Recently, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released “China’s Energy Outlook.” 2018–2050 》Research Report (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). The Report points out that China’s overall energy demand has now reached its peak and is expected to trend downward.

　　According to the report’s forecast, it is expected that by... 2020 In [year], China's total energy demand will decline to... 44.7 100 million tons of standard coal, to 2030 Year, will decline to 41.8 hundred million tons of standard coal, and by... 2050 Next year, it will further decline to 38.7 100 million tons of standard coal, and has basically stabilized.

　　Notably, driven by China’s policy of reducing coal consumption and increasing gas usage, natural gas has become the fastest-growing energy source in China in recent years.

　　The report indicates that in the future... 30 This year, China’s natural gas consumption will continue to grow rapidly. It is projected that by... 2050 China's natural gas consumption demand is expected to grow to over... 8000 Yi Fang, by then the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption will rise to over... 25% Based on this demand forecast, the report concludes that in the future... 30 In the coming years, China’s demand for energy imports will gradually shift from being dominated by oil to being dominated by natural gas. It is projected that by... 2050 China's natural gas imports will increase to over... 6300 Yi Fang, the import dependency has reached... 78.5% 。

　　 “ China’s energy transition and security require the international market. ” Liu Qiang, chief researcher of the project team and director of the Resource Technology Economics Research Office at the Institute of Quantitative and Technological Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter. He pointed out that due to the techno-economic characteristics of natural gas production, sales, and transportation, natural gas requires large-scale infrastructure support to ensure a stable supply, and it is more vulnerable to external shocks and human interference than oil, coal, and electricity.

　　Therefore, the future 30 In the coming year, natural gas will be the primary factor influencing China's energy security. “ It is necessary for our country to strengthen the development of domestic natural gas transmission and distribution infrastructure, explore new integrated land-and-sea transportation modes for natural gas, and promote the construction of an international natural gas interconnection network—especially in the Asia-Pacific region—thereby enhancing the accessibility of natural gas in the domestic market. ”

　　With regard to electricity consumption, the report suggests that in the future... 30 In the coming years, as the processes of industrialization and urbanization come to an end, demand for high-energy-consuming goods will decline, and consequently, electricity demand is also expected to trend downward, projected to fall from... 2017 The year's appointment 6.4 Trillion kilowatt-hours decreased to 2050 of the year 4.47 Trillion kilowatt-hours.

　　In this context, China will undoubtedly face an overcapacity in power generation. Currently, overcapacity has already emerged in Northeast China, the Bohai Rim region, and Southwest China. As China’s “new normal” continues, the report predicts that further overcapacity in electricity is virtually certain. To address this issue, the report recommends that our country should leverage... “ The Belt and Road ” We propose establishing regional electricity trading centers in the Northeast and Southwest regions, and fostering cross-border power interconnection and cooperation with neighboring countries such as Russia’s Far East, Mongolia, North Korea, and countries in the Indochinese Peninsula, thereby achieving a win-win situation.