Interpretation of the Land Market Performance in the Third Quarter of 2016
Release time:
2016-11-16
Source:
In the first three quarters, the national land market generally showed... “ Total volume stabilizing, regional divergence. ” The operational situation is characterized by significant divergence in the national real estate land market, where destocking efforts coexist with high-priced land transactions, making regulatory adjustments increasingly challenging. On the one hand, we must guard against the rise in social instability factors triggered by a rapid surge in the real estate market; on the other hand, we must also be vigilant about the financial systemic risks that could arise from a rapid downturn in the real estate market.
(1) The decline in the total land supply has narrowed, and market operations are gradually stabilizing. Affected by factors such as the continued improvement of macroeconomic indicators and the boost from infrastructure and real estate investment, the national land market gradually stabilized in the third quarter. 1-9 Month, nationwide supply of state-owned construction land 31.88 Ten thousand hectares, a year-on-year decrease. 4.6% The decline has slightly widened compared to the first half of the year. 2.3 percentage points, but the decline has noticeably narrowed compared to the same period last year. Over the past five years ( 2012 To 2016 In the third quarter of the year, land supply increased year-on-year by: 9.2% growth 4.4% , decline 17.1% , decline 12.3% , decline 4.6% , overall presentation “ First increase, then decrease; the magnitude of the decline is narrowing. ” the situation. Among the total supply of construction land, the stock of existing construction land... 20.64 Ten thousand hectares, accounting for the proportion of the total. 64.7% , higher than the same period last year 2.9 Percentage points, representing a relatively high level in recent years. , Reflecting the impact of supply-side reform policies, localities are leveraging the contribution of land as a supply factor through... “ Control the total amount, tap into existing stock, and squeeze out excess traffic. ” Promote economic development.
(2) Although the supply of Class III land use has decreased year-on-year, it is gradually bottoming out and recovering. 1-9 In the month, the supply of land for three categories—industrial and mining, warehousing, real estate, and infrastructure—was: 8.49 Ten thousand hectares, 7.10 Ten thousand hectares and 16.30 10,000 hectares, a year-on-year decrease. 0.6% 、 7.8% and 5.2% . After experiencing 2014、2015 Year 2 After a year of decline, industrial, mining, and warehousing land, as well as real estate land, are bottoming out and beginning to recover, while infrastructure land remains stable.
Looking at changes in the regional land supply structure, the land supply volumes in the eastern, central, and western regions increased year-on-year, respectively. 1.5% Reduce 5.6% Reduce 9.2% Compared to the first half of the year, the growth rate in the eastern region has slowed down. 7.7 Percentage points; the decline in the central region has widened. 5.1 Percentage points; the decline in the western region has narrowed. 3 percentage points. In terms of proportion, the land-use proportions for the eastern, central, and western regions are as follows: 36.4% 、 25.6% 、 38.0% Compared with the same period last year, the proportion of land use in the eastern region has increased. 2.2 percentage points; the proportion of land use in the central region has declined. 0.3 percentage points; the proportion of land use in the western region has declined. 1.9 Percentage points—The pace of recovery in land demand in the eastern region is faster than that in the central and western regions.
(3) The area of land granted and the transaction prices have appeared. “ Quantity decreases, price increases. ” Over 70% of provinces saw price increases. Affected by the shift in macro financial and monetary policies toward an easing stance, 1-9 In the month, the nationwide area of land transferred and the transaction value were as follows: 14.30 Ten thousand hectares and 2.28 Trillion yuan, down year-on-year. 4.8% And growth 24.8% Meanwhile, during the same period last year, both saw declines exceeding... 25% Compared to the first half of the year, the area of land transferred turned from positive to negative year-on-year, while the amount of land transfer revenue remained flat year-on-year. Nationwide, there are... 23 Land transfer revenues increased year-on-year in several provinces, with Zhejiang, Hainan, Anhui, Ningxia, and Gansu recording particularly significant growth. 8 All provinces experienced varying degrees of year-on-year decline, including Liaoning, Beijing, Hunan, and Chongqing.
(4) The supply of real estate land continues to stabilize. 1-9 Month, nationwide supply of real estate land use 7.10 Ten thousand hectares, a year-on-year decrease. 7.8% 。 By land use category, residential land supply 4.79 Ten thousand hectares, a year-on-year decrease. 8.4% ; Supply of commercial and service land 2.32 Ten thousand hectares, a year-on-year decrease. 6.6% From a structural perspective, the proportion of residential land within real estate land use has shown a stabilizing trend recently. 5 In recent years, the proportion of housing land to total real estate land in our country has remained stable at... 66%-68% Meanwhile, this reflects that the proportion of real estate land use in our country is becoming more rational through market-based allocation.
Currently, the macroeconomic situation is generally stable with steady progress and improving trends in some key indicators. However, the foundation for economic growth remains fragile, and the economy’s endogenous momentum in the market is still insufficient. Overall, the national land market shows... “ Total volume stabilizing, regional divergence. ” The operational situation.
Next, we must continue to leverage our institutional advantages and closely monitor macroeconomic developments as well as trends in the land market. First, we need to pay close attention to how changes in macro-control policies affect the operation of the land market. For instance, the impact of macro-control policies—particularly financial policies—on land market dynamics should be closely observed. The state may introduce financial support measures aimed at boosting the real economy, thereby reducing excess capital that could otherwise lead to overheating in real estate investment, and potentially allowing demand for land to gradually stabilize and grow in the future. At the same time, we should also keep a close eye on land policy needs in emerging industries under the country’s strategic innovation initiatives—including sectors such as pharmaceuticals, creative industries, cultural tourism, headquarters R&D, leisure and elderly care, and facility agriculture—and strengthen targeted regulation of the land market accordingly.
Second, we must adhere to city-specific policies and differentiated regulation, thereby effectively promoting supply-side structural reform. First, we need to carefully clarify the role and potential contributions of land in supply-side reform. By innovating regulatory mechanisms, exploring new land transaction models, and enhancing regulatory standards, we can fully leverage land’s macroeconomic regulatory and foundational保障 functions, and effectively advance the central government’s initiatives. “ Reduce overcapacity, reduce inventory, lower costs, and address weak links. ” Implementation of the goal. Secondly, we must adhere to it. “ Adopt city-specific policies and implement differentiated regulation. ” Actively cooperate with local governments and relevant departments to effectively regulate the real estate market. Urge and guide localities to fully respect the laws governing market operations, and adopt macroeconomic regulation measures in a timely manner by closely monitoring market trends and conducting timely analysis and assessments. Reasonably formulate and publicize land supply plans to stabilize market expectations; strengthen post-supply supervision of land to promote efficient development; proactively disclose information and enhance public opinion guidance—these measures will effectively foster the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of the market.