China’s economic development has entered a “new normal.” How should we view the demand for mineral resources under this new normal? What are the distinctive characteristics of mineral resource demand during this period? And when is it likely that China’s demand for key mineral resources will reach its peak? To address these questions, our reporter recently interviewed Professor Wang Anjian from the Global Mineral Resources Strategic Research Center at the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.

　　 To understand the patterns of mineral resource consumption.

　　Professor Wang Anjian believes that industrialization is the process by which humanity transforms natural resources into wealth—a process characterized by massive consumption of natural resources, rapid accumulation of social wealth, swift economic growth, and a substantial improvement in people's living standards. When infrastructure development, urbanization, and social wealth accumulation reach a certain level, industrialization enters a mature stage, and significant changes occur in the economic structure, the consumption of critical mineral resources begins to decline, and the rate of energy consumption starts to slow down.

　　Professor Wang Anjian said that when we study the historical consumption patterns of mineral resources in developed countries, we examine the per capita consumption of major mineral resources—including primary energy, steel, cement, copper, and aluminum—and compare it with per capita consumption levels. GDP After an in-depth study of the relationship, we discovered some regular patterns: resource consumption and economic development exhibit a ... “S” The trajectory of morphological evolution reflects certain inherent regularities in the relationship between resource consumption and economic development, corresponding to different stages of economic growth. “S” The trajectory of resource consumption forms the takeoff point, inflection point (period of rapid growth, period of slow growth), and zero-growth point for mineral resources. Based on empirical evidence from several industrialized countries, the peak per capita resource consumption tends to cluster relatively closely. Steel: per capita GDP To reach 1 Ten thousand US dollars ~1.2 ten thousand U.S. dollars (purchasing power parity, the same below); copper: per capita GDP To reach 1.7 Ten thousand US dollars ~1.9 Ten thousand U.S. dollars; aluminum: per capita GDP To reach 1.8 Ten thousand US dollars ~2 Ten thousand U.S. dollars; Energy: Per capita GDP To reach 2 Ten thousand US dollars ~2.2 Ten thousand U.S. dollars.

　　Specifically, the takeoff point for mineral resource consumption—whether it’s energy or other bulk mineral resources. , The takeoff points for per capita resource consumption are all concentrated on per capita. GDP2500 U.S. dollar ~3000 The U.S. dollar. This period perfectly coincides with the nation’s industrialization takeoff phase. , It marks a country’s transition from an agricultural society to an industrial one, during which the consumption of mineral resources begins to accelerate. The rapid growth in mineral resource consumption in the United Kingdom is... 1887 Year ~1899 Year, the United States is 1880 Year ~1888 Year, Japan roughly in 1953 Year ~1956 Year.

　　The inflection point in mineral resource consumption—the turning point at which the growth rate of per capita mineral resource consumption shifts from high to low. Due to the differing properties and uses of various resources, the location of this inflection point varies, each corresponding to a major period of structural transformation in the economy. Steel and cement are structural materials, and their inflection points are concentrated around per capita levels. GDP6000 U.S. dollar ~7000 Dollar time, Corresponding to the peak period of social infrastructure development, the turning point in per capita energy consumption is concentrated on per capita... GDP1 Ten thousand US dollars ~1.2 Ten thousand Between the U.S. dollar and other currencies, this corresponds to the onset of a major structural transformation in the economy. Subsequently, the growth rate of per capita energy demand began to slow down.

　　The zero-growth point for mineral resource consumption. From an international perspective, the zero-growth point for per capita consumption of steel and cement is concentrated at the per capita level. GDP1 Ten thousand US dollars ~1.2 The period of tens of thousands of US dollars; the point at which per capita energy consumption showed zero growth occurred at per capita... GDP2 Ten thousand US dollars ~2.2 Ten thousand In terms of the U.S. dollar, it marks the beginning of the post-industrial stage.

Professor Wang Anjian introduced that, according to per capita data from developed countries, GDP Research on the intrinsic relationship between infrastructure development, social wealth accumulation, and mineral resource consumption suggests that, compared to China’s overall trajectory of entering the mid-to-late stage of industrialization, our country has already reached a relatively high level in terms of infrastructure development, social wealth accumulation, and urbanization. Consequently, the pace of growth in China’s economic demand for bulk mineral resources will now slow down. The heavy industry sector, which relies heavily on the consumption of bulk minerals, is currently suffering from overcapacity due to weakening demand for downstream products, and thus needs to shift gears in its growth trajectory and renew its driving forces for development.

　　 The mining industry is currently in a period of adjustment; the future... 5~10 China's demand for mineral resources will continue to grow slowly, so mining companies need to plan ahead.

　　Professor Wang Anjian explained that China has entered a mid-stage transition and adjustment period in its industrialization process, and demand for major bulk mineral resources is still growing slowly. will be 2025 They will reach their peak one after another around the turn of the year. Although the growth rate of resource demand is slowing down, resource demand will still remain at a high level, and the overall volume of resource demand will continue to be enormous.

