use modern technologies and equipment to transform traditional mining industries, thereby promoting structural adjustments and industrial upgrades in the mining sector.