To 2015 The annual growth rate will further slow down, with steel demand at... 7 2 100 million tons, up year-on-year 1 41% ; Crude steel production is 8 34 100 million tons, up year-on-year 1 71% 。

　　One week ago, Australian Treasurer Joey · Hoki said that iron ore prices could fall to: 60 U.S. dollar / ton. This figure is significantly lower than the per-ton amount proposed in the government budget. 92 The estimated value of the U.S. dollar.

　　Citibank recently warned that the decline in international iron ore prices could be larger than many people expect, potentially pushing Australia’s government budget deficit for this fiscal year further into the red. 380 hundreds of millions of Australian dollars, and if this continues, the deficit could approach... 400 Hundred million Australian dollars.

　　This year 5 The price of iron ore is still... 100 As the U.S. dollar hovered around a key level, Credit Suisse lowered its support level for spot iron ore prices to 80 U.S. dollar / tons, the market remained unconvinced. As expected, after several months of volatile declines, in... 9 Late in the month, Pushe. 62% The iron ore index falls below 80 Dollar threshold.

　　The price of commodities is primarily driven by supply and demand factors. Since the global financial crisis, the global economy has continued to recover weakly, and emerging market economies have slowed down their growth rates, leading to a significant decline in demand for iron ore.

　　China is the world’s largest consumer and importer of iron ore. 2014 In the context of a slowing domestic economic growth rate and declining export growth, downstream steel industries such as construction, machinery, and automotive have also seen a slowdown in their growth rates. Although China's steel consumption has increased somewhat, the rate of increase has significantly slowed down.

　　The Metallurgical Industry Planning Institute predicts that, 2014 China's steel demand for the year was 7.1 100 million tons, up year-on-year 2.45% ; Crude steel production is 8.2 100 million tons, up year-on-year 5.26% To 2015 The annual growth rate will further slow down, with steel demand at... 7.2 100 million tons, up year-on-year 1.41% ; Crude steel production is 8.34 100 million tons, up year-on-year 1.71% 。

　　Earlier this year 11 Over the past month, China’s cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates have been... 84577.00 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 13.36% , the growth rate has slowed down; the average unit price of imports is 103.22 U.S. dollar / Ton, down year-on-year 20.09% It is showing a sustained downward trend. Clearly, the growth rate of cumulative iron ore imports has slowed, and the average import unit price has declined month-on-month.

　　It is generally believed that, considering the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for steel mills, “ Winter stockpile ” Seasonally, based on past experience with imported mineral volumes, imports are still expected to increase in the fourth quarter. However... 11 However, the month’s import data surprised the market; iron ore and its concentrates imported that month amounted to... 6740 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 13.41% , down month-on-month 15.10% ; The average unit price of imports is 79.67 U.S. dollar / Ton, down year-on-year 37.92% , down month-on-month 3.70% Iron ore imports have stopped rising and are now falling from their high levels.

　　Analysts believe that, 2014 Year 11 The current month is traditionally a low season, with weak downstream demand and continued high production from major international mining giants. As a result, the iron ore market is experiencing an oversupply, causing import ore prices to fall repeatedly. Meanwhile, domestic blast furnace operating rates remain relatively low. 12 Iron ore demand is unlikely to see a significant increase this month; however, given the improving profitability, crude steel production is also unlikely to decline sharply. It is expected that... 12 Iron ore imports will stabilize and fluctuate this month.

　　In addition, inventory levels are also a key factor weighing down iron ore prices. Since the beginning of this year, iron ore inventories at major coastal ports across China have... 1 Over 100 million tons. According to statistics from the Steel Home website, as of... 12 Moon 19 Day, nationwide 44 The inventory of iron ore at the major port is approximately 10345 Ten thousand tons. However, a relevant official from Qingdao Port told a reporter from the China Securities Journal that currently, Qingdao Port’s iron ore inventory stands at... 1300 Around 10,000 tons, compared to... 7 The month declined by nearly 200 Ten thousand tons.

　　Meng Xiangchao, from the Fubao Iron Ore Research Team, stated that pressure on iron ore port inventories is easing, but the situation has not yet reached a turning point. Traders and steel mills have simply become more cautious in securing shipments. The downstream steel market remains sluggish and shows signs of further weakening. Steel mills’ procurement of raw materials has become even more subdued, and market sentiment is overwhelmingly pessimistic. Currently, most buyers are hesitant to make bulk purchases rashly. As a result, mine tenders and platform transactions have significantly declined. It is expected that the volume of resources arriving at ports next week will continue to decrease, and port inventories are likely to keep falling.