In recent years, geopolitical tensions in regions such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine conflict), and the Korean Peninsula—coupled with escalating friction between the United States and countries like Iran—have prompted investors to view gold as the “ultimate safe-haven asset.” For instance, in August 2024, the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran drove gold prices up by 1.5% in a single day, reaching $2,472 per ounce. According to forecasts by the World Gold Council, if geopolitical risks intensify further in 2025, gold prices could continue to surge.

In the Middle East, boosted by factors such as the issuance of 2025 gold coins by the Turkish State Mint, Turkey’s retail demand for gold investments nearly doubled in January compared to the previous month. However, compared to the same period in 2024, demand fell by nearly half. After mid-January, new demand slowed significantly, and by the end of the month, domestic gold prices in Turkey began trading at a discount relative to international gold prices—this marked price discount last occurred back in June 2024, serving as clear evidence of the slowdown in demand.

As of the time this report was written, thanks to bullish gold price expectations attracting new capital flows into gold, domestic gold prices in Turkey had already shifted to a premium over international gold prices by early February. By contrast, due to weak demand in the Asian region, local gold prices in Dubai fell and now trade at a discount of $10–$15 per ounce relative to international gold prices.