　　Professor Wang Anjian believes that per capita consumption of mineral resources serves as an indicator of a country's economic development level. Judging from China's current stage of economic development, with the exception of steel consumption, which has essentially reached its peak, demand for other major mineral resources—whether in terms of total volume or per capita consumption—is still rising slowly, albeit at a slower pace. We are now in a period of decelerating growth, and there has been a temporary situation of oversupply. Professor Wang Anjian does not agree that the mining industry is currently transitioning into a sunset industry, as some people claim. On the one hand, considering China's current social wealth accumulation, infrastructure development, and urbanization levels—the demand for mineral resources—many critical minerals, excluding steel and cement (mineral products), continue to see slow but steady increases in both total demand and per capita consumption. For instance, in recent years, the total demand and per capita consumption of important minerals such as copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, sulfur, phosphorus, potassium, nickel, antimony, and tin have all continued to grow gradually. The peak demand for most of these critical minerals has yet to be reached. China's demand for major bulk mineral resources will... 2025 They will gradually reach their peak around the turn of the year. Even after reaching the peak, resource demand will remain at a high level for some time. On the other hand, as China... “ The Belt and Road ” With the implementation of strategic initiatives—and particularly the rise of ASEAN countries and India—demand for mineral resources will continue to grow. Looking at the longer term, the outlook for the mining industry remains promising.

　　Professor Wang Anjian predicts that the total peak demand for minerals will be very high. The peak in steel consumption is expected to occur around... 7 Hundred million tons ~7.5 hundred million tons; the peak of energy consumption is expected to occur around 2030 Year, approximately consumption 40 hundred million ~42 hundred million tons; China's peak copper consumption is roughly at... 2022 Year ~2025 Year, approximately consumption 1300 Ten thousand tons ~1500 Ten thousand tons; the peak consumption of aluminum is roughly at 2022 Year ~2025 Year, Consumption 2700 Ten thousand tons ~2900 10,000 tons; the peak consumption of lead and zinc is roughly at... 2022 Around the year, approximately lead consumption 680 Ten thousand tons ~700 Ten thousand tons—zinc consumption is approximately... 770 Ten thousand tons ~790 Ten thousand tons.

　　In short, China’s demand for mineral resources will continue to grow slowly in the future, and consumption of many key mineral resources will remain at the world’s highest level for a considerable period of time—at least for the foreseeable future. 10 Year ~15 Year.

　　The current problems facing the mining industry—such as declining mineral prices, operational difficulties for some enterprises, and generally tough times—are attributable to the fact that the pace of global mining capacity expansion has outstripped the growth rate of demand. In recent years, many major global mining groups and companies have been overly optimistic in their assessment of Chinese demand, assuming that demand would rise steadily and rapidly. As a result, they expanded their production capacity very quickly, leading to a situation of oversupply. Consequently, mineral prices have fallen, placing tremendous pressure on the industry’s development.

He believes this is a period of adjustment—a transitional phase for the mining industry, rather than a decline. During this period, some companies may shrink or be phased out, while others will need to undergo transformation. Those enterprises with high-quality resource endowments and strong competitive capabilities will emerge and thrive through this process.

　　 “ The Belt and Road ” The implementation of the strategy and the continuous enhancement of infrastructure development in neighboring countries will generate a pull effect on demand for mineral resources.

　　So, what does the future outlook for global demand for mineral resources look like? Professor Wang Anjian says that from a long-term perspective, as... “ The Belt and Road ” The implementation of the strategy and the continuous improvement of infrastructure development levels in neighboring countries will generate a significant boost to resource demand. The government must firmly and unswervingly support related industries. “ Go out. ” Development.

　　From the perspective of regional resource demand, we should closely monitor India and ASEAN. Currently, both India and ASEAN are in a phase of accelerated economic development and mineral consumption. India’s steel consumption... 3 Nearly annual growth 1000 Ten thousand tons, its GDP The growth rate is in the double digits, and its consumption of mineral resources is accelerating rapidly. Currently, ASEAN is at a stage of economic development that is highly dependent on and experiencing the fastest growth in mineral resource consumption. Among the ten ASEAN countries, some are growing even faster than others, and they have the potential to become the next major global demand drivers for mineral resources. However, their demand is unlikely to boost global consumption to the same extent as China’s.

　　In response to the current reality—where global supply of certain mineral resources exceeds demand and many enterprises are struggling to stay afloat—Professor Wang Anjian believes that this situation presents both opportunities and challenges for businesses. During this period, small mining companies with poor resource quality and high levels of pollution may be phased out, while those with superior resource endowments and lower costs will continue to grow. What are the major international mining companies doing right now? They’re divesting high-cost or “non-performing” assets to prepare for the next round of competition. China’s endowment of bulk mineral resources is not particularly favorable, and thus we need... “ Go out. ” Fully leverage overseas resources, integrate into the international mining market, and continuously enhance corporate competitiveness. However, China currently suffers from a severe lack of strategic planning at the macro level.

　　 “ The decline in mineral product prices has affected Chinese enterprises. “ Go out. ” Equity participation, mergers and acquisitions, capacity transfer, and capital expansion offer excellent opportunities. However, it’s crucial to note that we must secure high-quality, cost-effective resources while minimizing risks to the greatest extent possible. ” Professor Wang Anjian concluded by emphasizing: