2017 In recent years, as supply-side structural reforms have continued to deepen, the coal market’s once severe situation of oversupply has been reversed. , Coal production and consumption have both increased, and the overall market supply and demand are basically balanced. Prices have been fluctuating within a reasonable range, and enterprises’ economic performance has significantly improved. A long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the industry is gradually taking shape and becoming more refined, laying an important foundation for the coal industry to further resolve overcapacity and achieve sustainable development.

　　2017 Throughout the year, China’s coal economy maintained an overall stable performance, with coal consumption showing a phased recovery and coal production returning to growth.

　　First, coal consumption has seen a phased rebound. 2013 For the past three consecutive years, national coal consumption has been declining. 2016 Turned from decline to rise in the second half of the year, 2017 Coal consumption has continued to rise since the beginning of the year. Preliminary estimates indicate that... 1 to 10 Monthly national coal consumption is approximately 32.6 100 million tons, up year-on-year 3.7% Among them, the coal consumption volumes in the four major industries—power, steel, building materials, and chemical industry—are as follows: 15.95、5.24、4.2、2.32 hundreds of millions of tons, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7% 、 2.2% 、 -4.1% and 6.9% Coal consumption is expected to grow throughout the year. 1% Left and right.

　　Second, coal production has resumed growth. China’s coal production has... 2014 The decline has continued for three consecutive years starting from that year. The downward trend in coal production has persisted until... 2017 Year 2 Month, 3 Starting from the month, the nation's coal production shifted from negative growth to positive growth, and thereafter... 10 The moon continues to grow. 1 to 12 The monthly cumulative raw coal production of enterprises above designated size nationwide was 34.45 100 million tons, up year-on-year 3.2% 。

　　Third, coal imports continue to rise. 2016 Nationwide coal imports turned from decline to growth throughout the year, with total imports for the year... 2.56 100 million tons, an increase year-on-year. 5145 Ten thousand tons, growth 25.2% 。2017 Coal imports continued to grow this year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs. 2017 Year 1 to 12 Monthly cumulative national coal imports 27090.1 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 6.1% ; Export 817 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 7%。

　　Fourth, coal transportation has increased significantly. 2017 Nationwide railway coal transportation continued to grow significantly year after year. 1 to 12 Monthly coal shipments by rail nationwide 21.55 100 million tons, up year-on-year 13.3% 。 2017 Coal shipments from the port also increased significantly this year. 1 to 12 Monthly cumulative coal shipments from major ports nationwide 7.27 100 million tons, up year-on-year 12.9% 。

　　Fifth, coal inventories have declined. According to quick statistics, 2017 Year 12 At the end of the month, coal inventories at coal enterprises nationwide were... 6300 10,000 tons, down from the same period last year. 24.9% Coal inventories of key power generation enterprises 6499 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease. 47 Ten thousand tons, days of inventory available 15 Tian. Coal inventory at major shipping ports 3460 10,000 tons, down year-on-year 2.8% Overall, coal inventories across the entire society are declining.

　　Sixth, coal prices have slightly declined and are tending to stabilize. Taking thermal coal as an example, 2016–2017 Over the past two years, domestic coal prices have shown... “ factory ” The trend of character form changes, prices are at 2016 Year 7 After the moon rose rapidly, 2017 The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has remained relatively stable throughout the year. 2016 At the beginning of the year ( 1 Moon 6 Day) The lowest point is at 371 Yuan / ton, to 11 The monthly figure has rebounded to its highest level. 607 Yuan / ton (11 Moon 2 day ) , up from the beginning of the year 236 Yuan, up. 63.6% 。2017 Since the beginning of the year, the index has shown a trend toward stabilization. 12 Moon 27 The daily price index is 577 Yuan / Ton.

　　Qinhuangdao Port 5500 The spot price of high-calorie power coal since 2016 Year 11 Moon 7 Daily reach 700 Yuan / It declined after reaching a ton. ,2017 Since the year, basically in 550-650 Yuan / Fluctuating between tons.

　　Seventh, industry profitability has significantly improved. 2017 The national coal enterprises above designated size achieved main business revenue for the year. 27704.6 100 million yuan, up year-on-year 25.4% Total profit 2959.3 100 million yuan, up year-on-year 290.5% 。

　　Eighth, coal investment continued to decline year-on-year. From... 2013 Since [year], fixed-asset investment in the national coal mining and beneficiation industry has been declining continuously. By [date]... 2017 Year 6 It once returned to positive growth after a month, but... 9 After the month, investment in coal once again showed a decline, and coal investment for the entire year was completed. 2648 100 million yuan, down year-on-year 12.3% 。

　　The international coal market is showing a trend of comprehensive recovery.

　　 2014–2016 Global coal production has declined for three consecutive years. 2017 Since the beginning of this year, the global coal market has shown a trend of comprehensive recovery, which is reflected in several key aspects: First, international coal prices have risen; second, global coal production has increased; third, international import and export trade has surged; fourth, coal profits at major mining companies have doubled; and fifth, coal investment and asset mergers and acquisitions have become increasingly active.

　　From the perspective of global coal prices, the price of thermal coal at the Port of Newcastle in Australia has... 2017 Less than at the beginning of the year 50 U.S. dollar / tons, rising to the present 125.6% ，2018 Since last year, this price has stabilized after fluctuating at a high level, and... 70~100 The U.S. dollar is fluctuating, but currently shows an upward trend. International coking coal market prices... 2017 Since the year, affected by “ Debbie ” Affected by factors such as hurricanes, prices have experienced relatively sharp fluctuations, generally ranging throughout the year. 200 U.S. dollar / Around a ton, significantly higher than 2016 Annual average.

　　From the perspective of coal production, the output of major coal-producing countries is all increasing, with the growth rate being... 4%~5% , former U.S. 10 Monthly growth 3.4% , India 3.4% , Russia 6.8% , Kazakhstan is 11.1% , Mongolia is 57.1% , Poland declines 1.76% , Ukraine declines 16.4% 。

　　Looking at coal import and export trends: With the exception of Australia, where exports declined due to climate impacts, the export volumes of other major coal-exporting countries are on the rise. Previously... 10 Month, Indonesia's exports grow. 6% , U.S. growth 70% , Russia's growth 13.9% Colombia's exports grow. 20.1% , South Africa growth 11.6% , Mongolia's growth 51.8% 。

　　On the import side, China 1 to 11 Monthly coal imports 2.48 100 million tons, up year-on-year 8.5% , India 1~9 Monthly coal imports 1.42 100 million tons, down year-on-year 10.8% , but from 9、10、11 Looking at the monthly figures, India’s coal imports have seen a substantial increase. For the full year, India’s coal imports may remain flat compared to the previous year, potentially reaching— 2 Hundred million tons. Former Japan 10 months of imports 1.59 100 million tons, unchanged from the same period last year. South Korea saw growth. 13.9% , Taiwan, China, has grown. 7.3% , European Union 28 Hard coal imports in the first half of the year 8460 Ten thousand tons, up year-on-year 9.4% 。

　　In addition, coal profits at major mining companies have doubled. BHP primarily exports coking coal. 2017 The pre-tax profit of the coal sector for the fiscal year is 38 hundreds of millions of dollars, an increase compared to the previous fiscal year. 4.96 Twice; Glencore is the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal. 2017 Profit achieved in the first half of the year 67 hundreds of millions of dollars, an increase compared to the same period last year 68% Investment in coal and asset acquisitions by some enterprises are becoming increasingly active.

　　2017 In recent years, regional differentiation in the global coal market has intensified: markets in Europe and the U.S. have continued to shrink, while the East Asian market has remained largely stable. Meanwhile, coal demand in Southeast Asia and South Asia has expanded rapidly. 2018 The trend may continue this year.

　　2018 We must continue to push forward with capacity reduction in the coal industry this year.

　　Based on our understanding of the international and domestic coal supply and consumption situation, we recommend:

　　First, 2018 We must continue to advance the reduction of coal overcapacity this year. In accordance with the plan for resolving excess capacity, “ 13th Five-Year Plan ” Our country is going to the period. 8 With coal production capacity exceeding 100 million tons, most of the current capacity-reduction tasks have already been completed. The next step is to replace this capacity. 5 Hundred million tons—that means we’ll have to keep going and keep growing. So, 2018 We still need to continue reducing overcapacity this year.

　　Second, refine the policy for capacity reduction. 2017 The capacity-reduction tasks since last year have fallen heavily on many operating coal mines, making the task particularly challenging. Issues such as workforce resettlement and the handling of assets and debts need to be addressed carefully, and more comprehensive supporting policies are required to provide adequate assistance.

　　Third, carefully consider increasing new coal production capacity. “ 13th Five-Year Plan ” Our country has entered a new stage of development. Whether it’s the shift in growth models, the restructuring of the economic structure, or the call for an energy revolution to transform the energy mix, the intensity of coal consumption should be declining. Yet, the underlying risk of oversupply in coal remains. To avoid another situation of overcapacity, coal enterprises must make rational choices and absolutely refrain from blindly expanding new production capacity.